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Thread: 'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

  1. #721
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Its also an engineering principle. A structure is only as strong as its weakest member.

    Having said that, nations are not armies or machinery.
    I knew there was something about you - we are both mechanical engineers

    Having spent a lot of time in both Bangui and Yaounde I can say they are doing quite well despite their large and inhospitable neighbors and lack of coast line. But, if they are dependent on say the DRC getting up and running with a relatively miniscule coastline, then, the CAR is in a lot of trouble.

    I won't even begin to compare the politically-driven relationships with the US, Mexico and Canada to that of the CAR. There's no remote comparison and the economic "powers to be" in the West can't even begin to fathom what most Africans deal with.
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    Here is an article I just came across from Feb. 21st, this year.
    Could 2012 be Nigeria’s year of real reform? http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/c...-reform/14768/
    There are many reasons to be negative about Nigeria’s business environment. Issues such religious conflict, corruption, an inconsistent regulatory environment and poor infrastructure could push any investor to rather look at opportunities in other African countries.
    Charles Robertson

    Charles Robertson

    Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital is, however, more upbeat about Nigeria’s future. In a recent note to investors, Robertson posed the question whether 2012 could be the start of a radical transformation for Nigeria? “Is this the year when investors should be taking long-term bullish positions in the market? It is beginning to look to us like the answer to both these questions is yes.”

    He highlighted three key reform areas for Nigeria: the fuel subsidy, the electricity sector and oil production. “Progress in any one of these areas would justify a more positive approach to the market – while progress on all three would be extremely positive. To our surprise, the latter is happening.”
    The tree areas he feels are pointing to a turn around in Nigeria's economy are the change in the fuel subsidy, the abolishment of the electricity Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), and new Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB).

    He believes all three of these will help the majority of Nigerians and are signs that outsiders ought to invest for the long term beginning now.

    I really find it hard to believe that these three factors will favorably effect the north or even the middle belt for that matter. The Delta region could gain from the petroleum sector reform, but that is assuming that the wealth we be shared with or trickle down to the majority of the populous. That will take political reform as well as a new worldview by the elite.

    How all of this will effect the unrest brought on by BH, I am not sure either. If the south and middle belt become better off and the north remains in a hurt, BH will have increased issues to use in recruitment and motivation.

    Concerning the present discussion about outside involvement, this author is not calling for aid nor military intervention. He is stating that now is the time for investors to get involved. Out of the three (foreign aid, military intervention, and investment), investment may bring more sustainable development, yet I really wonder if very many investors see Nigeria as a opportunity right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stan View Post
    I knew there was something about you - we are both mechanical engineers

    Having spent a lot of time in both Bangui and Yaounde I can say they are doing quite well despite their large and inhospitable neighbors and lack of coast line. But, if they are dependent on say the DRC getting up and running with a relatively miniscule coastline, then, the CAR is in a lot of trouble.

    I won't even begin to compare the politically-driven relationships with the US, Mexico and Canada to that of the CAR. There's no remote comparison and the economic "powers to be" in the West can't even begin to fathom what most Africans deal with.
    I actually trained as an Electronic/Telecommunications Engineer (BS, MS). However, I had to do the obligatory "strength of materials", "thermodynamics" and "fluid mechanics". I actually enjoyed thermo and strength of materials, fluid not so much.

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    Default For Stan & KingJaja

    Godiva was a Lady,
    Who through Coventry did ride;
    A showing all the villagers
    Her pink and pearly hide.

    The most observant fellow
    Was an engineer, of course;
    He was the only one who noticed,
    That Godiva rode a horse.

    Regards

    Mike

    PS Tequila: Naji's The Management of Savagery is something of the Julia Child's here ?
    Last edited by jmm99; 02-28-2012 at 07:40 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    Out of the three (foreign aid, military intervention, and investment), investment may bring more sustainable development, yet I really wonder if very many investors see Nigeria as a opportunity right now.
    According to this article, we've upped the anti to invest in Nigeria's electrical power.

