'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[KingJaja]

Stan,

It is not that easy to tamper with food or water sources.

In urban areas, virtually everyone has a private borehall (that is enclosed with the gates of the compound). In rural areas, there is either a well or a stream/river.

Sad to say this, but if you kill a thousand people a day in rural areas. No one will bat an eyelid, what happens in the city is what counts, unfortunately.

As we speak, children (hundreds of them) are dead or are going to die due to lead poisoning from gold prospecting. Nobody is terribly bothered about that (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zamfara...oning_epidemic).

Even if a contaminated bag of cornflakes is put in a grocery store. How does one conclude that the deaths are attributable to poison in the cornflakes? Nigeria does not have a robust forensics team and deaths are more likely to be attributed to Juju.

[Stan]

Stan,

It is not that easy to tamper with food or water sources.

In urban areas, virtually everyone has a private borehall (that is enclosed with the gates of the compound). In rural areas, there is either a well or a stream/river.

Sad to say this, but if you kill a thousand people a day in rural areas. No one will bat an eyelid, what happens in the city is what counts, unfortunately.

As we speak, children (hundreds of them) are dead or are going to die due to lead poisoning from gold prospecting. Nobody is terribly bothered about that (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zamfara...oning_epidemic).

Even if a contaminated bag of cornflakes is put in a grocery store. How does one conclude that the deaths are attributable to poison in the cornflakes? Nigeria does not have a robust forensics team and deaths are more likely to be attributed to Juju.

Jaja,
You are depressing me today with no hope in sight !
One of the many things that surprised me in Zaire was how much they cared for their offspring (at least until the civil war started).

It won't be juju if it occurs frequently and BH takes credit for doing it. If you recall the scares in the US when someone tampered with pain relievers - the entire country freaked out despite the fact it was isolated to a very small area. As you point out, if it takes place in Lagos, it will be time to freak out for Nigeria too.

We had an explosion here years ago (coincidentally in a box of corn flakes). It was months before people would even enter the store and the owner nearly went bankrupt. That's kind of the idea - you don't get off on Western corn flakes and you make your point.

None of this actually makes sense, it's just a pattern that we end up following from all over the world. Given the operational environment - Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information - there's only a few things left on the checklist for mayhem. BH is going after what remains "soft".

[ganulv]

It won't be juju if it occurs frequently and BH takes credit for doing it. If you recall the scares in the US when someone tampered with pain relievers - the entire country freaked out despite the fact it was isolated to a very small area. As you point out, if it takes place in Lagos, it will be time to freak out for Nigeria too.

We had an explosion here years ago (coincidentally in a box of corn flakes). It was months before people would even enter the store and the owner nearly went bankrupt. That's kind of the idea - you don't get off on Western corn flakes and you make your point.

A little over a decade ago the Burkinabé flipped out all of a sudden about a commercial food additive being used in their (CFA–style) baguettes which had been banned elsewhere on the continent and in Europe. And this in a place and time with less electronic media than today’s Nigeria! (Before anyone makes any comments about the Burkinabé being poorly informed I would point out that ready access to TV and Twitter does not necessarily lead to one being well–informed. Often it seems to do just the opposite. )

[Chowing]

Just became aware of this and thought all would like to read it and comment. It will take me awhile to read and digest.
Here is the official document reprinted by allafrica.com
http://allafrica.com/stories/201203011203.html

[KingJaja]

It won't be juju if it occurs frequently and BH takes credit for doing it. If you recall the scares in the US when someone tampered with pain relievers - the entire country freaked out despite the fact it was isolated to a very small area. As you point out, if it takes place in Lagos, it will be time to freak out for Nigeria too.

We had an explosion here years ago (coincidentally in a box of corn flakes). It was months before people would even enter the store and the owner nearly went bankrupt. That's kind of the idea - you don't get off on Western corn flakes and you make your point.

None of this actually makes sense, it's just a pattern that we end up following from all over the world. Given the operational environment - Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information - there's only a few things left on the checklist for mayhem. BH is going after what remains "soft".

Most Nigerians don't buy their processed food from large Walmart style department stores. They buy it from "mammy market" type stands (a few cigarettes, a few tins of milk, some loaves of bread, soap, detergent, soft drinks - you get my drift). There are hundreds of thousands of these kind of stores, so it is virtually impossible for Boko Haram to infiltrate all of them.

