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Thread: Horn of Africa historical (pre-2011): catch all thread

  1. #61
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    ISN, 8 Mar 07: War on Terror Thwarts Somali Peace
    ...Section 5 of the last UN Security Council 1744 did not explicitly demand a full Ethiopian withdrawal but "urges member States of the African Union to contribute to the above [AU] mission in order to create the conditions for the withdrawal of all other foreign forces from Somalia."

    Many in Somalia feel the need for peacekeepers but the involvement of a country seen as an enemy taints the peace mission and jeopardizes a unique opportunity to end 15 years of violent chaos in Somalia....

    ...The international community seems either unable or unwilling to discern the effect of the Ethiopian presence on the AU peace mission in Somalia. And the US, with its war on terror agenda in the Horn of Africa, has found a convenient partner in Ethiopia - regardless of the negative consequences for Somalia.

    Unless both the US and the UN not only refrain from condoning the Ethiopian presence in Somalia but are seen to be actively doing so, the UN-sponsored AU peacekeeping mission will have little chance of bringing stability to Somalia.

  2. #62
    Council Member TROUFION's Avatar
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    Default just a note

    NPR, Discovery Channel and Ted Koppel have put together a series of prgrams discussing this 'proxy war' idea it begins tomorrow. I caught the add to quickly to get specifics and don't have the time right now to look it up, my apology, but I bet the discussions will be interesting, I believe the first segment will air via Morning Edition on NPR on Mar 9th but local programing is all different.

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    "Ali Saeed, chairman of the Mogadishu-based Center for Peace and Democracy (CPD) think tank" - I was sort of dumbfounded when I read that. I bet Mr. Saeed has relatives who know hunger and there isn't a thing he can do about it. Rabies, that's what comes to mind when I think of Somalia. I think Somalia is so ruptured and impoverished, almost pre-stone age, that it isn't even a vaible pawn for AQ, let alone any Western interests.

  4. #64
    Council Member Tom Odom's Avatar
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    Default Agenda Agenda Agenda

    Quote Originally Posted by Jedburgh View Post
    From the same article:
    Ethiopia has ignored a UN Security Council resolution banning it (albeit rather vaguely) - along with Djibouti and Kenya - from sending troops into Somalia, saying its national security was threatened by the Islamists who had taken over much of the country last year.

    Somalia's neighbors have a vested interested in the war-torn nation. Ethiopia and Somalia have fought two wars over territorial and ethnic disputes which have not been officially resolved.

    The historic rift is even symbolized by the white five-pointed star of the Somali flag. According to Somali tradition, one of the star's points represents the disputed Ogaden region in western Ethiopia.

    The Ethiopian government had earlier said it would withdraw its troops from Somalia in compliance with the Security Council resolution and "in respect of the sensitivity between the two nations." However, Ethiopia was emboldened to stay on when US and UN officials clearly backed its involvement, stating that Ethiopian troops could help root out Islamists, accused by the US of harboring members of al-Qaida. That charge has never been officially substantiated.
    This is exactly why I always stress agenda agenda agenda in one-on-one or state-on-state relations. We--the US and especially those in the US with distinctly neocon tendencies--have been saluting the valour and martial effectiveness of the Ethiopians in driving out Islamic radicals. Some of that is true; what is critical is understanding the Ethiopian agenda in those actions.
    I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the AU force is in for a rude awakening.
    Not at all JC--you are dead on target with that prediction.

    Tom

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    Default Al-Qa’ida's (mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa

    CTC, 1 May 07: Al-Qa’ida's (mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa
    The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point is pleased to present the report, Al-Qa’ida's (mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa. Based on a collection of al-Qa’ida documents recently released from the Department of Defense’s Harmony Database, this report provides an analysis of al-Qa’ida’s early operations in the Horn of Africa. These documents, captured in the course of operations supporting the Global War on Terror, have never before been available to the academic and policy community. Al-Qa’ida's (mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa includes a theoretically informed analysis of al-Qa’ida’s successes and failures while operating in Somalia between 1992 and 1994. Case studies on Somalia and Kenya provide a historical and current analysis of al-Qa’ida’s operations in the Horn. Our theoretical analysis and case studies inform policy recommendations on how the U.S. and its coalition partners might address the threat of terrorism in failed and weak states within the Horn of Africa and globally. We have provided brief summaries of each of the released documents with full text translations in English and the original document in Arabic. We hope this report will serve as a useful resource in our collective efforts to better understand and combat al-Qa’ida and its affiliated movements.
    Last edited by Jedburgh; 01-22-2008 at 04:51 PM. Reason: Fixed Links

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    Default Horn Hotbed

    May 2007 edition of Armed Forces Journal - Horn Hotbed by Peter Brookes.

