Looks like they moved most of this stuff
Harmony Project main page: http://ctc.usma.edu/harmony/harmony_menu.asp
(Mis)Adventures: http://ctc.usma.edu/aq/aqII.asp
US to Double Aid to Ethiopia's Ogaden
It appears as if the USG's diplomatic efforts with Ethiopia are of the carrot variety. USAID administrator, Henrietta Fore met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi to discuss tensions on the border with Eritrea and additional food aid to the Ogaden ($19 million to $45 million).
Regarding the potential conflict with Eritrea, Fore said "It is always easier to help a country at peace. It is because you can move around the country. People have more hope and more chance of having a little business, going to school, building a clinic," she added. "People always have more hope if there is stability and security in a country."
US Embassador to Ethiopia added that the two countries needed to resolve the disput themselves, but that a number of high level officials, including Rice herself, will be traveling to Ethiopia soon to impress on them the importance of preventing war.
Full story at http://voanews.com/english/2007-11-25-voa8.cfm
Looks like they moved most of this stuff
Harmony Project main page: http://ctc.usma.edu/harmony/harmony_menu.asp
(Mis)Adventures: http://ctc.usma.edu/aq/aqII.asp
PH Cannady
Correlate Systems
Eritrea: TPLF Regime Placing Newly Recruited Soldiers in the Frontline, Say Defecting Ethiopian Soldiers
Shabait.com (Asmara)
12 January 2008
Posted to the web 14 January 2008
Asmara
Five Ethiopian soldiers who recently arrived in Eritrea opposing the TPLF regime's war-mongering policy disclosed that the regime is placing newly recruited soldiers in the frontline and has given orders to veteran ones to shoot them whenever they try to escape backward.
They also indicated that at present the TPLF regime's Army is engaged in intensive military training.
The rest of the article elaborates on the deserters names, origins and claims of Ethiopian depredations.
http://allafrica.com/stories/200801140280.html
Ethiopia used these tactics during the 30-year civil war ("recruiting" civilians and putting them on the front lines and then shooting them if they tried to flee).
Both sides continue to build up and prepare on both sides of the "border". See the UN Security Council's latest report at http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/...6?OpenDocument. Unfortunately, Eritrea has cut off diesel fuel supplies to UNMEE and UNMEE is saying they'll have to pull out of the TSZ. Once that happens, it'll just be the Ethiopians and the Eritreans and some itchy trigger fingers. W/out a clear border demarcated on the ground, it will be easy for either side to claim the other has violated the border....
If UNMEE does pull out, it will be interesting to see what or if the international community responds.
I remember when I was in Addis in 1988 - Mengistu was still in power and there was still a 2400 curfew on the streets - we were coming back from a trip out to Langano and the government had the buses lined up in the square as a marshaling point - troops were out rounding up children (I was told 12-14 years old) to go North - there they would receive a weapon.
The regime was pretty hard up at that point. Most of their Soviet equipment was either destroyed, captured or in disrepair - Hinds and Hips sat onthe airfield being canibalized to keep a few things flying.
There was an attempted coup that year (88/89) - Mengistu had left town and the other leaders (military and cabinet) got together and decided they'd had enough I guess. Anyway, the story goes that one of the invitees was a relative of Mengistu - and things went down hill from there.
Its sad to see that area still at war. I knew some Eritreans, and I knew many Ethipians, they were good people, with an incredible history and culture. Makes you wonder if we'd have done things different in 1975 (I think that was the year we left - Eric is that right?) if things would be at least a little different now - I don't know.
Best, Rob
I believe the US closed Kagnew Station in '77. After Mengistu was ousted, there were a lot of kids on the streets with guns. Not a pretty scene.
I heard stories from the Eritrean side about how the Ethiopians would send wave after wave of farmer/civilians towards them, some just armed with sticks and knives. The Eritreans would engage them in hand-to-hand combat to save ammunition.
I was a teacher in Eritrea and many of my students joined the military after they graduated. Most of them will probably be on the front lines of a new war. I hate to even think about it and it makes me crazy to think that it can and should be avoided.
Rob, did you ever get up to Kagnew Station? Did you know some of those guys? I've just heard and read stories....
Last edited by Beelzebubalicious; 01-25-2008 at 03:12 PM. Reason: forgot to ask...
Hi Eric - know as far as I made it out was Langano, the Blue Nile Gorge and upt to MT Zuquala - mostly day trip sorts - part of it was the schedul we worked in the MSG DET there. I lost a couple of friends on the A/C that Congessman Leeland was on when they were out for humanitarian purposes and went down.
Lots of HN folks on the compound, as well as the expat type friends and family of the Italian girl (her family had been there for some time) I dated lamented that the Americans had ever left.
Quite a collection of folks in Addis - some great NGO/IO types.
Best, Rob
Langano
Langano, it is a long time since I have heard that name. My father kept a dingy on the lake and I sailed there as a child. Mind you it was Emperor Haile Selassie at that time and Eritrea did not exist.
UN’s Ethiopia-Eritrea force at risk
By Harvey Morris at the United Nations
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7d909f26-c...077b07658.html
Published: January 29 2008 22:49 | Last updated: January 29 2008 22:49
The United Nations might be forced to evacuate its peacekeepers next month from the tense border zone between Ethiopia and Eritrea, removing the most visible deterrent to renewed warfare between the east African neighbours.