Most of us don't even eat cornflakes. We eat bread or akara or some locally produced food. The food we consume typically comes from a nearby bakery or is cooked by our wives or the local "Mama Put" (I'm more confident of Mama Put's ability to poison me due to poor hygiene than Boko Haram's ). Trust me, I have been poisoned by Mama Put severally.

Most agricultural produce is farmed and consumed in the same location (e.g. cassava and vegetables). Foodstuffs like meat, beans and tomatoes come from the North, but how are you going to poison tomatoes or beans? We don't have refrigerated trucks, so the meat coming from Northern Nigeria has to travel on its four feet before getting anywhere - if you poison the cows, they'll be dead by the time they reach Abuja, not to talk about Lagos!

Processed foods like sugar, flour, milk etc usually come from factories in the South. Unless Boko Haram finds a way to infiltrate these factories and apply poisons to these foodstuffs, we are safe - but that is unlikely.

Nigeria actually has a quite effective food and drug regulation agency and in the unlikely event that BH manages to apply poison to a batch of noodles - well the factory gets sealed and business is lost. If BH claims responsibility for these deaths it will merely alert people on what products to avoid because our hapless forensics people wouldn't even know what is going on.

The wider point is that unlike the West, there is very little public infrastructure in Nigeria. I have my own borehole, I provide my own water and I largely provide my own electricity. I also contribute to my security by paying out of my pocket for a security man and I also contribute towards paving the streets in my housing estate and our children go to private schools.

Also remember that Nigeria has abundant food and water supplies (have you ever heard of an Ethiopia style famine in Nigeria since the Civil War?).

[KingJaja]

It is one thing to diagnose a problem, but another to devise an appropriate solution. The truth is that the US Military isn't really the right tool for the job, at least in Nigeria.

Nigeria needs a few things (a) Capacity building for the security services (primarily the police) (b) economic transformation (c) political settlement and (d) intelligence gathering to deal with the threats of insurgency.

Boko Haram is really a police problem, not a military problem. Nigeria has close to 400,000 police officers. So if our police were remotely competent, it would be quite easy to root out BH. The problem is that they are not.

The Nigerian police is managed centrally by the Federal Government and recruitment and training is carried out by the center. The result is that many policemen in say, Kano, don't speak the local language. This hampers the ability to gather intelligence and reduces effectiveness.

This has been pointed out severally - localise the police, replace central policing with community based policing, but evidently, the political will is lacking.

This is the first thing that needs to be done before we get to the issue to remuneration, conditions of service, training and equipment.

It's low hanging fruit but nobody wants to do it - BH may force the government's hand though.

This isn't really AFRICOM's gig.

Economic transformation isn't AFRICOM's thing either and the experience of the past fifty years shows that good intentions aren't a substitute for competence (USAID, DFID, World Bank please take note). The only thing that is going to make this happen is when the ruling class see it in their interest to build roads, improve access to education and water and not merely steal funds.

You couldn't get Mobutu to see need for this (even on the pain of death) and it is going to take a genuine religious conversion for Mugabe to see the logic, but for some reason Kibaki, Kagame, Zenawi and Museveni (albeit reluctantly) are doing something about this. Only God knows what will get the ruling class in Nigeria to see reason, but we are still hopeful.

Political settlement: there is a political component to the whole BH saga and it needs to be resolved. The North feels aggrieved, but it needs to be "settled" in a way that doesn't create a backlash in the South. Jonathan won by capturing four out of the six geo-political zones (Niger Delta, South-East, South-West and the Middle Belt). The North-East and North-West is pissed off with him.

Can Jonathan win the next round of elections without the support of the North-East and North-West? Yes, but he needs to do something to keep the peace in the North-East and North-West.

Finally this is what Tom Barnett said recently about AFRICOM:

Africa may be booming right now, but to the extent that any of us recognize that, it just becomes the excuse to finally indulge our long-standing compassion fatigue regarding the seemingly nonstop series of internal wars, famines and epidemics that continue to plague the continent. That strategically shortsighted view is reflected in the U.S. military’s recently established Africa Command, whose marching orders might as well be to make sure what happens in Africa stays in Africa.

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/a...foreign-policy

[Stan]

Most Nigerians don't buy their processed food from large Walmart style department stores.

Most of us don't even eat cornflakes. We eat bread or akara or some locally produced food.

Most agricultural produce is farmed and consumed in the same location (e.g. cassava and vegetables).

Also remember that Nigeria has abundant food and water supplies (have you ever heard of an Ethiopia style famine in Nigeria since the Civil War?).

