QDR and Strategy Changes

[Ken White]

Valid points sir. My point on the ambiguity was more aimed at allies or potential allies than enemies - will our allies believe our promises.

But I'm unsure what promises you mean? NATO and other treaties; yes, I think so.

I think the opponents potentially include Iran, North Korea (though this is more doable for the aircraft we have), some part of China, Venezuala, or any number of wildcards. Not to mention that the design life doesn't really mean much - the F-15Cs were supposed to be gone 10 years ago originally, they'll be flying (and falling apart) for at least 15-20 more years. We have been historically horrible at predicting the next war - hence the F-22 as a hedge.

For the next 20 years or so, none of those can outmatch the number Block 50-52 F16s much less the 100 or so F22 and anything else that can be fielded. Which is obviously why I asked.

MX costs and FMC (OR) rates for the F-22 are about where they should be for a fighter of its age. If you think it's bad now, wait till F-35

I don't think it's bad but people i talk to in the AF do.

Senator Chambliss asked the AF to look at the claims made (purportedly based on AF data), they are refuted here

That would be Senator Chambliss from Georgia? Ah, yes.

Even Obama's pet AF 4-Star, Merrill McPeak, has said it is "real mistake".

Had his 37th TFS flying CAS back in the day. That a retired USAF Fighter Pilot supports buying more fighters is not a surprise.

I agree training is most important, and if I have to choose I'll choose adequate flying hours over buying a new plane. I don't think we should have to choose

I suspect you'll not only not get more of your new birds, you'll also get fewer flying hours. Apparently many involved in this have not lived through major financial downturns and their knock on effect on the DoD budget. Trust me, having lived through several, it hurts in many ways. it's going to get worse before it gets better.

all the training in the world doesn't change physics- if they have SAMs and AAMs that can shoot me at/outside of the ranges I can employ at, all the training in the world won't help. We need new jets, period.

Oh? Based on what I just quoted from you and me being a dumb grunt, I'd say you need new Radar and missiles for your older jets...

I think some of the folks on Hawaii, Midway, Wake and the Philippines would disagree with the loss of air superiority...also stemmed from the fact that our frontline fighters...We eventually got there, but only later in the war.

Which is probably why I specifically exempted WW II and addressed only Korea and Viet Nam.

Our enemies now are at parity or better...

I keep reading that but but as I mentioned, I can count and I have some vague idea of reliability factors, particularly engines, fuel factors and OR rates plus training levels so I'm apparently less concerned about that than some.

Back to what I wanted to talk about on this thread, though, I think our ways/ends/means are out of whack with each other. If we want to truly fulfill our NMS, we need to buy the resources to make that happen, or change the strategy.

Good plan on getting back on thread since I suspect most non-AF persons aren't going to agree on the need for more F-22s -- and what we say here will have no affect on the buy in any event.

Are you talking about the unclassified NMS or the classified version? Either way, good luck with that. I spent 45 years in DoD, military and civilian and I've been watching them closely for an additional 15 and the Department has been over funded more years than not. Good years or bad, the problem is not that DoD is under resourced; the problem is that Congress dictates the spending to a too finite degree AND that DoD misallocates money badly. That is a function of our governmental system and is unlikely to change. the good news is that adequate money trickles down; we get to buy more really good stuff than most anyone else and we have good people using it so it all generally turns out fairly well.

I've lived and worked under several 'strategies.' None of them were ever fully resourced. Not one. It'll work out.

Perils of living in a democracy that is uncomfortable with things militaire. Pain in the tail often but all things considered, I wouldn't change it...