Quote Originally Posted by Watcher In The Middle View Post
The biggest (and maybe, least obvious loser) in this whole play could be Iran. Russia could easily steal a substantial portion of Iran's current Chinese market (4-5 days to transport vrs. 2+ weeks), and what are the Iranians going to do? They try & bust Russia's chops, Russia tells the US & Western allies to go ahead and nail Iran's hide to the wall and they'll just kick back and watch (and laugh where nobody can see them). Think the Chinese are going to stand up for the Iranians when they can instead get more oil exported from Russia? Doubt it.
If the Russians start selling more to East Asia and less to Europe, the Iranians can just sell to Europe. Given the supply/demand equation in energy markets these days, anyone with oil and gas to sell is going to find a buyer.

Given the oft-demonstrated Russian inclination to use energy supplies for diplomatic leverage, nobody will want to be dependent on them. They are just trying to diversify their markets, just as many consumers (notably China) try to diversify their suppliers. I don't see it as a game-changer.

The real question with Russia, for me, is whether they will be able to muster sufficient investment, domestic and foreign, to sustain and expand production. Their policies to date have not been notably investor-friendly.