Jaja,
Your points are well taken. My point, based on little more than history and experience - has never made sense, but that never stopped those events from happening.

As I reread our posts from December there's a clear path that the BH have taken. Not something they copied from a Jihad bible, something they learned from living in Nigeria. Going after schools is easy and sadistic. Once those are no longer available or are too hard to do, Well !

Matt,
I loved those baguettes from the local market

[Stan]

Just became aware of this and thought all would like to read it and comment. It will take me awhile to read and digest.
Here is the official document reprinted by allafrica.com
http://allafrica.com/stories/201203011203.html

Thanks for the link !

But, before we all get our panties in a knot, keep in mind that every spring, every major command is called to DC to report their "posture," to Congress. That said, if you as the Combatant Commander, don't sound like your command is the best thing since peanut butter on sliced bread (meaning your sierra doesn't stink), you can kiss your annual budget goodbye

You darn well better have noteworthy accomplishments (beyond all human feet) and horrific challenges (that require mucho cash)

Or, you can kiss your annual budget (and career as a General) goodbye

Postulating is like a military dude trying to play politician (without having had a frontal lobotomy).

[Dayuhan]

BH is merely identifying single points of failure in the hopes of crippling larger systems. Going after schools is not exactly what most would have assumed to be logical. They have not gone after agriculture, food and water which are abundant and very easy targets. But then, they have no intent on leaving Nigeria, so they are less likely to attack the very logistical system they need to survive. Really odd Sierra !

BH often seems to describe their attacks as responses to some provocation... not saying they necessarily are, but BH seems to want to claim they are. Is it possible that targets are in some cases selected according to the nature of what they want to claim as provocation... e.g. attacks on schools selected as a "response" to raids on madrassas? In that case the strategic value of the terget would be less a consideration than the extent to which it reinforces the perception of provocation.

[KingJaja]

Yes, BH claimed the reason why "Western" schools are being attacked is because madrassas were attacked by security services (that sounds plausible).

Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture - how does this thing end?
Plausible scenarios:

1. Insurgency runs out of steam. Northerners realise that they want a future for their children more than they want to give the police a black eye. BH is run out of town. Jonathan consolidates his position.

2. BH succeeds, aggravates the rift that already exists between Christian and Muslim in Nigeria. Northern Christians call up on Christians in the South to rise to their defence. Polarisation intensifies, hostilities commence. Nigeria ceases to exist as a united entity.

Given the ineptitude of the Nigerian security services these are the two most possible scenarios. Which one do you think is likely to occur?

[Dayuhan]

Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture - how does this thing end?
Plausible scenarios:

1. Insurgency runs out of steam. Northerners realise that they want a future for their children more than they want to give the police a black eye. BH is run out of town. Jonathan consolidates his position.

2. BH succeeds, aggravates the rift that already exists between Christian and Muslim in Nigeria. Northern Christians call up on Christians in the South to rise to their defence. Polarisation intensifies, hostilities commence. Nigeria ceases to exist as a united entity.

Given the ineptitude of the Nigerian security services these are the two most possible scenarios. Which one do you think is likely to occur?

I wouldn't want to speculate on probabilities.

There's a third plausible scenario, of course: stalemate, with recurring outbreaks of sectarian violence but neither side able to gain a decisive victory.

A fourth scenario would be to have the government apply sufficient force to suppress BH, then follow up with a large scale investment program designed to undermine support for radical movements. Guess that's not too plausible.

I'll be curious to see how BH evolves, assuming they're successful with initial objectives. If they do succeed in kicking off a full-blown insurgency or sectarian conflict, they will have to evolve into a more overtly political movement, or else a parallel political movement may emerge and eclipse them. Will BH morph into a Nigerian version of the Muslim Brotherhood?

A terrorist group is a useful vehicle for starting conflict. To exploit that conflict and pursue political goal the terrorist group has to become something else. Can BH make that transition?

[Chowing]

Yes, BH claimed the reason why "Western" schools are being attacked is because madrassas were attacked by security services (that sounds plausible).

Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture - how does this thing end?
Plausible scenarios:

1. Insurgency runs out of steam. Northerners realise that they want a future for their children more than they want to give the police a black eye. BH is run out of town. Jonathan consolidates his position.

2. BH succeeds, aggravates the rift that already exists between Christian and Muslim in Nigeria. Northern Christians call up on Christians in the South to rise to their defence. Polarisation intensifies, hostilities commence. Nigeria ceases to exist as a united entity.

