'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[Chowing]

Seems now the rhetoric will change. The Brits lost a lot of cred. for the failed rescue. They will try to ease the damage, at home and internationally, by now saying what some have said for some time that BH does have links to AQIM and other jihadist groups.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8280RV20120309

Security officials say Boko Haram has received training, weapons and bomb-making technology from al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb, which operates in neighboring Niger and Chad. The Nigerian militant group wants to impose Islamic Sharia law in a country split between Christians and Muslims.

The hostages were shown in a short video that emerged in August saying they were being held by al Qaeda.

It seems that the Brits delayed a couple of days after they had information as to where the hostages were being held. They should have known, it seems to me, that the news that they had captured two BH's top people that the word would spread to the compound.

The SSS source said Nigerian forces arrested two of the conspirators on Tuesday, including Abu Mohammed, near Sokoto, on the basis of a Nigerian intelligence tipoff. After interrogation the two led them to the compound.

The Nigerian and British forces mounted a joint raid two days later. The source said three kidnappers were taken alive from inside the house and the others were killed.

With the story you just reported Kingjaja, it seems that BH is not slowing down with the Bristish forces showing up.

[Chowing]

And it is not just Boko Haram which benefits from the global fear of terrorism. My friend went on to point out that a quarter of Nigeria's budget of almost $30 billion this year will be spent on the military and security services. The service chiefs will now have to find - or create something - to justify that and keep it flowing.

Many of the northern highways are studded with police road blocks which have an excuse and official blessing to engage in a bit of highway robbery. It is very difficult to get through any Nigerian roadblock without 'dashing' - paying - the police. But the police are small beer compared to the army. This is the biggest chance the generals have had to 'chop' since military rule ended in 1999. Unless they have changed completely, the senior officers will not allow the justification for this level of spending to diminish or die. They now have a major stake in Nigeria's 'war on terror'.

This is also the case for northern Nigerian politicians who have been funding and possibly even directing Boko Haram. They saw how the politicians of the Niger Delta manipulated the gangs which were attacking oil installations and demanding that oil companies did more for the local communities. The end result was that political power shifted to the Delta with a Delta man as president. If the Delta could do that, so could the north, which has finally lost political power in Nigeria after almost 50 years.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201203091186.html

The article is an "Analysis" piece written by Richard Dowden, the Directory of the Royal African Society.

[Stan]

http://allafrica.com/stories/201203091186.html

The article is an "Analysis" piece written by Richard Dowden, the Directory of the Royal African Society.

I think his opening para says it all. The rest is a bit of repetitive journalism from wire feeds.

Nothing in Nigeria is what it seems. Beneath a confusing, disorderly surface lie networks of association and obligation of which outsiders, and sometimes insiders, are unaware. Money is chopped (stolen), people paid off, budgets looted and shared. Power, political and financial, is never transparent. In other nation states a citizen's obligations to the state or employer, trump friendship or family connections. In Nigeria the state and institutions often rank far lower than personal affiliations. Outsiders are often shocked at the way public institutions are looted and distributed to buy personal loyalty or simply given to family and friends. The state is not a revered institution serving all citizens. It is a treasure house of power and money to be captured and looted.

[KingJaja]

I pointed out everything he (Richard Dowden) wrote over the past few months. I don't, however have any high sounding titles and I am not considered "an expert" on Nigeria (a topic I have intimate knowledge of and interest in).

Why do people quote Westerners with only a passing knowledge of the subject matter? There are several million university graduates from Nigeria and most of them can present a clearer picture of what is going on down there.

[KingJaja]

This is what the crime scene looks like barely 24 hours after the botched bid. We've got serious problems here.

Are to assume that a lot of the forensic evidence will be lost.

http://saharareporters.com/photo/pho...led-rescue-bid

[Chowing]

I pointed out everything he (Richard Dowden) wrote over the past few months. I don't, however have any high sounding titles and I am not considered "an expert" on Nigeria (a topic I have intimate knowledge of and interest in).

Why do people quote Westerners with only a passing knowledge of the subject matter? There are several million university graduates from Nigeria and most of them can present a clearer picture of what is going on down there.

Hey, I will quote you anyday, Kingjaja. Your insights are very valuable here, and would be valuable to any venue where Nigerian affairs are discussed. Still waiting for the day you will launch your campaign for office.