    Since the early 1990s, the Horn of Africa — the descriptive name for the East African countries of Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Eritrea and Sudan — has been considered by many a major source of Islamic terrorism, radicalism and political instability. Unfortunately, that conclusion is accurate...

  7. #67
    Small Wars Journal SWJED's Avatar
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    Default Uploaded to SWJ

    I just uploaded the document to the SWJ - Al-Qa'ida's (mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa (1 May 2007)

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    Council Member jcustis's Avatar
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    I've followed the development of "affairs" in the Horn (and specificaly Somalia) since I left in 1994. This is an important piece of work on a scale that I honestly have a hard time describing. This leads me to wonder, why the transparency, and why now?

    What are the differences between the 229 page and 557 page versions? I am glossing over both right now, and honestly there is too much stuff to be able to tell.
    Last edited by jcustis; 05-07-2007 at 01:35 AM.

  9. #69
    Council Member Tom Odom's Avatar
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    Our most important new finding is that al-Qa’ida failed to gain traction in Somalia in the early 1990s because: (1) its members were perceived as foreigners; (2) it significantly underestimated the costs of operating in a failed state environment; and (3) its African vanguard did not understand the salience of either local power structures or local Islamic traditions. In a region dominated by clanbased authority structures and moderate Sufi Islam, the benefits of joining a foreign Salafi terrorist organization paled next to the costs of leaving one’s clan.
    I started reading this paper this morning and actually started laughing....it seems that AQ ran into the reality of Somalia where the non-Somali is essentially a target. I also especially like the cautions against over-playing a US or Western hand in such areas.

    After reviewing al-Qa`ida’s Horn operations from a theoretical standpoint, we analyze al-Qa`ida’s prospects in two key Horn countries: Somalia and Kenya. The nations composing the Horn of Africa are often aggregated into one overall counterterrorism strategy. However, each Horn country and even sub-regions within these countries present a unique set of socioeconomic, political and religious factors that create specific challenges and opportunities to both al-Qa’ida and to counterterrorism forces. Effective and efficient counterterrorism efforts in the Horn require tailored strategies that exacerbate the endemic challenges that al-Qa’ida encounters in this inhospitable region and minimize friendly government vulnerabilities.
    Or as above, it is refreshing that someone actually pointed out that a geographic feature like the "Horn" does not define the social or cultural divisions within that feature. Basically this is a modern caution against a colonial tendency, saying "be careful drawing borders or boundaries, White Man."


    More later after I finish looking at this one.

    Best
    Tom
    Last edited by Tom Odom; 05-07-2007 at 01:41 PM.

  10. #70
    Council Member Tom Odom's Avatar
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    Thumbs up Good Paper

    Alright, I did an admittedly fast and equally surface read of this paper but having said that, I will still say it is very informative, especially to those not initiated to the Horn, Somalia, and Kenya.

    The bad news is that it is a long read at 557 pages if you are so inclined. The good news is reading the executive summary will give you what you need with some greater depth spot reading in the first 81 pages.

    The paper's key point is that failed states like Somalia may not be the key battleground against terrorism. Instead weak states like Kenya--especially coastal kenya--offer greater opportunities for organizations like AQ.

    The paper also offers key points that apply to foreign assistance in larger terms, such as the presence of terrorist activity as a stimulus for assistance promotes the preservation of such activity to continue the flow of assistance. This is not surprising to anyone who has worked refugee or other assistance venues, especially when dealing with a weak/corrupt government. We used to say, "refugees are big business." This report says "so are terrorists" when it comes to prompting assistance.

    My concern with this paper is that in itself it presents an equally simplistic view on the issues of failed states and weak states, especially in Africa. I say that with the Congo--never a real state to begin with--in mind. Everything that is played out in this paper as indicative of either a failed state like Somalia or a weak state like Kenya takes place in the Congo everyday. The key is understanding the region, the "country," and the peoples involved before making "big hand, little map" assessments like "Somalia is a breeding ground for Islamists" or "they will see us as liberators in Iraq."

    Overall a very good paper and I recommend at least reading the EXSUM.

    Tom

  11. #71
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    Default The Americans Have Landed

    "The Americans Have Landed" by Thomas Barnett http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/Af...ed_Africa.html

    America is going to have an Africa Command for the same reason people buy real estate -- it's a good investment. Too many large, hostile powers surround Central Asia for the radical jihadists to expand there, but Africa? Africa's the strategic backwater of the world. Nobody cares about Africa except Western celebrities.

    So as the Middle East middle-ages over the next three decades and Asia's infrastructural build-out is completed, only Africa will remain as a source for both youth-driven revolution and cheap labor and commodities. Toss in global warming and you've got a recipe for the most deprived becoming the most depraved.

