That is an Apple and Orange Pie in the Sky.
Apples and Oranges: Downtown Baghdad in 2003 versus Korengal Valley today is like comparing downtown San Francisco to some remote town in the south that doesn't take kindly to non-WASPs.
Made into a pie: Thinking you're going to get similar proficiency from most graduates of DLI (see Ken and IntelTroop's posts)
Tossed into the sky: Thinking that you're going to attract people with potential by offering a bonus that amounts to $10K per year for an extended commitment of 6 years when they can go to college, have fun, major in Arabic, and then earn 6 figures without getting shot at.
Also - a retention bonus to change MOS means that those Soldiers are being taken away from some other part of the Army. In 2001 to 2004, most units were badly undermanned. In OIF I, we had the luxury of stop-loss and stop-move to plus up the unit. My company deployed to OIF III at 80% strength. That was typical for the BDE. I don't think taking thousands more Soldiers away from undermanned units was feasible at the time. The situation back then was also significantly more uncertain, so I would not say "hindsight is 20/20" and then follow it up with "but..." You have to make decisions with the information available at the time.
If a bonus didn't work to retain Officers, then why would a pay cut work to attract linguists?
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