Horn of Africa historical (pre-2011): catch all thread

[SWJED]

Fighting Breaks Out in Somalia During Envoy Visit - NY Times. Heavy fighting broke out near the base of the transitional government of Somalia Wednesday, just as European diplomats were shuttling between rival leaders in yet another effort to avert an all-out war. According to United Nations officials, the Islamist clerics who control Mogadishu, Somalia’s battle-scarred seaside capital, launched an offensive on two fronts against the transitional government’s forces.

E.U. Envoy: Somali Government, Islamists Agree to New Peace Talks - VOA. A European Union envoy says Somalia's interim government and the rival Islamist movement have agreed to a new round of peace talks. The announcement by E.U. official Louis Michel came as the two sides' fighters traded gunfire and mortar shells near the government's home base of Baidoa.

Diplomat Pushes Peace Talks in Somalia - AP. Somali fighters clashed with artillery, rocket-propelled grenades and anti-aircraft guns Wednesday, even as a European diplomat persuaded both the government and a rival Islamic movement to resume peace talks. The heavy fighting outside the only town the government controls dragged on into the evening and underlined the difficulties of securing peace in this desperately poor country in the Horn of Africa.

Heavy Fighting Spreads in Somalia - VOA. In Somalia, heavy fighting has broken out between Islamists and interim government forces in several towns near the government's outpost of Baidoa. The fighting comes in the wake of an Islamist threat to launch a major attack if Ethiopian troops did not leave Somalia by Tuesday. The fighting on Wednesday flared in the towns of Bur Hakaba and Daynunay, where large numbers of Islamist fighters and government forces have been massing in recent weeks.

[Bill Moore]

This reminds me of an article I saw a couple days back by a former CIA member who was knowledgeable on the region. He predicted that the conflict in Somalia would turn into a rapidly escalating regional conflict involving a number of countries in the horn of Africa. Interesting, it seems everything we touch turns into a mess.

[Tom Odom]

This is one we need to contain and watch; we have been on both sides in the Ethiopian-Somali feud. More importantly we have never picked a "winner" because there are no winners.

As for getting into internecine Somali clan wars, you might as well have unprotected sex with an AIDs ridden prostitute. The moment of pleasure will soon be forgotten in the agony of the aftermath. If you are lucky, you might just get shot.

Just say no...

Tom

[tequila]

Quickie interview with a Somalia expert from Foreign Policy:

Most relevant takeaway for me:

FP: Are the Courts controlled by al Qaeda?

KM: No. Absolutely not. There is a legitimate debate over whether a small number of leaders in the Islamic Courts have linkages with a small number of leaders from al Qaeda. That’s not the same as saying that the two are in a deeply intrinsic partnership. The problem that the Courts face is that they are not by any stretch a unified movement. It’s an umbrella group that includes moderates, hard-line salafists, and jihadists. And a small number of jihadists can do an enormous amount of damage and can bring in elements from outside that create a whole new level of security problems.

[jcustis]

Quickie interview with a Somalia expert from Foreign Policy:

Most relevant takeaway for me:

FP: Are the Courts controlled by al Qaeda?

KM: No. Absolutely not. There is a legitimate debate over whether a small number of leaders in the Islamic Courts have linkages with a small number of leaders from al Qaeda. That’s not the same as saying that the two are in a deeply intrinsic partnership. The problem that the Courts face is that they are not by any stretch a unified movement. It’s an umbrella group that includes moderates, hard-line salafists, and jihadists. And a small number of jihadists can do an enormous amount of damage and can bring in elements from outside that create a whole new level of security problems.

I think we have to remember the last sentence of the reply. While the IC may not be aligned with AQ directly, perhaps their Taliban-esque modus operandi will set the stage for jihadist and radical influence.

Who should we support and why? Should we support anyone? Hmmm, I'm torn between Tom and Marc's points. On the one hand, the violence only exacerbates an already precarious situation with regard to food and population displacement, so I feel that there has to be at least some measured response. On the other hand, there seems to be an AQ cloud hanging over the IC that (at least publicly) will prevent us from engaging them directly and influencing a positive outcome.

I haven't paid attention to Kenya enough to know the problems it is having within it's borders, but I can imagine that they are significant. Do we become involved at the risk of drawing ourselves into the Darfur problem as well? While I don't subscribe to an domino theory in the region, masses of people dying in refugee camps is a negative sum game in my opinion. I wonder what JTF-HOA is up to right now?

[marct]

Who should we support and why? Should we support anyone? Hmmm, I'm torn between Tom and Marc's points. On the one hand, the violence only exacerbates an already precarious situation with regard to food and population displacement, so I feel that there has to be at least some measured response. On the other hand, there seems to be an AQ cloud hanging over the IC that (at least publicly) will prevent us from engaging them directly and influencing a positive outcome.

I don't think Tom and I really disagree. Neither one of us wants to see coalition forces try to go into Somalia and play policemen. Well known comments about reproductive parts and meat grinders are appropriate to that idea <wry grin>.

Likewise, the idea of overtly supporting any particular group currently active in that little family fued (quoth he with way too much sarcasm), is porbably equally futile.

I haven't paid attention to Kenya enough to know the problems it is having within it's borders, but I can imagine that they are significant. Do we become involved at the risk of drawing ourselves into the Darfur problem as well? While I don't subscribe to an domino theory in the region, masses of people dying in refugee camps is a negative sum game in my opinion. I wonder what JTF-HOA is up to right now?

Kenya, is on a tipping point the last I heard. The refugee situation isn't as bad as that in Uganda, but it is still pretty bad. What I am advocating is that instead of sending troops into Somalia, we consider sending "reconstruction teams" into Kenya to help with the refugee situation and, at the same time, start strengthening their borders. If nothing else, there would probably be some European support for that in terms of troop commitments since it isn't, technically, a hot environment.

