Horn of Africa historical (pre-2011): catch all thread

[Jedburgh]

...and again from ISN: A High-Stakes Game in Somalia

...With allegations and denials abounding that Ethiopian army regulars crossed into Somalia on 17 June, the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) -Islamic Court Union (ICU) talks scheduled for Yemen this week will take on added bite.

And with a UN official suggesting that arms are flowing into Somalia in contravention of an embargo, security in Somalia and in the Horn of Africa region could be set to deteriorate in the coming days and weeks...

[Jedburgh]

...keeping the Somalia thread alive:

Joint Hearing: Somalia: Expanding Crisis in the Horn of Africa

J. Peter Pham of the Nelson Institute: Background, Challenges, and Opportunities
of an Islamist Takeover

Ted Dagne, CRS: The Current Crisis in Somalia and Threat of Terrorism

John Prendergast from ICG: More than Counter-Terrorism: Rethinking U.S. Policy toward Somalia

[Jedburgh]

From ICG, 10 Aug 06: Can the Somali Crisis Be Contained?

...The Islamic Courts’ success, and the rise to prominence of hard-line jihadi Islamists within them, has alarmed neighbours and sent shock waves through the broader international community. Ethiopia, which suffered terrorist attacks by al-Itihaad al-Islaami (AIAI) in the mid-1990s, considers the Courts a direct threat. Kenya is alarmed by links between key figures within the Courts and individuals of concern within its own borders. The U.S. believes jihadi Islamists within the Courts shield al-Qaeda operatives responsible for bombing two of its embassies in 1998. All share determination not to allow Somalia to evolve into an African version of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the Transitional Federal Government is increasingly perceived within Somalia as a faction rather than a national authority and is so wracked by internal dissent and the accelerating defections of cabinet ministers that it threatens to fall apart.

The TFG and Ethiopia paint the Islamic Courts – far too simplistically – as a terrorist umbrella, backed by thousands of foreign jihadi fighters, and Ethiopia has threatened to “crush” them if they move against the TFG. The Courts have responded to Ethiopian deployments in Somalia by calling for a defensive jihad and breaking off peace talks under Arab League auspices. Skirmishes between TFG and Islamic Court forces south of Mogadishu in late July were widely perceived as the first exchanges of a coming conflict. Unless the crisis is contained, it threatens to draw in a widening array of state actors, foreign jihadi Islamists and al-Qaeda. Moreover, Eritrean assistance to the Courts has made Somalia an increasingly likely proxy battlefield between long-feuding Eritrea and Ethiopia...

[Jedburgh]

The Jamestown Foundation's Terrorism Monitor, 31 Oct 06:

Somalia Hostilities Threaten Outbreak of Regional War

After years of mutual hostility, the armed forces of two states and the armed militias of one failed state are poised to unleash a potentially devastating war in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia are each moving troops up to their borders in preparation. All parties have agreed to a third round of Arab League-brokered peace talks in Khartoum this week. The negotiations may represent the last opportunity to avoid the outbreak of a general war in the turbulent and highly strategic Horn region. The importance of these talks is reflected in the decision to invite the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to join mediation efforts (Shabelle Media Network, October 22). IGAD is an important regional assembly of seven East African countries that negotiated the formation of Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in 2004. The TFG is now isolated in the Somali town of Baidoa, where its existence relies on the support of Ethiopian troops and various Somali militias. Soldiers of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), Somalia's coalition of militant Islamists, are now poised for an attack on the makeshift capital where TFG leaders are engaged in bitter disputes with each other. Fighting has already broken out between the Islamists and combined TFG/Ethiopian forces for control of the approaches to Baidoa...

[Jedburgh]

ICG Somalia Conflict Risk Alert, 27 Nov 06:

The draft resolution the U.S. intends to present to the UN Security Council on 29 November could trigger all-out war in Somalia and destabilise the entire Horn of Africa region by escalating the proxy conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea to dangerous new levels...

...The proposed resolution, which has the backing of African members of the Security Council, would authorise deployment of a regional military force (IGASOM) in support of the TFG and exempt that entity and troop contributing countries – Ethiopia, Uganda and possibly Kenya, amongst others – from the existing UN arms embargo. While its objectives are to strengthen the TFG, deter the CSIC from further expansion and avert the threat of full-scale war, it is likely to backfire on all three counts...