    The U.S., through its invasion and botched occupation of Iraq, has dramatically sped up globalization's frightening reformatting process in the Middle East, and with Africa on deck, the United States military is engaging in a highly strategic flanking maneuver.
    non-kinetic effects in action...
    -john bellflower

    Rule of Law in Afghanistan

    "You must, therefore know that there are two means of fighting: one according to the laws, the other with force; the first way is proper to man, the second to beasts; but because the first, in many cases, is not sufficient, it becomes necessary to have recourse to the second." -- Niccolo Machiavelli (from The Prince)

  12. #72
    Council Member Beelzebubalicious's Avatar
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    Yes, it's easy to be impressed with Afewerki. I was for awhile and so were so many Eritreans, but time has shown something different. This was written in 2003, when optimism was high and Afewerki did walk around w/out bodyguards.

    Anyway, I've been thinking this little border skirmish is going to blow up again at any moment. Each time it doesn't. It feels like it's just a matter of time, though. Perhaps it's Ethiopia's other problems or it's Sudan that keeps this just below boiling.

    Though Afewerki is not as well supported as he was in the past and life is getting worse in Eritrea, he doesn't seem like he's going anywhere soon. On the other hand, I'm not sure how Meles hangs on. Perhaps it's the age-old conflict distraction.

    What's new out there? Anybody know anyone in the soup?

  13. #73
    Council Member Beelzebubalicious's Avatar
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    I also wanted to add this article that provides some more background on the border dispute and current issues. Terence Lyons wrote a piece for the Council on Foreign Relations titled, "Avoiding Conflict in the Horn of Africa: US Policy Towards Ethiopia and Eritrea"

    http://www.cfr.org/content/publicati...itreaCSR21.pdf

  14. #74
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    Default Eritrea deployed 25,000 troops to Ethiopian border?

    the Sudan Tribune is the only news source to report this. Anyone have any information to support or deny this info?

    Eritrea deploying 25000 troops into Ethiopia border - opposition
    Tuesday 23 October 2007.

    October 22, 2007 (MEKELLE, Ethiopia) — The opposition Eritrean People Democratic Front (EPDF) today said, Eritrea recently has deployed over 25000 troops toward Ethiopia border.

    “Eritrean 19 and 13 military division forces fully armed are deployed at the temporary security zone where UN peace keepers are deployed.” The opposition group said.

    According to the EPDF’s statement Eritrea has break into the buffer zone, Temporary Security Zone, (TSZ) between the Eritrea and Ethiopia forces; and heavily started massing its troop

    Ethiopia and Eritrea forces are now in less than 25 kms away from each other and recent tensions could break out in to a full war any time.

    The group further said the government of Eritrea has imposed curfew in Senafe town and around.

    ’’The curfew imposed since last week and which the group said lasts from dusk to down aimed to control its fleeing citizens to Ethiopia in the cover of darkness.” The group added.

    International observers say Eritrea violated the Alger agreement by sending troops to the demilitarized zone. Also the UN urged Eritrea to remove the restrictions placed by Eritrea upon UN mission forces between the two countries.

    At the end of October 2005, Eritrea ordered the U.N. mission in Eritrea to "confine its land vehicle movements to the main roads" in the 25-kilometer wide demilitarized buffer zone.

    The move was seen as a pressure from Eritrea intending to force the international community into taking action against Ethiopia, which has refused to accept an international ruling on the border made in 2002.

    In 2000, Ethiopia and Eritrea ended a 2 1/2-year border war that killed 70,000 people and cost two of the poorest countries in the world an estimated $1 million a day each.

    http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article24373

  15. #75
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Ethiopia says may call off Eritrea border pact - Reuters 25 Sep. Possibly related if the above opposition group is telling the truth?

    Ethiopia said on Tuesday it may terminate the pact ending its border war with Eritrea, accusing its smaller neighbour of breaching the deal on several fronts including coordinating "terrorist activity".

    Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin in a letter to his Eritrean counterpart said Addis Ababa would be forced "to consider its peaceful and legal options under international law" if Eritrea continued.

    Those options include terminating the pact or suspending part or all of it, Mesfin wrote ...

  16. #76
    Council Member Beelzebubalicious's Avatar
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    It's probably nothing. Maybe they are there to pick crops, like they were in 2006 and 2003...

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6057352.stm
    and
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3244204.stm

    Of course, if anyone has been on that border, you'd have to wonder what crops they're picking....especially in the TSZ

  17. #77
    Council Member Beelzebubalicious's Avatar
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    Default War Brews on the New Frontier

    This is an interesting article by Michela Wrong on how the deadline for the Algiers Agreement signed by Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2000 expires at the end of November and the implications for the future.

