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  1. #1
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    The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 31 Oct 06:

    Somalia Hostilities Threaten Outbreak of Regional War
    After years of mutual hostility, the armed forces of two states and the armed militias of one failed state are poised to unleash a potentially devastating war in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia are each moving troops up to their borders in preparation. All parties have agreed to a third round of Arab League-brokered peace talks in Khartoum this week. The negotiations may represent the last opportunity to avoid the outbreak of a general war in the turbulent and highly strategic Horn region. The importance of these talks is reflected in the decision to invite the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to join mediation efforts (Shabelle Media Network, October 22). IGAD is an important regional assembly of seven East African countries that negotiated the formation of Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in 2004. The TFG is now isolated in the Somali town of Baidoa, where its existence relies on the support of Ethiopian troops and various Somali militias. Soldiers of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), Somalia's coalition of militant Islamists, are now poised for an attack on the makeshift capital where TFG leaders are engaged in bitter disputes with each other. Fighting has already broken out between the Islamists and combined TFG/Ethiopian forces for control of the approaches to Baidoa...

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    ICG Somalia Conflict Risk Alert, 27 Nov 06:
    The draft resolution the U.S. intends to present to the UN Security Council on 29 November could trigger all-out war in Somalia and destabilise the entire Horn of Africa region by escalating the proxy conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea to dangerous new levels...

    ...The proposed resolution, which has the backing of African members of the Security Council, would authorise deployment of a regional military force (IGASOM) in support of the TFG and exempt that entity and troop contributing countries – Ethiopia, Uganda and possibly Kenya, amongst others – from the existing UN arms embargo. While its objectives are to strengthen the TFG, deter the CSIC from further expansion and avert the threat of full-scale war, it is likely to backfire on all three counts...

    ...As so often in Somalia, the consequence of an ill-considered intervention is likely to be more conflict, not less. Military measures must remain a weapon of last resort.

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    The Economist, 30 Nov 06: The Rumbling Rumours of War
    Fighters loyal to Somalia's Islamic courts last week took positions along the border with Ethiopia; this week they pushed further north than ever before, consolidating their grip on Bandiradley (see map). Tinny loudspeakers in Somali towns under Islamist control blared out holy war against Ethiopia. Those on the front line professed themselves ready to die fighting the “forces of the devil”—Ethiopia, that is. Businessmen in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital, were told to hand over their weapons for the cause; many did. Intelligence sources say the Islamists are still getting more arms from their allies, especially Eritrea, which may now have 2,000 of its own soldiers inside Somalia.

    Meanwhile, 6,000-plus Ethiopian troops continue to mass on their own side of the border, with some commando, infantry and air force units already inside Somalia. A convoy of around 130 Ethiopian military lorries got past Islamist positions last week to reach the central Somali town of Baidoa, seat of Somalia's internationally recognised but powerless transitional government. Locals said the many Ethiopian troops in the town were busy digging trenches. Skirmishes, mostly won by Islamists, are taking place across the country every day. Ethiopia would probably overrun the Islamist positions in a conventional war. The question is whether Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, will order his army to attack....

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    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Looks like major fighting has broken out between Ethiopian regulars and the Islamic Courts Union:

    Islamic commander Sheikh Mohamed Ibrahim Bilal told AFP news agency: "I can confirm to you that heavy fighting has already started around several front line areas."

    Government commander Ibrahim Batari accused the Islamists of mounting the attack. "There is shelling everywhere... our forces are facing Islamists, hell is going on," he said.


    Islamic militias have attacked us and the fighting is continuing

    Salad Ali Jelle
    Deputy defence minister


    Q&A: Islamist advance
    Peacekeeping conundrum

    "I can hear sounds of bullets, rockets from the side where the defence lines of the Islamic courts and the government are," a resident in the government's military base in Daynunay, southeast of Baidoa, told Reuters news agency.

    Islamist spokesman Abdirahin Ali Mudey says the base is now in UIC hands, which residents talking to the BBC confirm.

    ...

    But the BBC's Adam Mynott says that as he drove to the airport in Baidoa, he was stopped by a huge convoy of Ethiopian military armour.

    There were about 10 large artillery cannons, several vehicles - clearly marked with Ethiopian insignia - loaded with ammunition and many hundreds of soldiers.


    He was detained for about an hour by Ethiopian soldiers who appeared on edge and very nervous.

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    Small Wars Journal SWJED's Avatar
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    Default A Lot of Moving Pieces Right Now in the HOA...

    Fighting Breaks Out in Somalia During Envoy Visit - NY Times. Heavy fighting broke out near the base of the transitional government of Somalia Wednesday, just as European diplomats were shuttling between rival leaders in yet another effort to avert an all-out war. According to United Nations officials, the Islamist clerics who control Mogadishu, Somalia’s battle-scarred seaside capital, launched an offensive on two fronts against the transitional government’s forces.

    E.U. Envoy: Somali Government, Islamists Agree to New Peace Talks - VOA. A European Union envoy says Somalia's interim government and the rival Islamist movement have agreed to a new round of peace talks. The announcement by E.U. official Louis Michel came as the two sides' fighters traded gunfire and mortar shells near the government's home base of Baidoa.

    Diplomat Pushes Peace Talks in Somalia - AP. Somali fighters clashed with artillery, rocket-propelled grenades and anti-aircraft guns Wednesday, even as a European diplomat persuaded both the government and a rival Islamic movement to resume peace talks. The heavy fighting outside the only town the government controls dragged on into the evening and underlined the difficulties of securing peace in this desperately poor country in the Horn of Africa.