The UN Security Council was due on Wednesday to renew the mandate of the 1,700 peacekeepers for a further six months, despite the news that Eritrean restrictions on fuel supplies to the UN force made its situation untenable beyond February. Azouz Ennifar, UN special representative in the region, said last week the force would soon have only enough diesel stocks to stage a retreat.
They're negotiating a 6 month extension. Whatever. The UN Security Council is a bunch of Nancies.
A new conflict could break out between Eritrea and Ethiopia, the UN says, as it prepares to withdraw its troops.
The UN gave a Wednesday deadline for Eritrea to restore fuel supplies to the peacekeepers on its side of the border, or it said they would have to withdraw.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7232140.stm
UNITED NATIONS, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Eritrea has ignored a U.N. deadline to grant peacekeepers on its border with Ethiopia access to badly needed fuel, but U.N. troops fear war could break out and have not begun leaving, a U.N. official said.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon set a Wednesday deadline for Eritrea to allow the U.N. peacekeepers to refuel, saying they faced a fuel crisis. But the U.N. official said on Thursday that Eritrea had ignored the deadline.
http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnN07383114.html
Oooh, you'd better give us that diesel or we're gonna, we're gonna,... put our tails between our legs and bug out of here...bluff called. Now what?
UN stays put in Eritrea, fears war - official
Well, still no diesel, but looks like we'll hang out just a tad longer.
UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Eritrea has ignored a U.N. deadline to grant peacekeepers on its border with Ethiopia access to badly needed fuel, but despite the shortfall, a U.N. official said U.N. troops are reluctant to leave because they fear war could erupt.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon set a Wednesday deadline for Eritrea to allow the U.N. peacekeepers to refuel, saying they faced a fuel crisis. But the U.N. official said on Thursday that Eritrea had ignored the deadline.
"The U.N. cannot afford to leave because it would create the conditions for a resumption of the conflict," a U.N. official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. "Abandoning our positions would sanctify a resumption of the conflict."
If you want to blend in, take the bus
what options does the UN have?
I really don't think "tail between our legs" is quite fair here--it is a Chapter 6 monitor and verify mission, so UNMEE really has very limited leverage. The "we'll go if we don't get fuel" threat was partly a warning of impending operational necessity, partly a bluff intended to get the Eritreans to back down, but was also partly a wake-up call to the AU, UNSC, and others to get more engaged on the issue.Originally Posted by Beelzebubalicious
The bluff part failed, the other part may not have.
The UNMEE websites are here and here.
Fuel to move?
I have not seen anything to indicate that Eritrea are going to allow the force on their side of the boarder exit across the boarder. Earlier reports seemed to indicate the UN force were at a point where they only had fuel for a withdrawal at that time and if they stay on - presumably - will only be able to withdraw if Eritrea either permit on of three things - fuel supplies, crossing the boarder or helicopters in their air space.
Last edited by JJackson; 02-08-2008 at 08:26 PM.
Some very good points, Rex...
Their mandate was recently extended and their mission far from over.
However, bluffing Africans has never resulted in a favorable outcome (at least not where I was stationed). A threat must sadly be carried out, or not used at all. The wake up call was a necessity and perhaps even a little late.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Last I read, they were reading, though one UN official was quoted as saying, "Abandoning our positions would sanctify a resumption of the conflict." Note the words "abandon" and "sanctify".
I would love to see UNMEE fly in the fuel anyway. What's Eritrea going to do, shoot them down? I know they would never do that, but it would be interesting to see...
Agreed. The UNSC could authorize it too (and in so doing signal their resolve on the broader border issues).
I hope this isn't another case where the PKO in the field is left high and dry because UN member states avoid the diplomatic heavy lifting necessary to support their mission.
The last war resulted in tens of thousands of casualties (and even more if one factors in the indirect cost of redirecting scarce resources from development to warfighting in two very poor countries). It would be nice to avoid another one, and UNMEE is a potentially important part of that.
(Incidentally, the DPKO website suggests at least a few US personnel are assigned to the mission.)
I know this potential war probably doesn't even rank in the top 10 foreign policy issues in the USG, but damn, it should. If Ethiopia and Eritrea go to war, then there's not even one single stable state in the horn.
I would expect some behind the scenes communication and arm twisting from the USG and/or European countries, but then again, there could also be nothing happening.
I tend to agree with Eritrea on the border demarcation. It's been demarcated and Ethiopia wants to contest. Ethiopia stands to lose from the border being physically demarcated b/c then they really lose the opportunity to reclaim land and perhaps make a play for the port of Asseb. Frazer seems to be pandering to Ethiopia and letting them stall and drag this out.
What I don't understand is what Eritrea stands to gain from kicking out UNMEE. Of couse, I know many Eritreans are spoiling to get back at Ethiopia for the last war and are this time, better prepared. Ethiopia is stretched and vulnerable and really can't manage an intensive war. So, perhaps that's it.
UN troops 'trapped' in Eritrea
UN troops 'trapped' in Eritrea
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7248085.stm
It would appear Eritrea is going to try and exploit the situation the UN force have got themselves into.
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