    I really love this (kind of like a fork in the Chinese ribcage - verbally)

    Speaking on the capacity of investment flowing from the United States to compete with investments from other global investors such as China, India and the European Union, Felton stressed that the US offered high value products, stating that this was one of its competitive edge.
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  6. #726
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jmm99 View Post
    Godiva was a Lady,
    Who through Coventry did ride;
    A showing all the villagers
    Her pink and pearly hide.

    The most observant fellow
    Was an engineer, of course;
    He was the only one who noticed,
    That Godiva rode a horse.

    Regards

    Mike

    PS Tequila: Naji's The Management of Savagery is something of the Julia Child's here ?
    Thanks Mike !
    The problem with Naji's theory is he never went south of Egypt and experienced what we used to call WAWA (West Africa Wins Again)
    Even the Egyptians threw in the towel (along with the West and Israelis) when it came to comprehending the Zairois.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    Here is an article I just came across from Feb. 21st, this year.
    Could 2012 be Nigeria’s year of real reform? http://www.howwemadeitinafrica.com/c...-reform/14768/

    The tree areas he feels are pointing to a turn around in Nigeria's economy are the change in the fuel subsidy, the abolishment of the electricity Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), and new Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB).

    He believes all three of these will help the majority of Nigerians and are signs that outsiders ought to invest for the long term beginning now.

    I really find it hard to believe that these three factors will favorably effect the north or even the middle belt for that matter. The Delta region could gain from the petroleum sector reform, but that is assuming that the wealth we be shared with or trickle down to the majority of the populous. That will take political reform as well as a new worldview by the elite.

    How all of this will effect the unrest brought on by BH, I am not sure either. If the south and middle belt become better off and the north remains in a hurt, BH will have increased issues to use in recruitment and motivation.

    Concerning the present discussion about outside involvement, this author is not calling for aid nor military intervention. He is stating that now is the time for investors to get involved. Out of the three (foreign aid, military intervention, and investment), investment may bring more sustainable development, yet I really wonder if very many investors see Nigeria as a opportunity right now.
    Let's look at map showing female literacy levels in Nigeria.



    The statistics for Northern Nigeria are appalling and as we all know, female literacy levels are an indicator of male literacy levels and the educational level of the next generation. If you were an industrialist or an investor, you'll be foolish not to make use of a large pool of educated workers in the South and Middle Belt and the proximity of these zones to the largest markets in Nigeria also helps.

    Investors see Nigeria as an opportunity, the problem is that most don't see many opportunities in Northern Nigeria. I was talking to the marketing manager of the largest cement company in Nigeria, he told me that 70 percent of their business is done in the South of Nigeria, while 30 percent is done in the North.

    Northern Nigeria is at least a 30 year project and it will require an intense amount of money and investment. But there are issues: (a) there isn't much sympathy for the North in the South and (b) where is the money going to come from?

    Northern Nigerians are moving down to seek economic opportunities in the South as I speak. I expect this trend to accelerate in the medium term. The North has immense agricultural potential, but this can only be properly harnessed when the security situation improves.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    I actually trained as an Electronic/Telecommunications Engineer (BS, MS). However, I had to do the obligatory "strength of materials", "thermodynamics" and "fluid mechanics". I actually enjoyed thermo and strength of materials, fluid not so much.
    Nobody liked the fluid mechanics portions, but, when applied to or coupled with destruction principles it's a blast. The venerable water canon will soon change your mind on boring subjects
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    According to this article, we've upped the anti to invest in Nigeria's electrical power.

    I really love this (kind of like a fork in the Chinese ribcage - verbally)
    Lol! This is Nigeria were are talking about. In case you don't know $15 billion went down the drain last decade - it was supposed to have been invested in power infrastructure. We didn't see any evidence of anywhere near that amount of money being spent.

    On a more serious note, if you can pay bigger bribes than the Chinese, you are in business.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    It is not that easy. Most of the nation's wealth is near the coast, far away from the Muslim heartland. There is a strong Muslim merchant and political elite who understand that (a) a future Muslims only state in Northern Nigeria will look a lot like the Republic of Niger and that (b) it will be extremely difficult for Al Qaeda (or whatever it is called) to unseat the central government.