Given the ineptitude of the Nigerian security services these are the two most possible scenarios. Which one do you think is likely to occur?

Number 1 seems extremely improbable. It will take some real "conversion" by BH to begin to think about the Northerners children. The Northerners themselves are being led by the elite who back BH. As you have said before it will take a reworking of the police force to run BH out of town. Given their present momentum and police ineffectiveness, I do not see number 1 happening.

In fact as the security forces fight back it seems to be giving BH more incentive, provocation, and rhetoric for recruitment, which all lead to number 2, in some shape of form. Which I could be more optimistic, but I do not see any solution until things become a whole lot worse.

One thing that has been left out of these scenarios is some outside intervention or activity. I no longer see the US military as taking any action, but I do see growing chances the al-Qaeda or the greater jihadist movement moving in, if only in a small, effectual manner. The always come in where chaos already exists, often letting some other entity draw most the heat like Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan and al-Shabaab in Somalia.

What do they have to gain? Training ground and a place to hide.

[Chowing]

I wouldn't want to speculate on probabilities.

A terrorist group is a useful vehicle for starting conflict. To exploit that conflict and pursue political goal the terrorist group has to become something else. Can BH make that transition?

I think this a chief reason the Northern elites are backing BH. They are letting them be the muscle and do the dirty work. Once BH agitates enough, the elite, with somewhat cleaner robes can step in and either campaign for an independent north or become major players in some sort of reform. I doubt that BH is savvy or wise enough to become a political player. The elites most likely understand this.

Don't get me wrong the people in the north do have some genuine grievances, but as is often the case, those who have some power (like the northern elite) use the grievances or plight of the greater populous to consolidate and even increase their own power.

[Stan]

BH often seems to describe their attacks as responses to some provocation... not saying they necessarily are, but BH seems to want to claim they are. Is it possible that targets are in some cases selected according to the nature of what they want to claim as provocation... e.g. attacks on schools selected as a "response" to raids on madrassas? In that case the strategic value of the terget would be less a consideration than the extent to which it reinforces the perception of provocation.

Hmmm, good point !
That BH is following some USG think tank's logical path could just be coincidence, and, that they seem to often conclude that they were provoked into doing "said" is a little foggy. If they are simply doing a quid pro quo, they've gone a little over the top (but I guess rational thinking is not part of their repertoire).

Yes, BH claimed the reason why "Western" schools are being attacked is because madrassas were attacked by security services (that sounds plausible).

Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture - how does this thing end?

I also see a stalemate. one or 2 thousand people are not turning 80 million Muslims into fanatical terrorists with anyone's help, and they are not overrunning 80 million Christians anywhere. As pathetic as the security services and military are, eventually things are going to change. Johnathan is not some uneducated dictator and will be seeking assistance abroad.

[KingJaja]

I think this a chief reason the Northern elites are backing BH. They are letting them be the muscle and do the dirty work. Once BH agitates enough, the elite, with somewhat cleaner robes can step in and either campaign for an independent north or become major players in some sort of reform. I doubt that BH is savvy or wise enough to become a political player. The elites most likely understand this.

Don't get me wrong the people in the north do have some genuine grievances, but as is often the case, those who have some power (like the northern elite) use the grievances or plight of the greater populous to consolidate and even increase their own power.

They are already doing that. Read this:

Northern governors will engage stakeholders in pressing for a review of the revenue allocation formula to attain some level of equity for the overall development of the country, Niger State Governor Muazu Babangida Aliyu has said.

Aliyu, who is chairman of the Northern Governors' Forum, said the federal revenue allocation formula was heavily lopsided against northern states such that "some states are not doing well while others are doing extremely well."

The governor spoke in Abuja at the inauguration of a 12-member Advisory Council of the Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation.

He said revenues from continental shelf oil which ought to be for the entire country were being treated as coming from littoral states, thereby entitling those states to royalties and derivation.

This is happening against the backdrop of what he called the "grave" situation in the North "where illiteracy, poverty, ignorance and general backwardness are on the rise in the face of unfavourable federation allocation structure in which the northern states are at great disadvantage."

http://allafrica.com/stories/201202240338.html

If you don't understand the political economy of Nigeria, you'll immediately jump to the conclusion that these guys have a point. The truth is a little bit more complicated than that. They have wasted no time to jump on the BH bandwagon to demand more money from the center!