    Heavy Fighting Spreads in Somalia - VOA. In Somalia, heavy fighting has broken out between Islamists and interim government forces in several towns near the government's outpost of Baidoa. The fighting comes in the wake of an Islamist threat to launch a major attack if Ethiopian troops did not leave Somalia by Tuesday. The fighting on Wednesday flared in the towns of Bur Hakaba and Daynunay, where large numbers of Islamist fighters and government forces have been massing in recent weeks.

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    Default Next Small War

    This reminds me of an article I saw a couple days back by a former CIA member who was knowledgeable on the region. He predicted that the conflict in Somalia would turn into a rapidly escalating regional conflict involving a number of countries in the horn of Africa. Interesting, it seems everything we touch turns into a mess.

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    Council Member Tom Odom's Avatar
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    Default Quagmire in Desert Mountains

    This is one we need to contain and watch; we have been on both sides in the Ethiopian-Somali feud. More importantly we have never picked a "winner" because there are no winners.

    As for getting into internecine Somali clan wars, you might as well have unprotected sex with an AIDs ridden prostitute. The moment of pleasure will soon be forgotten in the agony of the aftermath. If you are lucky, you might just get shot.

    Just say no...

    Tom

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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    http://allafrica.com/stories/200612270574.html

    Note - this link will go stale in two weeks. I think someone's helping the Ethiopian Chief of Staff with his homework.

    Ethiopia: Ethiopian, TFG Forces Routing Int'l Terrorist Forces in And Around Baidoa - Premier
    The Ethiopian Herald (Addis Ababa)
    December 27, 2006

    Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said that Ethiopian forces and the forces of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia have broken the back of international terrorist forces in and around Baidoa, and the latter are now in full retreat.

    "Our commanders have got the list of international terrorists, people outside of Somalia who were wounded and being treated at a hospital in the town of Diinsoor when the town was occupied," Meles said.

    "Not only did we get the names of those Eritreans, but the list of names of people who carry British passports. So, when we talk about international terrorists, we mean international. Not just Middle East," he added. Meles said that something like 290 non-Somalis, who were wounded, were being treated at a hospital in Diinsoor. "The whole of Middle Somalia is now free from these terrorist groups, and Baidoa is not under threat any more," Meles said.
    (Now would be a good time to trot them out in front of the press, but the Ethiopians have been paranoid about reporters in the past).

    Meles said, so far Ethiopian troops have not entered any town, and it is only the TFG forces that have gone into towns. "Liberating towns is not Ethiopia's agenda. Our army has avoided even the small towns that have been liberated so far." He added: "There are no specific towns that we target to liberate. We have no specific agenda of targeting Mogadishu or any other specific town. We are not after towns, we are after the terrorist groups." (Bypassing MOUT tarbabies.)

    "Only senior commanders of our army have entered into these liberated towns, and they did so solely for the purpose of talking to traditional leaders in these towns," Meles said.
    <snip>

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    Council Member jcustis's Avatar
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    Default Lebanon, anyone?

    As the united anti-IC forces drive on Mogadishu, where are the Islamic Court cats headed? Will they fade away like the Taliban, waiting to rear up down the road?

    It almost seems as though Ethiopia will have to invest itself in Somali affairs akin to Syria, IOT gain any semblance of order. I haven't had the time to read through the background references posted in the earlier parts of this thread (to better understand what the IC factions are all about), but we have got to make something stick in the Horn or we will deal with these guys again.

    I mean, the IC didn't come to prominence because a few thugs got together and said, "Let's start running a country." If they were filling a vacuum, then we have got to work engagement hard and be the power that fills the void and helps that nation drive forward with better options for governance. It all goes back to attacking the root causes, and although folks can wave the flag and say the Ethiopians did a good job at helping to roll the IC back, my question is "So what?" Where does that leave us now and what is the way ahead?

    It looks like just another finger stuck in the dike, without any true analysis of why the dike's foundation is rotting away, or a plan to fix it permanently.

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    Council Member AdamG's Avatar
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    Well, the Islamists have abandoned Mogadishu, ditched their 'uniforms' and faded into the population. The militias loyal to the Transitional government have taken over the docks. Looks like the locals just don't want their huts burned down, no matter who's in charge.

    Elders and foresighted people in the capital called on the transitional government to do something about the escalating insecurity in Mogadishu. Somali premier Ali Mohammed Gedi told elders and scholars in Mogadishu that they should fortify the security in the capital until the government forces reach Mogadishu.

    The State Department was trying to convince the Ugandans to get into the fight (probably to deal with Kismayu), but Kampala wasn't willing to play.

    Islamists lost all their strongholds in central and southern Somalia, including the capital Mogadishu, with the exception of the port city of Kismayu, 500 km south of Mogadishu.

    http://allafrica.com/stories/printab...612280149.html

    An AU stability force to help the Transitionals maintain order in Mogadishu would be nice, but that won't happen with Darfur still on the front pages.

  11. #11
    Council Member jcustis's Avatar
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    An AU stability force to help the Transitionals maintain order in Mogadishu would be nice, but that won't happen with Darfur still on the front pages.
    Sadly, that's been tried before, but only made small gains in very discreet areas (like temporary food security). Order is a very relative term in that country.

    Which think tank is on point with analysis of the situation right now? I need to read up on some of the stuff.

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