'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[KingJaja]

davidbfpo,

I've read through it, it doesn't say anything that we haven't discussed before, but it brings to light the emerging conflict between Muslims & Christians on the interface of the Sahel - a region extending from the Atlantic Ocean to the Indian Ocean.

Christians in both Nigeria & Kenya are increasingly seeing Islam as an intolerant cult - a threat to their existence. I'm afraid, the events in Westgate shopping mall & Boko Haram feed a narrative, a narrative that most of the World might choose to ignore before it is too late.

Large scale conflicts between Christians & Muslims in Africa are sadly, inevitable. Much as I don't want them to happen, they will happen.

[KingJaja]

I've mentioned this earlier, African nations like Nigeria and Kenya are very different from other "traditional" fronts on the war on terror like Somalia, Algeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria etc.

All the nations I mentioned are Islamic-dominated nations, Nigeria & Kenya are not. Kenya can be said to be "Christian-dominated" (Muslims are a fraction of the population), but Nigeria has about equal numbers of Muslims & Christians - and that's where the problems start.

Most scholars haven't investigated the impact of Boko Haram's violence on the perception of Islam by Nigeria's significant Christian community.

I live in Nigeria, the impact is quite significant and it will be reflected in the results of the next elections.

The next elections in Nigeria are likely to be a cliff hanger. I'm almost certain that it would be virtually impossible to conduct elections in Nigeria's North East (the epicenter of Boko Haram), so there would be shouts of disenfranchisement.

There are likely to be two major candidates. One will be a Christian (the incumbent) while the other is most definitely going to be a Muslim from Nigeria's North. Four years of Boko Haram violence against Churches in the North is likely to result in heavy support for the Christian candidate from the Christian community, while the converse is likely to apply for Muslims.

Right now Boko Haram is brutal but in a way, manageable. The next set of elections are likely to split the religious & sectional fault-lines wide open.

This could be worse than Yugoslavia if not handled well.

No nation on earth has the resources or capability to prevent Nigeria from imploding if the Nigerian ruling elite doesn't navigate 2015 with care. The language from the political elite isn't very encouraging.

[KingJaja]

NY Times on Boko Haram:

But about 40 miles away in Maiduguri, the sprawling state capital from where the militant group emerged, Boko Haram has been largely defeated for now, according to officials, activists and residents — a remarkable turnaround that has brought thousands of people back to the streets. The city of two million, until recently emptied of thousands of terrified inhabitants, is bustling again after four years of fear.

For several months, there have been no shootings or bombings in Maiduguri, and the sense of relief — with women lingering at market stalls on the sandy streets and men chatting under the shade of feathery green neem trees in the 95-degree heat — is palpable.

Boko Haram has been pushed out of Maiduguri largely because of the efforts of a network of youthful informer-vigilantes fed up with the routine violence and ideology of the insurgents they grew up with.

“I’m looking at these people: they collect your money, they kill you — Muslims, Christians,” said the network’s founder, Baba Lawal Ja’faar, a car and sheep salesman by trade. “The Boko Haram are saying, ‘Don’t go to the school; don’t go to the hospital.’ It’s all rubbish.”

[davidbfpo]

This thread is now rather large and will be closed. A successor thread exists and will be renamed 'Nigeria: watching and debating its future'. Sadly I don't think Nigeria is going away.

Thanks to Kingjaja for his contributions.