As expected, the South has responded, telling them they are talking nonsense!

LAGOS— Governor Theodore Orji of Abia State joined elders and youths of the Niger Delta yesterday in dismissing demands by northern Governors for the scrapping of the derivation principle in revenue allocation just as it emerged that the restoration of peace to the Niger Delta has led to a daily increase of N34 billion into the federal treasury.

Noting that the Niger Delta region was today getting 100% of the pollution and other incidental damages associated with oil exploitation, the stakeholders from the region said it was unrealistic for the North to look at the benefits to the oil producing region without considering the negatives.

Among those who also rebuffed the demand were elder statesman and second republic Senator, Obi Nosike Ikpo; defunct Biafra warlord, Chief Joseph Achuzia; Leader of the Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People (MOSOP), Ledum Mitee and Presidential Adviser on the Amnesty Programme, Mr. Kingsley Kuku.

Answering questions from journalists in Abuja, Orji urged the leaders of the northern states to look inwards and develop resources in the north, saying that the North has been favoured in the sharing over the years.

http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/03/d...et-more-money/

The North has also gotten an ex-US ambassador and CFR fellow to boot to push their case. Read this:

In addition, the Obama administration should engage in targeted outreach to Nigerian Muslims. To begin, it should treat Muhammadu Buhari, the most credible opposition leader in Nigeria, as it does the leaders of the opposition in other friendly states. He should be publicly received in Washington at an appropriately high level. Despite the costs and risks, the United States should proceed to establish a consulate in Kano, the metropolis and cultural center of the Islamic North, where it can build a stronger relationship with a region that has received too little Western attention in the past.

http://nationalinterest.org/article/...6514?page=show

John Campbell is a very smart man and he crafted a very sophisticated analysis of the situation in Nigeria. He crafted it in such a way as to obscure the fact that he has a Northern bias (he actually has Northern Nigerian paymasters). What he is advocating in this paragraph is essentially that the Obama administration should take sides in religious war in Northern Nigeria and help revitalize Buhari's party (the CPC) which actually isn't the largest party in opposition.

He wants the US to insert itself into the ethno-religious politics of Nigeria. It is extremely unwise to suggest so.

For a more reasoned and balanced critique of leadership in Northern Nigeria, please read this:
http://zainabusman.wordpress.com/201...minal-decline/

[Chowing]

From your link Kingjaja, http://zainabusman.wordpress.com/201...minal-decline/

The most obvious problem is the serious leadership deficit in the North which became magnified before and after the 2011 general elections. There is almost a general consensus that Northerners who were at the helms of affairs in the country for several decades did little to better the life of ordinary people in the region in terms of provision of healthcare, education and other infrastructure, direction of useful investments and creation of economic opportunities for the population. The leaders are seen to have enriched themselves and their cronies while using an adept mixture of religion and ethnicity to keep people subjugated in the shackles of illiteracy, ignorance, poverty, and misery. Few leaders have utilized accumulated wealth towards establishing profitable enterprises that employ people, philanthropic organizations that empower others or other productive ends. Rather accumulated wealth is squandered in consumerist behaviour, in opulence in the midst of absolute and abject poverty. Interesting exposs on the leadership deficit have been written by analysts such as Dr. Hakeem Baba Ahmed and the columnist Adamu Adamu amongst several others.

According to this article the elites may be backing BH, but these elites have little following among the northern populous. Kingjaja, does this ring true to you. Do many northerners see BH as a better alternative to work towards their betterment than both the northern elite and the central government?

While the deficit of transformational leadership is not exclusively a Northern phenomenon, it is more magnified in the North. It is these leaders who are perceived by many to have sold out the north during the 2011 elections hence the rampage of the youths against various emirs, a former speaker of the House of Representatives amongst others. Consequently traditional, religious and political leaders who used to command tremendous respect from people have lost their credibility, and to an extent legitimacy to speak on behalf of the people. Certain enigmatic geniuses have been de-robed of their toga of mystique. The people in turn are plagued by frustration, helplessness and hopelessness in the wake of un-inspiring leadership.

If this author is anywhere near correct, no wonder BH seem to be able to stike, run-and-hind, and blend in with the populous. They feel let down by everyone around them. Even if they do not like the violence, they may see it has their only alternative to be heard, so they see BH as their advocate.

So, if the northern elite do go to the negotiation tables, will the northern poor follow? My guess is that they will follow wherever one makes the best case for hope.