    Now the central government dispenses patronage and if one takes up arms against the central government as fails in the attempt, then your access to the lucrative patronage networks is automatically terminated.

    And the Southern elite would only rub their chubby hands with glee.

    So this isn't Iraq and it is difficult to see a situation in which the local emirs are cowered into acceding to the demands of BH like the Iraqi Sunni tribal chiefs who were intimidated into supporting AQ.

    There are also eighty million Christians here.
    Hey, no one said that these guys are realistic. All that AQI's campaign ended up doing in the long run was getting them marginalized and the Sunni community in middle Iraq thoroughly shattered or expelled to Jordan and Syria. Remember, they think God is on their side.

    BH has been targeting local emirs and trying to intimidate others. See Kano.

    Last July the Nigerian news media reported on a letter of warning from the group to Kano’s leaders, including the emir, the traditional ruler of this ancient aristocratic city: “All those arrested should be released immediately, otherwise, I swear with Almighty Allah, we may be forced to deploy our men to Kano,” the letter said.

    Six months later, on Jan. 20, the group struck. The planning had gone on under the noses of the authorities. “What happened in Kano was something which the security agencies had foreseen,” said Dr. Bashir Aliyu, a prominent imam in Kano.

    There were up to five suicide bombers that day, at least 20 explosions, assaults on what were thought to be well-guarded state and regional police headquarters, on the State Security Service, an immigration office and the residence of a high police official. Gunmen entered a police barracks and opened fire, killing dozens.
    I'm not sure I agree with you either. When and where did we determine that BH wants what the AQI wanted ? BH's demands in the beginning were quite feeble and the whole thing turned dirty over police brutality when a motorcyclist refused to wear a helmet and was summarily shot !!!
    Well, I don't think they'll be issuing a communique along those lines, but radicalizing your base, destroying established, moderate leaders, and 'heightening the contradictions' has been in the revolutionary playbook even before Lenin and Mao. AQI didn't stumble across anything new.

    BH has moved on from then, and the stumbling response by the Nigerian security forces only feeds recruitment.
    Last edited by tequila; 02-28-2012 at 09:58 PM.

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    BH has been targeting local emirs and trying to intimidate others. See Kano.
    This is just a letter of warning. BH is not stupid enough to attempt to harm an emir. Kano has had an Islamic ruler for close to 1,000 years and there are some things you just don't tamper with, even if you think God is on your side.

    Hey, no one said that these guys are realistic. All that AQI's campaign ended up doing in the long run was getting them marginalized and the Sunni community in middle Iraq thoroughly shattered or expelled to Jordan and Syria. Remember, they think God is on their side.

    BH has been targeting local emirs and trying to intimidate others. See Kano.
    All the better for Southerners and the Southern elite. They've never liked Muslims in the far North, anyway.

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    Default Stan, Lagrange & Others

    Naji's text is so jargonized in "AQese" that it is easy to overlook its more generalized concepts.

    My take: The USG seems hampered by not making counter-use of "AQ ideas" in the situations where they can be applied by the US (or by a US client or co-belligerent). In fact, the USG has been reactive to and rejective of "subversive" methodologies during and after the Cold War. Thus, if "AQ" believes it can be successful in a situation of "savage chaos", the kneejerk USG reaction is to demand or attempt to create a situation of "civilized stability" (a "Westphalian-Weberian state").

    The first generalized Najism deals with the partial or complete collapse of "Westphalian-Weberian states" [emphasis added in quotes below]:

    p.26 pdf

    First Topic: Definition of “the management of savagery” and an overview of its historical precedents

    We said above that if one contemplates the previous centuries, even until the middle of the twentieth century, one finds that when the large states or empires fell – whether they were Islamic or non-Islamic – and a state did not come into being which was equal in power or comparable to the previous state in its ability to control the lands and regions of that state which collapsed, the regions and sectors of this state became, according to human nature, subservient to what is called “administrations of savagery.” Therefore, the management of savagery is defined very succinctly as the management of savage chaos!!
    "Savage chaos" has only resulted where "a state did not come into being which was equal in power or comparable to the previous state in its ability to control the lands and regions of that state which collapsed." The USG "solution" has been to support or try to create a successor state.

