'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[KingJaja]

All serious analysts of Nigeria are advised to carefully consider these two stories. They are likely to have an impact on the future of Nigeria, and Nigeria will have to grapple with the tensions between North and South for the next twenty years.

Where will this end? Most probably a dissolution of the Nigerian state. Our prayer is that it is peaceful - but you were forewarned.

THE furore generated by some members of the Northern Governors’ Forum on the need to review the revenue allocation formula and onshore-offshore dichotomy may have moved from the political to the intellectual realm, and a hardening of positions.

Indeed, the new song is that the country must return to the negotiation table to define its corporate existence along the line of justice, equity and fairness in the allocation of resources to the federating units.

While the North clamours for more revenue to its region through a revisit of the revenue allocation formula and divestment of the offshore resources from the allocation to the littoral states of the Niger Delta, the latter zone wants total control of its oil resources.

It wants this done through an upward review of derivation from the current 13 per cent to 50 per cent.

Dr. Junaid Mohammed, physician and politician, described as an aberration the onshore/offshore dichotomy law, which awards more revenue to states in the oil-rich Niger Delta far ahead of states in the North.

Which is why he wants the matter revisited, insisting it had never been settled.

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index...nal&Itemid=559

NORTHERN leaders, Sunday, spurned Yoruba leaders' agitation for regional autonomy and a return to the parliamentary system of government, describing the clamour as a recipe for Nigeria's disintegration.

Yoruba elders under the banner of Yoruba National Assembly, YNA, had after a meeting in Ibadan last Thursday, canvassed a return to the parliamentary system of government and granting of regional autonomy to the South-West.

They also called for removal of the immunity clause for criminal offences; a new Nigeria consisting of a federal government and six regional governments (based on the current six geo-political zones) operating federal and regional constitutions, respectively; and adoption of Regional and State Police force structure among others.

But responding to the development, some prominent northern leaders, who spoke exclusively to Vanguard, kicked against YNA's call, saying that the agitation would plunge the nation into incalculable crises and hasten her break-up.

However, Secretary-General of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Chief Nduka Eya, said the demands of the Yoruba leaders were in tandem with the position of Ndigbo, which had been sent to the National Assembly for inclusion in the on-going constitution amendment exercise.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201209030129.html

[KingJaja]

Now Boko Haram is attacking Telecom infrastructure in Northern Nigeria.

The economic impact on this part of Nigeria needs to be carefully considered.

Gunmen suspected to be Boko Haram members killed 16 people in an attack in Yobe State on Thursday morning.

The assailants, who used Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and petrol-bombs during the attack, set ablaze the service-base masts of Airtel, Glo and Etisalat in Potiskum and Damaturu .

This is coming barely 24 hours after torching 15 masts of four Global System of Mobile Communication (GSM) firms in Borno state.

Among the 16 people killed was the Yobe state government protocol officer, Mallam Adamu.

Adamu was attacked and killed while returning from his duty post at the Government House, Damaturu.

Not less than 24 towers have been attacked, likely causing damage worth millions of dollars, says an association of mobile phone companies.

Army spokesperson Sagir Musa put the blame on radical Islamist group known as Boko Haram. Months ago the group threatened to target phone companies for collaborating with authorities.

According to experts, a tower costs about 450,000 US dollars and with antennas, generators and transmission equipment, the cost of a single tower can exceed one million US dollars

[Bill Moore]

Frankly I'm surprised that they haven't been systematically targeting economic infrastructure for sometime now. It seems many of the Islamist movements globally prefer to focus on symbolic targets, or targets that are intended to create a conflict between different ethnic groups, than targets that are directly associated with the enemy's economy and military capabilities. Maybe they have been in this case, I'm just not seeing it in the media.

[KingJaja]

Bill,

It depends on what their aims are. There isn't very much by the way of economic activity in Northern Nigeria and whatever economic activity occurred in the past has been severely stunted by their activities.

So they have nothing to prove by attacking other economic targets.

They are attacking telecom masts because they suspect the govt is using telecom infrastructure to track them.

[Dayuhan]

Boko Haram offers negotiations, but under terms I can't imagine any sovereign government accepting...

Boko Haram gives terms for talks with government

AFTER about three years of keeping the country on the brink of disintegration owing to the violence it regularly inflicted on it, Boko Haram may have decided to dialogue with the Federal Government.

But the group wants the dialogue to hold on its terms. It says the talks should take place in Saudi Arabia, it should be paid compensation and former Borno State Governor Ali Modu Sheriff who was arrested by the police in connection with the activities of the group, and its members being held should be released...

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index...d=559#comments

[davidbfpo]

Events elsewhere may have distracted SWC, notably Mali, but Nigeria continues to make its own path. A somewhat confusing path too at times, well illustrated by this commentary 'Analyzing Foreign Influence and Jihadi Networks in Nigeria':http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2013/0...ks-in-nigeria/

Which ends with:

After all, different groups, even splinters that maintain ties, still have different motivations and make different cost/benefit calculations about operations based on different factors. Which ultimately goes to show that, counter to what some might think, not all Muslims think and react the same way to complex and rapidly evolving events. Not even Nigerian jihadis.

Then there is the surprise:

A purported commander of Nigerian Islamist sect Boko Haram declared a unilateral ceasefire on Monday...

Link:http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...90R0V020130128 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16761670

[KingJaja]

The causality figures are actually closer to hundred.

At least 41 people died in a suicide car bomb that struck a bus station in a Christian neighborhood in Kano, northern Nigeria's busiest commercial center, in the most deadly attack in nine months that is blamed on Islamic extremists, an official said Tuesday.

The blast increased tensions in this divided West African nation.

At least 44 others were injured in the attack that hit the city of Kano Monday evening, a rescue official who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press. Kano state police said Tuesday that two men rammed an explosive-laden blue VW Golf into a full passenger bus in a mainly Christian enclave in the predominantly Muslim commercial center.

By striking at about 5 p.m. Monday, the bombers seemed to have targeted passengers preparing for the 15-hour overnight road trip to the megacity of Lagos in Nigeria's south, loved ones bidding them farewell and vendors selling drinks and snacks. The blast triggered panic and pandemonium in a city that has seen similar violence in the past.

Kano police chief Musa Daura had said in a statement that at least 22 people had died, but the rescue official said there were 41 deaths at least. He said there were 21 bodies were at Murtala Muhammad Specialist Hospital and 20 more at Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, said rescue officials. They are also treating 41 and 3 injured respectively. Police has downplayed figures in the past to avoid reprisals.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...2#.UUxC-BfFXko

This sort of thing has been going on for too long, if things continue at this rate, it's no longer a question of if, but when Nigeria implodes.