[davidbfpo]

Leaving aside the failed rescue attempt and the diplomatic tiff with Italy, today's coverage here has stated the British SBS tried to storm the house after a decision to go ahead by the UK PM:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17322143 .

What has struck me as odd is the absence of any stated role for the government of Nigeria.

The BBC report by a local reporter states the gunfire went on for hours, you will have to listen to the report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17311568

I fully accept the criticism that KingJaJa has illustrated. One hopes this Anglo-Nigerian cooperation will be bilaterally examined and lessons learnt. Perhaps the UK will then - openly - offer assistance.

Yes, the footage of the house indicates the premises were not secured after the shooting stopped and anyone could wander around. This disregard for basic police procedures and loss of forensic opportunities is not a good sign; not that it does not happen elsewhere, for example Ms Bhutto's murder scene was hosed down.

[Chowing]

The BBC report by a local reporter states the gunfire went on for hours, you will have to listen to the report:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-17311568

I fully accept the criticism that KingJaJa has illustrated. One hopes this Anglo-Nigerian cooperation will be bilaterally examined and lessons learnt. Perhaps the UK will then - openly - offer assistance.

Yes, the footage of the house indicates the premises were not secured after the shooting stopped and anyone could wander around. This disregard for basic police procedures and loss of forensic opportunities is not a good sign; not that it does not happen elsewhere, for example Ms Bhutto's murder scene was hosed down.

It seems the operation was botched in many ways. Hours of gunfire really surprises me. According to first reports, the security forces, including the British had been informed where the hostages were being held two days before the operation took place. Seems that would be enough time to come up with a plan that would get them into the compound much quicker. The resistance inside must have been far more than they expected.

The crime scene, it seems to me, would have been of great interest to the British as well. Why didn't they help secure it.

I am confident that there are many differences between the US raid in Pakistan that killed Bin Laden. The target was "greater" and they did not have the cooperation of the local government. Sometimes "cooperation" can work against coming up with and carrying out a highly sophisticated plan. Yet, as this operation is picked apart, the Brits will not look good on many levels.

BH has had a great gain from this. The hostages were not freed. They held off the Brits and Nigerian security forces for "hours." Whether the hostages were taken by core BH loyalists or just a splinter, the whole BH movement will have gained considerable fear from the populous and generated some pride and respect from loyalists. Can't help but think this will help their recruitment and funding.

[Stan]

Seems now the rhetoric will change. The Brits lost a lot of cred. for the failed rescue. They will try to ease the damage, at home and internationally, by now saying what some have said for some time that BH does have links to AQIM and other jihadist groups.

The failed op will probably be blamed on the Nigerian team (incapable, lack of intel, etc.) and swept under the rug.

I was unaware of BH claiming they kidnapped the engineers nearly a year ago. I believe the credit simply goes to "a militant group". Kidnapping has been going on for years in that region. Considering how Jaja feels about the competence of the Nigerian police and security services, I am unlikely to believe something an "SSS source" unanimously decides to leak to the press . I doubt the rhetoric will change, but the kidnapper's strategy will indeed change for the worst.

With the story you just reported Kingjaja, it seems that BH is not slowing down with the Bristish forces showing up.

That's a good point, Chowing ! Why would BH slow down just because the Brits came in to rescue two engineers from "a militant group or splinter"? The renewed attack on a police station just tells me the Nigerian police have gone laxed thinking they are invincible following a slow period of activity. This is so typical that even they should have known not to let their guard down. A minor victory, but they have yet to win the war.

[Dayuhan]

Seems now the rhetoric will change. The Brits lost a lot of cred. for the failed rescue. They will try to ease the damage, at home and internationally, by now saying what some have said for some time that BH does have links to AQIM and other jihadist groups.

I don't think anyone's denied that there are "links". The question is the nature and the extent. Possibly due to local experience, I'm suspicious of the word "link" in the AQ context, and I wouldn't like to see BH reflexively referred to as "AQ-linked", just as I wouldn't like to see the US put BH on the terrorist list. Either would push a fundamentally domestic conflict toward internationalization, and either would be perceived as - and could actually become - a prelude to foreign intervention.

With the story you just reported Kingjaja, it seems that BH is not slowing down with the Bristish forces showing up.

Why would BH slow down? The Brits weren't there to fight BH in general, they were there for one mission. They're probably out of the country already. I wouldn't expect any impact at all on BH operations.