Marc

[jcustis]

Do we have to get serious about Darfur as well though? How much of a hit will we take if we don't?

[marct]

Hi Tom,

This is one we need to contain and watch; we have been on both sides in the Ethiopian-Somali feud. More importantly we have never picked a "winner" because there are no winners.

As for getting into internecine Somali clan wars, you might as well have unprotected sex with an AIDs ridden prostitute. The moment of pleasure will soon be forgotten in the agony of the aftermath. If you are lucky, you might just get shot.

Just say no...

Tom

Years ago, a friend of mine did his MA on Somalia before it all broke apart. There's actually a large population component that is not part of the clans (and is hated by the clans), so we have to be careful about how we conceive the situation.

I totally agree with you on the "contain and watch" comment BTW. I would suggest that somebody think seriously about country "strengthening" missions into Kenya, especially in the northern and north-eastern borders.

Marc

[Jedburgh]

...I would suggest that somebody think seriously about country "strengthening" missions into Kenya, especially in the northern and north-eastern borders.

I don't believe this is the type of "strengthening" of the border region that you were implying, but they are attempting to address part of the situation:

ReliefWeb, 21 Dec 06: Commission provides €2 million in humanitarian aid for Somali refugees in Kenya

...Since the beginning of 2006, Kenya has seen a steadily increasing refugee influx from Somalia. Each day around 1,200 Somali refugees arrive currently in Kenya. The office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has so far registered 32,000 new arrivals this year on top of the 126,000 Somalis already living in refugee camps in Kenya. The aim of the Commission's assistance is to support activities covering the basic needs of the new Somali refugees (shelter, food, basic health services, sanitation).

Louis Michel, Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid, said: "Somalia's fast-changing political situation and complex internal conflicts are once again in the international spotlight. The Somali people suffering from the consequences deserve the same attention. The effects of several years of drought have increased the humanitarian needs. The European Commission has been a very active donor right from the start. The additional €2 million confirm our continued humanitarian commitment alongside our political engagement to contribute to peace and stabilisation in Somalia." He added: "I also thank Kenya for hosting the Somali refugees at a time when the own population in particular in the north of the country faces economic hardship because of the severe drought in the region....

[marct]

I don't believe this is the type of "strengthening" of the border region that you were implying, but they are attempting to address part of the situation:

Hi Jedburgh,

Actually, that's part of it. Kenya has been getting progressively destablized by trying to deal with too many refugees and having porous borders. Some of the camps in Kenya and Uganda make the Black Hole of Calcutta look like DisneyLand, so, if we are going to think seriously about a GCOIN, then part of that has to be in terms of turning these sink holes into something that at least offers some hope and can be used as a staging ground for them to recapture the areas they have been thrown out of.

I think this is especially important in that particular region, since the main groups that we could be allying with, the Samale, the southern Sudanese, the people of Darfur, are getting the snot kicked out of them. How well will anyone believe promises of Western governments if we don't help them?

Yes, reconstruction is a part of all this, but, as the old adage goes "Give a man a fish and he eats for a day, teach him to fish and he eats for a lifetime." I don't really think that making the refugee camps into lovely places is the answer (I've got more than a few problems with the UN). I do, however, think that the refugee camps need to be shifted from the loss column into the win column. Let's take a page from the old insurgentcy manuals...

Marc

[Tom Odom]

Years ago, a friend of mine did his MA on Somalia before it all broke apart. There's actually a large population component that is not part of the clans (and is hated by the clans), so we have to be careful about how we conceive the situation.

Marc

I was aware of that; what I do not have a good fix on is what happened to that "group" after the collapse. Were they a Somali equivalent of the "Wa-Benzi" in other post-colonial African states? Did they survive, leave, or were they washed under the surge of clan warfare?

I am quite happy to say my own time on the ground in Somalia was limited to 2 weeks in 1984. That said, I still left with a dented skull. My associations with other African groups over the years certainly affected my views toward the region. Geography tends to confirm those views: there are no major routes into Somalia other than across country. No one wants to go there and the Somalis like it that way. I realize that is a less than PC viewpoint but it is a very real regional view.

Efforts to buffer and contain are underway; my cautions are that direct or semi-indirect involvement in these conflicts works against containment (or whatever we call it).

Best

Tom

[marct]

Hi Tom,

I was aware of that; what I do not have a good fix on is what happened to that "group" after the collapse. Were they a Somali equivalent of the "Wa-Benzi" in other post-colonial African states? Did they survive, leave, or were they washed under the surge of clan warfare?

I really don't know what happened to a lot of them, although I believe there is a fairly large group in Kenya. Probably the poeple who would know best are the Mennonite Central Relief Commitee - they are quite active in Kenya and keep an eye on refugee movements.

I am quite happy to say my own time on the ground in Somalia was limited to 2 weeks in 1984. That said, I still left with a dented skull. My associations with other African groups over the years certainly affected my views toward the region. Geography tends to confirm those views: there are no major routes into Somalia other than across country. No one wants to go there and the Somalis like it that way. I realize that is a less than PC viewpoint but it is a very real regional view.

Too true!

Efforts to buffer and contain are underway; my cautions are that direct or semi-indirect involvement in these conflicts works against containment (or whatever we call it).

I can certainly understand those cautions <wry grin>. Getting directly involved in Somalia is a good way to get the snot kicked out of you; at least at the PR level. What I really wisj that we were doing is sending some troops to contain the borders, while trying to upgrade the resource of the refugees so that they can go back in as allies.

Marc