    Moving back to Naji's earlier pages, we find a longer discussion applicable to post-colonial "Westphalian-Weberian" states, marked by civil-military merger and also delineated by the artificiality of colonial boundaries.

    pp.12-13 pdf

    Contemplating the previous centuries, even until the middle of the twentieth century, one finds that when the large states or empires collapsed – and even small states, whether they were Islamic or non-Islamic – and a state did not come into being that was comparable in power and equivalent to the previous state with regard to control over the lands and regions of that state which had collapsed, the regions and sectors of this state changed, through human nature, on account of submission to what is called the administrations of savagery.

    When the caliphal state fell, some of this savagery appeared in some of the regions. However, the situation stabilized soon after that on account of (the order) the Sikes-Picot treaty established. Thereupon, the division of the caliphal state and the withdrawal of the colonial states was such that the caliphal state was divided into (large) states and small states, ruled by military governments or civil governments supported by military forces. The ability of these governments to continue administering these states was consonant with the strength of their connection with these military forces and the ability of these forces to protect the form of the state, whether through the power which these forces derived from their police or army, or through the external power which supported them.

    Here we will not deal with how these states were maintained or how these governments exercised control. Regardless of whether we believe that they obtained control by virtue of their victory over the governments of colonialsm, or by virtue of working secretly with colonial rule and being assigned its place when it withdrew, or a mixture of the two, these states, in short, fell into the hands of these governments because of one or both of these reasons.
    Naji's basic proposition in his 268 page monograph is that these post-colonial states will fail (in whole or in part) with resultant areas of savage chaos. "His Islamists" can be the vanguard in causing those state failures, or the failures can be caused (in whole or in part) by non-affiliated groups. Not matter how a state arrives at "savage chaos", it can be managed by a group that knows the peculiar (local) conditions of "savage chaos" and takes advantage of those conditions. Those conditions and what is "managed" are quite basic.

    pp.26-27 pdf

    As for a detailed definition, it differs according to the goals and nature of the individuals in the administration. If we picture its initial form, we find that it consists of the management of peoples’ needs with regard to the provision of food and medical treatment, preservation of security and justice among the people who live in the regions of savagery, securing the borders by means of groups that deter anyone who tries to assault the regions of savagery, as well as setting up defensive fortifications.

    (The stage of) managing the people’s needs with regard to food and medical treatment may advance to (the stage of) being responsible for offering services like education and so forth. And the preservation of security and securing the borders may advance to working to expand the region of savagery.

    Why do we call it “management of savagery” or “management of savage chaos” and not “management of chaos”? That is because it is not the management of a commercial company, or of an institution suffering from chaos, or of a group of neighbors in a district or residential region, or even of a peaceful society suffering from chaos. Rather, it is more nebulous than chaos, in view of its corresponding historical precedents and the modern world and in light of wealth, greed, various forces, and human nature, and its form which we will discuss in this study. Before its submission to the administration, the region of savagery will be in a situation resembling the situation of Afghanistan before the control of the Taliban, a region submitting to the law of the jungle in its primitive form, whose good people and even the wise among the evildoers yearn for someone to manage this savagery. They even accept any organization, regardless of whether it is made up of good or evil people. However, if the evil people manage this savagery, it is possible that this region will become even more barbarous!
    Of course, if the region becomes even more "savagely chaotic" because of "evil people", it simply gives the "good people" (who "know savage chaotics") another chance - and another chance, etc. It helps to have an unshakeable ideology here.

    Besides the "Management of Savage Chaos" (a better title than the "Management of Savagery"), one might think in terms of the "Management of Relative Insecurity" as a parallel term.

    I'd be curious what MAL thinks about my take on this more generalized interpretation of Naji.

