'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[Jedburgh]

JSOU, 31 May 2012: Confronting the Terrorism of Boko Haram in Nigeria

In this monograph counterterrorism expert James Forest assesses the threat Boko Haram poses to Nigeria and U.S. national security interests. As Dr. Forest notes, Boko Haram is largely a local phenomenon, though one with strategic implications, and must be understood and addressed within its local context and the long standing grievances that motivate terrorist activity. Dr. Forest deftly explores Nigeria’s ethnic fissures and the role of unequal distribution of power in fueling terrorism. Indeed, these conditions, combined with the ready availability of weapons, contribute to Nigeria’s other security challenges including militancy in the Niger Delta and organized
crime around the economic center of the country, Lagos....

[davidbfpo]

We discovered an Improvised Explosive Device factory where suspected terrorists were in the process of coupling the IEDs and we detonated some.

The factory was cordoned and searched and the following items were recovered: IEDs at various stages of development, cans of 33ccl, a sack containing 33ccl, empty cans and two IEDs packed in fire extinguisher tubes as well as timing devices.....the troops arrested one suspect, while others escaped, shot and wounded two residents in the area.

Link:http://ascology.com/news/local-news/...medium=twitter

[davidbfpo]

it is difficult to quantify the risk that Boko Haram presents outside Nigeria or to say for certain that it is on the verge of becoming an international – rather than a local – threat.....there is no evidence tying Boko Haram to al-Qaeda central or the broader jihadi community on an operational level....Boko Haram continues to resist becoming a wider movement. It fights for the realisation of its founding objectives – to end Western education and influence in Nigeria and to Islamise the country.

Link:http://iissvoicesblog.wordpress.com/...ican-al-qaeda/

Almost like 'The Accident Guerilla' argument.

[KingJaja]

Is that myopia or what? Nobody in Nigeria cares whether Boko Haram is an "African Al Qaeda" or not.

Are we going to wait until full-blown, sectarian, Lebanon-style crisis blows up until we realize the danger Boko Haram poses?

[Ken White]

The answer to your question is probably.

Glad you reappeared, was getting worried that you'd wandered off...

[Bill Moore]

Posted by KingJaja

Is that myopia or what? Nobody in Nigeria cares whether Boko Haram is an "African Al Qaeda" or not.

Are we going to wait until full-blown, sectarian, Lebanon-style crisis blows up until we realize the danger Boko Haram poses?

There are plenty of links between Boko Haram and Al Qaeda related groups in Africa, and those in the know actually making decisions understand that. However, that doesn't mean Boko Haram will conduct attacks outside the borders of Nigeria. The Nigerians have proven to be very a savvy lot and they have sophisticated organized crime organizations that operate globally, not to mention their effective computer crimes that range from simple scams to sophisticated attacks. I have no idea if the Muslim Nigerians are part of these organizations, but the Nigerians as a whole are plenty sophisticated enough to wreck havoc.

AQ affiliation is just one concern, but is the periscope we tend to view the world through, which too often blinds us to other important issues that can have an impact on our interests. Nigeria is important whether or not AQ is present, it is the largest nation in Africa, it is the HQs of ECOWAS which does a fair job of retaining some degree of regional stability in W. Africa, and it produces a fair amount of oil. The bottom line is if the situation in Nigeria escalates significantly it will most likely further destabilize the region due to direct spill over from its borders and indirectly by degrading ECOWAS.

All that said I don't know what the U.S. should do that it isn't doing already?

[KingJaja]

A few things the US should do.

1. Declare Boko Haram (the entire organisation) as an FTO. Already prominent Islamic clerics have openly challenged BH and for the US to hide behind "political correctness" might be misconstrued as acquiescence.

2. Understand the internal dynamics of the struggle. The Southern Christian population will react, but BH is also reaction to the Northern Muslim establishment. The future unity of Nigeria is seriously at stake - this is what should worry ALL analysts.

[Chowing]

There are plenty of links between Boko Haram and Al Qaeda related groups in Africa, and those in the know actually making decisions understand that. However, that doesn't mean Boko Haram will conduct attacks outside the borders of Nigeria.

They have more than enough territory and people to keep them busy just in Nigeria. After all, they do not claim any global goals that I know of.

Nigeria is important whether or not AQ is present, it is the largest nation in Africa, it is the HQs of ECOWAS which does a fair job of retaining some degree of regional stability in W. Africa, and it produces a fair amount of oil. The bottom line is if the situation in Nigeria escalates significantly it will most likely further destabilize the region due to direct spill over from its borders and indirectly by degrading ECOWAS.

All that said I don't know what the U.S. should do that it isn't doing already?

Yep. Yet it has little press attention in the USA or Europe.

[Chowing]

The number one danger that Boko Haram posses is that it is fully operational and has a devastatingly violent track record in Africa's most populous country. That in itself is of enough concern for the world community to take notice.
Fact of the matter is the AQIM and Boko Haram have each claimed "communication" and "ties" with the other. This may all be rhetoric, but there is enough smoke to cause pause and concern.

Sorry, that I have been away for awhile.