Who is saying that an invasion of Somaila would be a cakewalk, and where are they saying it? Specifically, please. A citation would help.
It's difficult to comment on - or believe in - a plan one hasn't seen. A dollar goes a fair way on Luzon, but probably farther in Puntland. However, it's difficult to see how a meagre 8 million in aid money is going to convince people to abandon an enterprise that brings in many more millions every year, or how the Puntland government intends to compel the same people to abandon that business. They have to either convince or compel, and $8m seems unlikely to do either.
Not everything, but enough.
If you want the community here to discuss that prediction seriously, you might want to support it a bit more thoroughly. Why exactly do you think this is going to happen?
I could lift my full complement of fingers and toes several times over and have not one iota of influence over whatever the US intends or does not intend to do in Somalia. I personally don't think there's any intention to commit ground forces to Somalia in the near future, but if it happens we'll discuss it here, and those of us here will benefit from the discussion, and the US Government at large will either be unaware of the discussion or will ignore it. I suspect that you overestimate our influence by several orders of magnitude.
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