LA Times Staff Writer Sebastian Rotella reports

LONDON — If the past is any guide, the investigation of the attempted car bombings in Britain will lead overseas to an Islamic network affiliated with Al Qaeda.

The question, investigators and experts say, is whether the trail of the would-be bombers will confirm fears that the threat from the war-torn Iraq region is escalating.

But the background of the apparent chief suspect, Iraqi doctor Bilal Abdullah, suggests a more direct connection: networks in the Iraq region that are linked to Al Qaeda and that select and dispatch operatives on a mission to Britain, experts say. Abdullah's medical credentials, British passport and suspected ties to Sunni fundamentalists in Iraq could make him an ideal leader for a plan to hit London with a taste of Baghdad-style carnage, experts say.

"This is exactly what a number of us in the intelligence world had been predicting," said David Omand, who served as Britain's security and intelligence coordinator until April 2005. "The concern was that Al Qaeda in Iraq would turn their minds to attacks outside Iraq. It's not really a strategic surprise. It looks like there's that connection to Iraq."