    If this generalization has validity, then those in a region of a "country" headed toward "savage chaos" might consider something less than the "ideal Westphalian-Weberian state". This "lesser" goal might be a logical and more beneficial condition to a majority in that region.

    I'm not remotely suggesting that the USG get involved in that process in Nigeria or any other part of Africa.

    Regards

    Mike
    Last edited by jmm99; 02-29-2012 at 02:21 AM.

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    Default Gunmen sack four Maiduguri schools

    Now Boko Haram is destroying schools in Northern Nigeria. COIN experts, what does this point to?

    Gunmen yesterday detonated a powerful explosive at a primary school in Maiduguri, causing a fire that razed classrooms and the headmaster’s office.

    The dawn attack on Gomari Costain Primary School was the fourth such raid suspected to be launched by Boko Haram over the past week, forcing four primary schools in the city to shut down.
    The three other primary schools earlier burnt and shut down were those in Kulagumna, Budum and Abbaganaram.

    At least 5,000 school children have been forced to stay at home because of the incidents, according to estimates by teachers in the affected schools.

    Each of the four attacks was staged at night when the schools were closed, and so no pupil or teacher was killed.

    In yesterday’s attack at Gomari, resident Sani Salisu said he heard a “deafening and frightening sound” around 5.45am, shortly after the morning Muslim prayers.

    “There is dusk-to-dawn curfew in Maiduguri and therefore must of us did not go to the mosque for the morning prayers. The sound of the blast was followed by gunshots. It was in the morning that we realized that the blast was at the primary school,” Salisu said.

    The New Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reported that some teachers of the school said a group of persons, mainly teenagers, drove away the security guard before setting the school ablaze.

    One of the teachers, who lives near the school premises, said, “We heard a loud noise in the school at night and we thought it was a minor thing but when we reported for duty in the morning we discovered that fire had burnt the school. When we asked the security guard on duty he told us what happened.”

    Another resident who did not want his name in print said he saw the dead body of an unidentified man around 7am yesterday near the blast scene.

    “The copse was lying on ground about 200 metres away from the scene of the blast. I also saw another man with gunshot injuries being taken away,” he said.

    Spokesman for the Borno State police command Samuel Tizhe confirmed that there was an attack at a primary school in the early hours of yesterday.

    “We are, however, investigating circumstances that prompted the attacks on primary schools. Most of the schools affected by the assault were renovated recently,” he said.

    Boko Haram, whose name means ‘Western education is prohibited’, has targeted mainly security formations since they launched their campaign of violence nearly two years ago.

    In the attack on Kulagumna Primary School 10 days ago, two blocks of classrooms and the headmaster’s office were destroyed.

    At Abbaganaram school, 20 classes, five offices and some stores where destroyed, while at Budum, four classrooms and a store filled with books and instructional materials were destroyed.

    The new trend of attacks on primary schools has forced many parents to withdraw their children and wards from schools for fear of their safety, teacher Fanta Kaka Modu told Daily Trust.

    “For now, at least 5,000 pupils in the four primary schools that have been burnt down must remain at home,” she said.

    But officials of the State Universal Primary Education Board (SUBEB) are yet to give details of the impact of the attacks.

    No one claimed responsibility for yesterday’s strike, but Boko Haram said they executed the earlier attack on the three primary schools.

    In a teleconference with journalists in Maiduguri on Sunday, Boko Haram spokesman Abul Qaqa said the sect attacked the three schools because security men had been raiding Islamic schools in Maiduguri recently.

    “We attacked the schools because security operatives are going to Islamiyya schools and picking teachers. We are attacking the public schools at night because we don’t want to kill innocent pupils. Unless (Islamic schools) teachers are allowed to be, we would be compelled to continue attacking schools,” Qaqa said.
    http://dailytrust.com.ng/index.php?o...ories&Itemid=8

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    Default US Supreme Court tackles Shell on human rights abuses

    Taking a detour to the Niger Delta.

    FYI - there is a case before the US Supreme Court about Shell's complicity in the murder of Ken Saro-Wiwa. Now there is significant evidence to back the claim that Shell gave tacit support to the Abacha administration to kill Saro-Wiwa.

