'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[KingJaja]

From what I read, it doesn't seem that Boko Haram is inclined to being talked out of murdering people. Do you think the Nigerian Army can keep them suppressed to the extent that the people won't sort of take things into their own hands in a very big way?

Part of the Nigerian Army strategy seems to be to empower local civilians to take on Boko Haram (hence the "Civilian Joint Task Force"). Boko Haram's most vicious recent attacks have been against these people.

I expect the army to redouble efforts, re-arm the civilians and have them take on Boko Haram again. It will be very messy.

[carl]

Part of the Nigerian Army strategy seems to be to empower local civilians to take on Boko Haram (hence the "Civilian Joint Task Force"). Boko Haram's most vicious recent attacks have been against these people.

I expect the army to redouble efforts, re-arm the civilians and have them take on Boko Haram again. It will be very messy.

That is a classic small war fighting action, arming the local civilians. How is the army going about that? Is there some kind of formally organized entity like the CIDG or RF/PFs in Vietnam, recognizing and supporting something already forming on its own like the Sons of Iraq or is it a more informal thing?

(I expect David may moves this exchange which would be fair enough. Moderator adds: Done 5th October, posts copied to Nigeria thread. Ends)

[JMA]

That is a classic small war fighting action, arming the local civilians. How is the army going about that? Is there some kind of formally organized entity like the CIDG or RF/PFs in Vietnam, recognizing and supporting something already forming on its own like the Sons of Iraq or is it a more informal thing?

(I expect David may moves this exchange which would be fair enough.)

Carl, this smacks of reckless desperation.

The key to any grand strategy is to make sure that whatever you do/use/implement during a 'war' it does not lead to greater polarization of groups/factions after the war.

As with anywhere - and most certainly in Africa - vigilantly 'justice' will often lead to scores being settled etc. Soon will get get out of control.

A sure indication the police and military have lost control.

[carl]

JMA:

You know Africa. I only know a little. But my question and observation were made because this is a classic thing done when fighting a small war, you get the civilians on your side and into the fight in an active way. The best way to my mind is if they are somehow connected to the gov. The way the Thais did it, by putting national policemen in a village and having the civilian effort coalesce around him, is a good way. But I imagine the best way will depend upon the circumstances and place. That the Nigerian army is doing this kind of thing is to be expected but the way they are going to go about it seems to be important which is why I asked.

You know the area well. Do you think the army or gov in Nigeria can do it in such a way that they can keep some kind of control?

[davidbfpo]

I have copied eleven posts from the thread 'Mumbai-style attack in Kenya' to here, as they refer to events in Nigeria and the consequences.

[KingJaja]

Interesting article on Boko Haram by a local journalist:

Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan, a third in a succession of non-soldier elected Presidents since 1965, seems overly optimistic about the fire power of his troops. The military had offered a full combatant response to the lingering terror activities by the Boko Haram, a position approved by the President, now bugged down by outright war against the terrorist band.

Following the scenario he was offered by the military, the President once assured Nigerians that the insurgents would be routed within six months now his troops are fighting hard to contain the radical terror gang. Last May, in adherence to the position of the military, he declared a state of emergency in affected states.

Five months into the emergency rule in three north east states, both sides have been served a heavy dosage of casualty. The sect, fighting with renewed energy and ruthlessness maintains that its doctrine abhors any form of representative government and that it would continue to fight whether or not a Christian was in power in Nigeria. To the credit of the military, most members of the elite Shura leadership council of the terror sect have been taken out.

This is clearly a setback for the sect that, before May, was at the verge of declaring over 20 local government areas of Borno and Yobe states, its official territory, effectively excising the strip from Nigeria. Geographically, the territory is weather stricken, desert land. But strategically it had the potential of robbing Nigeria access to its border with Niger, Cameroun and Chad republics.

A trusted source within the sect said Boko Haram has received assurances from al-Qaeda and from other international Jihadi brothers of material and human support. The sect planned to boost its militants by compelling youths and men that are fit, to take up arms or risk being killed.

Nigerians are beginning to credit the Federal government with the good judgment in sending in the soldiers given that the sect’s armaments have been wholesomely destroyed and narrowing its terror activities to the fringes of two states.

A trusted inside assessment of the impact of the military action reveals that at a point, the military had taken out a substantial number of the leadership of the sect thereby isolating its leader, Shekau. Had the military pushed further at the point, Shekau himself might have been taken out. But he got a respite as the military looked over its shoulder, ensuring that Shekau embarked in a rebuilding process.

It is believed that Shekau has appointed a new Shura that is said to be made up of younger, more radicalized hot heads unlike its predecessors that were Shekau’s peers and often brought his judgments to question. Creation of military backed vigilantes, a group of youths eager to reclaim their communities, counts among the ‘success stories.’

http://saharareporters.com/article/b...KVqp4M.twitter

[davidbfpo]

An article in National Geographic on Northern Nigeria Conflict, which is a sign of a far broader readership than most reporting in the USA. Nothing startling, some interesting detail and I await KingJaja's review.

Link:http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/20...ia/verini-text