...Militant groups in the Niger Delta are proliferating and mutating rapidly. Few have expressed goals beyond extorting lucrative payments from industry and government. Others are working on behalf of local politicians with electoral ambitions. Several groups appear at least loosely linked with MEND, the most cohesive and politically astute militant group to emerge so far. MEND’s spokesman has both conceded giving tacit approval to groups that carry out sabotage and kidnappings for ransom and distanced his organisations from such activities. He insists his organisation is no longer interested in carrying out the kind of small-scale attacks that have been a staple of the Niger Delta for years, and is instead preparing to deliver a single, crushing blow to the region’s oil industry unless the government agrees to sweeping economic and political reforms long sought by activists.
Regardless of whether MEND can or will deliver on such threats, few would dispute that the security situation is deteriorating, with consequences for the oil industry. Militants recognise that they do not have to capture ground or even win major battles to accomplish their goals. They also realise that Nigeria’s military and police are insufficiently trained, unmotivated and illequipped to handle a full-fledged insurgency in the Delta’s unforgiving terrain of swamps and creeks. Shutting down Nigeria’s oil production would hurt the federal government more than any other party to the crisis and create what MEND hopes would be an environment for insurgency to flourish. President Obasanjo and his administration must urgently address the region’s grievances before the security situation further degenerates...
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