Africa should be on our radar screen... Asia also...
Africa should be on our radar screen... Asia also...
I wrote a paper on this war this fall, mostly on its causes as a factor of flaws in bilateral relations and the papering-over of longstanding issues with the rhetoric of revolutionary solidarity.In the pattern of postcolonial states, Prime Minister Zenawi and President Afeworki came to embody the image of their nations. In stamping their personalities and leadership styles on to otherwise weak national and bilateral institutions; however, they guaranteed that the resurgence of conflicts over identity and stature would have enormous consequences on the stability of the entire relationship. It is in this respect that the border conflict (posed in populist terms as a war among "brothers" and "cousins") exhibits an inability to structure rule in impersonal institutions. Soon after the border hostilities broke out in May 1998, Afeworki suggested that settlement would be elusive because of concerns "about pride, integrity, respect, trust, confidence and all those kinds of things. When you lose them, it becomes a big problem for us in this region; it is not always money or resources."
(Gilbert Khadiagala, “Reflections on the Ethiopian-Eritrean Border Conflict” Fletcher Forum of World Affairs. Vol. 23, No. 2, Fall 1999)
The Eritrea-Ethiopian war was kind of weird compared to most wars in Africa; both sides took out about a billion dollars of loans from the world bank, and then partook of the great fire sale that was the late 90s arms market. As it was fought, it was essentially a big 20th-century style conventional conflict with massive static defenses opposed by armored spearheads, etc, even a small air war providing a product demonstration of sorts for the Sukhoi-27 and Mig-29. The border dispute that started the war really hasn't been resolved to any degree (it really seems to be more a prestige thing than a concrete dispute). Both leaders have gotten worse on civil liberties and human rights since 2000. Anyway, eritrea has generally worked to try and frustrate ethiopian ambitions in somalia, etc. Also, the war cut off secure and easy port access for ethiopia, which the new somali gov't may try to provide instead.
Robert D. Kaplan has a dynamite book on the horn circa mid 1980s.
See Kaplan's fawning tribute to Eritrea and its dictator here. The Eritrean authorities know just what beats to hit with Kaplan - praise for former European imperialists and nice words about Israel and the U.S.
Yes, it's easy to be impressed with Afewerki. I was for awhile and so were so many Eritreans, but time has shown something different. This was written in 2003, when optimism was high and Afewerki did walk around w/out bodyguards.
Anyway, I've been thinking this little border skirmish is going to blow up again at any moment. Each time it doesn't. It feels like it's just a matter of time, though. Perhaps it's Ethiopia's other problems or it's Sudan that keeps this just below boiling.
Though Afewerki is not as well supported as he was in the past and life is getting worse in Eritrea, he doesn't seem like he's going anywhere soon. On the other hand, I'm not sure how Meles hangs on. Perhaps it's the age-old conflict distraction.
What's new out there? Anybody know anyone in the soup?
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