UK Counter-Terrorism (merged thread)

[davidbfpo]

Nine days after the attack there has been a shift in the official police stance, as indicated in a BBC report which starts with:

Manchester suicide attacker Salman Abedi bought most of the components used to make the bomb himself, police have said.Many of the bomber's movements and actions were "carried out alone" in the four days prior to the attack, Russ Jackson, head of the North West counter terrorism unit, said.
But police have yet to rule out whether he was part of a wider network.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40103563

There remain eleven men in custody, five have been released and the law allows them to be kept in pre-charge custody for up to fourteen days (with reviews at a magistrates court).

Elsewhere some have speculated the IED was not a sophisticated device.

[davidbfpo]

The author of this article is the former head of UK police CT; his actual title is 'The Importance of Bilateral Collaboration in International Counter-Terrorism Investigations' and is carefully worded.
Link:https://policyexchange.org.uk/the-im...nvestigations/

Two passages:

Judging by the speed of the response in Libya to the Manchester attack last week, the UK has demonstrated that it still has the capability, capacity and global reach to be effective in international counter terrorist investigations.
The UK’s international CT network has played a key role in this and will continue to be a vital part of its ongoing defenses against terrorism. Cooperation with European states is very much part of that – but that will not be affected by Brexit.

Contrary to some authors elsewhere the UK's CT police network and more is not part of the "Five Eyes" arrangement, from what is known in the public domain.

[davidbfpo]

Rather unusually I have not added reports and commentaries on the terrorist attack @ London Bridge, on Saturday evening; in part as I was off the web. Secondly CT policy and practice has become a very public issue in the General Election, with the opposition rightly in my opinion being critical of Prime Minister May for her role as Home Secretary (2010-2016) and as Prime Minister.

Then the "fog of war" has cleared remarkably quickly, not this time aided by "leaks" to the US media, with allegations and partial admissions that "something" was wrong on how one murderer was investigated - if not the other two. Sadly another body has just been found in the River Thames, of a missing French national and others remain missing (a Spaniard & an Australian).

One report on the public's role (albeit three days ago):https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...idge-attackers .

Another which refers to Manchester, eight days old:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/28/mi5-launches-inquiries-into-failings-on-manchester-arena-bomber-salman-abedi-moss-side-raids-amber-rudd?

[davidbfpo]

Footage - 37 seconds - has today emerged of how the London Bridge attackers were shot dead:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...and-terrorists

There are some remarks alongside, such as:

No more than 20 seconds elapse from the officers leaving their ARV to the attackers lying still on the floor.

A couple of days ago now a backgrounder on the UK police's armed response policy and practice:https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-eight-minutes

The BBC News has a "one stop" collection of reports:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40150689 There is an excellent commentary on the radicalisation factor from ICSR:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-40161333

[davidbfpo]

A local newspaper report, based on a Greater Manchester Police press release, clears some of the "smoke" and initial reporting that the attack was a sophisticated operation by many people. For example:

The 22 people arrested in relation to suspected terrorism offences have been released without charge - two of them shortly after arrest.
The remaining 20 were interviewed ‘many times’.....“Some of those arrested and now released have offered accounts which explain innocent contact with Abedi and we are, at this time, satisfied with these explanations. However, this has taken a considerable amount of time to work through to ensure we are satisfied and that the risk to the public has been considered."

Link:http://www.manchestereveningnews.co....ttack-13170282

Or a podcast by NW CTU's head (regional CT unit):https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_yH4Buc45KU

A rather odd story IMHO from Tripoli, Libya by the BBC:

The bomb attack in Manchester last month which killed 22 people was being planned since December, security officials in Libya have told the BBC.Salman Abedi was being watched in Libya more than a month before the attack.Officials in Tripoli have complained about poor security co-operation with the UK, which they say must be improved to prevent further attacks.

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england...ester-40254594


This does rather sound like "spin" after the event.

[davidbfpo]

The UK has a variety of problems with its prison system, amongst them is how it copes with increasing numbers of prisoners who are Muslim or have been converted and the threat from radicalization - which ends in Islamism.

Ian Acheson was asked to conduct a review in 2015; the linked article summarizes his experience and he is very critical:https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/...n-our-prisons/

The actual report is not in the public domain, but there is this official summary:https://www.gov.uk/government/public...-youth-justice

There are a growing number of convicted Islamist terrorists in UK prisons (mainly in England), not all of them are held in 'high security' prisons.

Just how this issue has been effectively ignored, so becoming a real threat inside prison, let alone when prisoners "return to the community" undermines the UK's strategy.

[davidbfpo]

Two weeks ago, on the 5th June 2017, Professor Bruce Hoffman wrote this two page article 'Can Britain Stop Terrorists While Defending Civil Liberties?' and it is worth a read.
Link:http://nationalinterest.org/feature/...berties-21012?

His views are undoubtedly influenced by the Westminster Bridge attack (March 22nd: using a van & knives), the Manchester Arena bombing (May 22nd) and the London Bridge attack (using a van & knives).

Now we have seen the Finsbury Park attack (North London) by a white man in a van who sought to kill Muslims and killed one.

A couple of key points:

ISIS has thus proven remarkably adept at harnessing the full potential of contemporary communications to motivate, inspire and ultimately animate its minions to action.

(As) a Wall Street Journal editorial warned today, “Do more to contain this internal Islamist insurgency now, or risk a political backlash that will result in even more draconian limits on civil liberties.”

Until recently the official figure for aspiring, suspected who posed a threat was three thousand (a remarkably stable figure for years) and now there twenty thousand others who are of "interest".

For those who wish to delve deeper into how many expressed support for terrorism in opinion polling, in 2015, there are two opinion polls. One for a C4 documentary:http://www.channel4.com/info/press/n...s-really-think

The second, with a bigger sample, was by Policy Exchange. Note it found more non-Muslims supported violence than Muslims:https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-con...ties_FINAL.pdf

It is too early to comment on the Finsbury Park attacker, whose identity remains private and a criminal trial restrains the UK media. Was the van driver a "loner".

It is puzzling to me that the "call to arms" from ISIS resonates far more effectively than the repeated calls to action by AQ. A Londoner friend familiar with the North London scene a few years ago argues that the big change is that low-level criminals are drifting into terrorism.



As ISIS appears to be defeated in terms of territory and governance, with very few going to few going there now; are those left behind the frustrated "wannabe" fighters?

What has recently happened has exposed far more than scale and resources. What do we as a nation, let alone the CT agencies and police, do with those who may pose a threat, but there is either no evidence or a lack of intelligence that would justify targeting and investigation?


The standard Home Office approach of tackling encryption etc has no relevance IMHO to what we face today from the angry becoming a threat rapidly.


Resilience is familiar to US LE, but I do ask is policing in London and several other English cities going to become 'security' dominated, whether from guarding or active investigations?