[KingJaja]

Chowing,

These Northern rulers (ruled Nigeria for 38 years) never bothered for the support of Northern masses. They merely proclaimed themselves as leaders of the North and did whatever they wished to do.

Part of the blame lies in the British who largely left a feudal system intact (and in some cases expanded it - Muslim aristocrats were put in charge of non-Muslim peoples). The South was administered much differently.

(You can see parallels in Pakistan where the feudal system was untouched - Benazir Bhutto was a scion of one of the largest land-owning families. Wisely, India did away with the power of the Maharajahs after independence).

The sad truth is that Northern leadership is not really interested in improving educational and quality of life indices in Northern Nigeria - they don't want people challenging the status quo. (It is easier to bribe and rig elections when the population is poor and uninformed).

The appeal of Boko Haram to the poor is that it offers a vehicle to vent long suppressed frustrations on the Northern elite. On the other hand, BH has an appeal to the Northern elite - they can use it to demand for more resources from the centre (which of course will be squandered).

No one in the Northern elite really speaks for the masses and that is the problem.

However, there is nothing really to negotiate. BH's demands are unrealistic. What is sorely needed is competent administration at the local level and the Northern elite seems incapable or unwilling to offer it.

The North is gradually accepting the necessity of greater devolution of powers from the center and is opening up to the need for a conference to discuss the future of the Nigerian state.

Yes, what she wrote is 99 pc correct.

[KingJaja]

Please read this (and read it with a pinch of salt, this is from a Southern paper). Sometimes it is helpful to view Nigeria as a collection of people who have nothing in common, whose only purpose for congregating is to share the proceeds from the sale of crude oil.

Events appear to be moving too fast for Nigeria and they are frightening.With bombings and other first grade violence becoming very routine in the country, it would appear very instructive that leaders of ethnic nationalities and regions are digging in for an epic show of brain and brawn.

At one point or the other, key leaders of the Nigerian federation have had cause to regret the ethnic configuration of the nation and queried its existence ab initio. Chief Obafemi Awolowo described it as a “mere geographical expression” just as Sir Ahmadu Bello said Nigeria is “the mistake of 1914.” Even civil war hero, Brigadier General Benjamin Adekunle regretted fighting for one united Nigeria. In an article published in the 6 July,1996 edition of Weekend Concord, Adekunle declared that he regretted killing Ibos to keep Nigeria one. “Looking back at what has been happening in this country since the days of Babangida, one cannot but be sad. Personally now and for sometime, I feel so ashamed to have killed people to sustain the unity of Nigeria. I feel so sad to have shed blood for the unity of Nigeria.”

A combination of the Yoruba and Niger Delta leaders recently met in Ikenne, Ogun State under the leadership of Chief (Mrs) HID Awolowo and asked for a Sovereign National Conference (SNC) to discuss the nation’s over-ripe problems. They followed it up a few weeks ago with a presentation of the demand to President Goodluck Jonathan in Abuja.Very interestingly, Northern Nigeria, which had always opposed such calls, joined the fray last week with its leaders saying they were ready for the talks. What has informed this sudden confidence of the North in the SNC? If the talks hold as expressed, what are the questions it will answer? Is Nigeria inexorably going to pieces as predicted by certain western figures? Are the current security and political problems ravaging Nigeria a product of some off-shore conspiracy coordinated by powerful nations outside Africa?

http://tribune.com.ng/index.php/comp...he-last-battle

[Dayuhan]

Are the current security and political problems ravaging Nigeria a product of some off-shore conspiracy coordinated by powerful nations outside Africa?

Paranoid fantasy, but many will believe it. Always useful to be able to blame awful conditions on some malevolent outside force.

[KingJaja]

Paranoid fantasy, but many will believe it. Always useful to be able to blame awful conditions on some malevolent outside force.

Not so paranoid when you consider that there is enough circumstantial evidence to show that Shell was complicit in the murder of prominent Niger Delta activists, but paranoid all the same.

The default position for most Western diplomats and academics is to absolve Islam / Muslims of blame. This is usually dismissed to "liberal brain washing" in the States, but in a multi-ethnic, multi-religious society like Nigeria it is seen as the latest evidence that the West favours Northern Muslims over the rest of the nation.

This perception has very deep roots (started when the British created the Nigerian Army almost exclusively from one tribe in the Muslim North about a hundred years ago).

Paranoid, but not completely illogical.