    By the way, Small Wars Forum readers might appreciate Michela Wrong's book, "I Didn't Do It For You: How the World Betrayed a Small African Nation", about Eritrea, especially Chapter 10, titled "Blowjobs, Bugging and Beer" about U.S. Military base called Kagnew Station in Eritrea. For more info from one of her sources of that article, go to http://www.geozazz.com/wrongreview.htm

    War brews on the new frontier
    Michela Wrong

    Published 25 October 2007

    Michela Wrong reports on the tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and the war brewing on the new frontier

    A grim deadline expires in a few weeks' time. It will pass unnoticed by the British public, but that doesn't make it any less important, not just for the two nations involved, but for Africa as a whole. For it sets the seal on an abject failure by the west to ensure that a vital African ally respects international law. And the act of defiance our governments have chosen to ignore will undermine peacemaking on the continent for decades to come.

    At the end of November, the frontier separating Eritrea from Ethiopia becomes officially demarcated, in the teeth of Ethiopian opposition. For five years, Addis Ababa has done its best to prevent cement pillars being placed along a line designated by the international Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission in April 2002, a ruling that both states originally agreed was to be final and binding. The exasperated commission chairman, Sir Elihu Lauterpacht, announced last November that if the stalemate continued, the border would automatically count as legally demarcated a year hence, pillars or no.
    http://www.newstatesman.com/200710250023

    Also see:

    Ethiopia, Eritrea Trade Blame on Boundary Dispute

    and

    Algiers Agreement

  18. #78
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Thanks for the links.

    I'm in the middle of Wrong's book now, and it's definitely a great read and interesting stuff.

  19. #79
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    Default Ethiopia and Eritrea: Stopping the Slide to War

    Report calls on the UN to enforce the border demarcation and the US to send a clear message to both sides that war will not be tolerated. I've seen nothing from either the UN or the US in the public. Anyone know if there's been any diplomatic dialogue on this subject from the US side?

    Ethiopia and Eritrea: Stopping the Slide to War


    Nairobi/New York/Brussels, 5 November 2007: The international community must act urgently to prevent Ethiopia and Eritrea from resuming their war and potentially throwing the entire Horn of Africa into new turmoil.

    Ethiopia and Eritrea: Stopping the Slide to War,* the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, warns of the real risk of renewed conflict and calls on the international community to move fast to stop it. The UN Security Council and the U.S. in particular must give both sides the clearest message that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated, and that the parties must comply with their obligations under international law, disengage on the ground and restore the demilitarised Temporary Security Zone (TSZ).

    “The military build-up on both sides has reached alarming proportions, and war could break out again within weeks,” says Gareth Evans, Crisis Group President. “There will be no easy military solution if that happens: we are looking at a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, destabilisation of Ethiopia and a horrible new humanitarian crisis”.

    Both sides had agreed in Algiers in 2000 to submit their border dispute to the Boundary Commission and accept its decision as final and binding. However, since its ruling in April 2002, Ethiopia has blocked physical demarcation of the border; Eritrea, with legal right on its side, then alienated many of its supporters by blocking the work of the UN peacekeepers. The issue will come to a decisive head – with a real risk of fighting breaking out – at the end of November, when the Boundary Commission has indicated it will close down unless it is allowed to proceed to demarcation.

    The UN Security Council and the U.S. must urgently make it clear to both sides that no use of force will be tolerated and that a party that resorts to it will be held accountable. Specifically, the U.S. should send a firm message to Ethiopia, that it will take diplomatic and economic measures against it if it attacks Eritrea. The Security Council should pass a resolution reiterating its support for the Boundary Commission decision and requesting it to remain beyond the end of November.

    The UN should also stress the requirements on Ethiopia to accept the Boundary Commission ruling and on Eritrea to withdraw its army from the TSZ. Members of the Security Council and other key international players should discuss economic incentives and disincentives that would likely be required to obtain cooperation in de-escalating the situation on the ground and implementing the Commission decision.

    “In the next weeks, urgent outside assistance is needed to ensure that the shooting does not resume,” says Don Steinberg, Crisis Group Vice President for Multilateral Affairs. “International indifference or mistaken confidence could cost the people of the Horn of Africa dearly and lead to a new protracted conflict in the region”.
    http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5136&l=1

  20. #80
    Council Member Beelzebubalicious's Avatar
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    This report was posted on November 1st. Gives some pretty clear evidence (at least so it appears to me) of preparations for war. Or, at least, both sides are trying real heard to make it appear as if they are.

    Report of the Secretary-General on Ethiopia and Eritrea (S/2007/645)
    I. Introduction

    1. The present report is submitted pursuant to paragraph 12 of Security Council resolution 1320 (2000) of 15 September 2000, and provides an update on developments in the Mission area since my previous report, dated 18 July 2007 (S/2007/440). The report also describes the activities of the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE).
    http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/...J?OpenDocument

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