...As so often in Somalia, the consequence of an ill-considered intervention is likely to be more conflict, not less. Military measures must remain a weapon of last resort.

[Jedburgh]

The Economist, 30 Nov 06: The Rumbling Rumours of War

Fighters loyal to Somalia's Islamic courts last week took positions along the border with Ethiopia; this week they pushed further north than ever before, consolidating their grip on Bandiradley (see map). Tinny loudspeakers in Somali towns under Islamist control blared out holy war against Ethiopia. Those on the front line professed themselves ready to die fighting the “forces of the devil”—Ethiopia, that is. Businessmen in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital, were told to hand over their weapons for the cause; many did. Intelligence sources say the Islamists are still getting more arms from their allies, especially Eritrea, which may now have 2,000 of its own soldiers inside Somalia.

Meanwhile, 6,000-plus Ethiopian troops continue to mass on their own side of the border, with some commando, infantry and air force units already inside Somalia. A convoy of around 130 Ethiopian military lorries got past Islamist positions last week to reach the central Somali town of Baidoa, seat of Somalia's internationally recognised but powerless transitional government. Locals said the many Ethiopian troops in the town were busy digging trenches. Skirmishes, mostly won by Islamists, are taking place across the country every day. Ethiopia would probably overrun the Islamist positions in a conventional war. The question is whether Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, will order his army to attack....

[tequila]

Looks like major fighting has broken out between Ethiopian regulars and the Islamic Courts Union:

Islamic commander Sheikh Mohamed Ibrahim Bilal told AFP news agency: "I can confirm to you that heavy fighting has already started around several front line areas."

Government commander Ibrahim Batari accused the Islamists of mounting the attack. "There is shelling everywhere... our forces are facing Islamists, hell is going on," he said.


Islamic militias have attacked us and the fighting is continuing

Salad Ali Jelle
Deputy defence minister


Q&A: Islamist advance
Peacekeeping conundrum

"I can hear sounds of bullets, rockets from the side where the defence lines of the Islamic courts and the government are," a resident in the government's military base in Daynunay, southeast of Baidoa, told Reuters news agency.

Islamist spokesman Abdirahin Ali Mudey says the base is now in UIC hands, which residents talking to the BBC confirm.

...

But the BBC's Adam Mynott says that as he drove to the airport in Baidoa, he was stopped by a huge convoy of Ethiopian military armour.

There were about 10 large artillery cannons, several vehicles - clearly marked with Ethiopian insignia - loaded with ammunition and many hundreds of soldiers.


He was detained for about an hour by Ethiopian soldiers who appeared on edge and very nervous.

[AdamG]

http://allafrica.com/stories/200612270574.html

Note - this link will go stale in two weeks. I think someone's helping the Ethiopian Chief of Staff with his homework.

Ethiopia: Ethiopian, TFG Forces Routing Int'l Terrorist Forces in And Around Baidoa - Premier
The Ethiopian Herald (Addis Ababa)
December 27, 2006

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said that Ethiopian forces and the forces of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia have broken the back of international terrorist forces in and around Baidoa, and the latter are now in full retreat.

"Our commanders have got the list of international terrorists, people outside of Somalia who were wounded and being treated at a hospital in the town of Diinsoor when the town was occupied," Meles said.

"Not only did we get the names of those Eritreans, but the list of names of people who carry British passports. So, when we talk about international terrorists, we mean international. Not just Middle East," he added. Meles said that something like 290 non-Somalis, who were wounded, were being treated at a hospital in Diinsoor. "The whole of Middle Somalia is now free from these terrorist groups, and Baidoa is not under threat any more," Meles said. (Now would be a good time to trot them out in front of the press, but the Ethiopians have been paranoid about reporters in the past).

Meles said, so far Ethiopian troops have not entered any town, and it is only the TFG forces that have gone into towns. "Liberating towns is not Ethiopia's agenda. Our army has avoided even the small towns that have been liberated so far." He added: "There are no specific towns that we target to liberate. We have no specific agenda of targeting Mogadishu or any other specific town. We are not after towns, we are after the terrorist groups." (Bypassing MOUT tarbabies.)

"Only senior commanders of our army have entered into these liberated towns, and they did so solely for the purpose of talking to traditional leaders in these towns," Meles said.
<snip>