    WASHINGTON – (AFP) – The US Supreme Court heard arguments Tuesday in a lawsuit accusing Royal Dutch Shell of human rights abuses, a case that could make corporations liable for acts of torture or genocide overseas.

    The plaintiffs — relatives of seven Nigerians killed by the country’s former military regime — sued the Anglo-Dutch energy giant and other firms for apparently enlisting the government to suppress resistance to oil exploration in the Niger Delta in the 1990s.

    The case will test the potential liability of corporations — including multinationals with a US presence — under the Alien Tort Statute, a US law dating back to 1789 which scholars say was meant to assure foreign governments that the United States would help prevent breaches of international law.

    “The international human rights norms that are at the basis of this case for the plaintiffs — crimes against humanity, torture, prolonged arbitrary detention, extrajudicial executions — all of those human rights norms are defined by actions,” plaintiffs’ lawyer Paul Hoffman told the court Tuesday.

    “They’re not defined by whether the perpetrator is a human being or a corporation or another kind of entity,” he said.

    Kathleen Sullivan, representing Shell, countered that all major international treaties refer to “individual liability” rather than corporate responsibility.
    http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/02/u...rights-abuses/

    That unfortunate event occurred at the same time that John Major and Bill Clinton were making the right-sounding noises about "tyranny in Nigeria". The details of the case against Shell have had an effect of deepening the already deep mistrust of the British in Southern Nigeria.

    I doubt that Shell would have done what it did without cover from the Brits and Americans.

    As we say in my native language; lies are best told in the English language.

    Interestingly, a British / Dutch firm is being tried in a US court and the ruling of the Supreme Court will also have an effect on the perception of the US in Nigeria. Looking at the composition of the court, I strongly suspect that Roberts and his fellow conservatives will rule in favour of Shell.

    Let us remember the series of events the led to the Niger Delta insurrection. One needs to recall the formation of an environmental rights group by Saro-Wiwa, the judicial murder of Saro-Wiwa, the massive oil explosion that almost leveled the town of Jesse in 1999 and electoral politics and thuggery in the delta.

    In retrospect, what might have seemed to be a wise decision by Shell and the Abacha administration ended up being a disaster. As recently as 1993, the problems of Niger Delta militancy could have been nipped in the bud, but no one in the Nigerian government or the Oil and Gas Industry was far-sighted enough to see that.

    ** After all we've been through with Shell, ChevronTexaco and ExxonMobil - all "the Chinese are monsters talk" doesn't faze us. It is difficult to believe that even the worst Chinese firm would behave as badly as Shell did in the Niger Delta.

    This is what the Niger Delta looks like after fifty years of oil exploration by Western oil majors.



    Before you tell me it is all due to pipeline vandalism. Let me remind you that I spent some time at Shell and I know that the standards observed by Shell in Nigeria are nowhere near the standards observed by Shell elsewhere.

    Shell and Western Oil majors are a deeply emotional topic for most Southern Nigerians. It is true they made a lot of money, but the permanently damaged the reputation of the West in the process.

    Our government has been complicit, but since Nigeria has been ruled by Northerners for 38 out of its 51 years of independence, this also contributes to the hatred the South has for the North.

    So sad.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Now Boko Haram is destroying schools in Northern Nigeria. COIN experts, what does this point to?



    http://dailytrust.com.ng/index.php?o...ories&Itemid=8
    The schools being destroyed is sad, very sad indeed. They are not only destroying building, but the future of the northern part of the country. Infrastructure destruction has lasting consequences. Yet, it seems to me that these actions are logical progression of BH ideology. They are against western education so they are tearing it down. Parents are, or soon will, fear to send their kids off to school.

    It continues to be obvious the BH can strike when and where they desire. The security forces are feeble at best. As Stan has said several times, BH is hitting soft targets. The sad part of hitting soft targets is that these targets are much more disruptive to everyday life of the average northerner and causes more fear in them, than bombing of UN buildings and government offices. The vast majority of the citizens live in or near these soft targets.

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    The schools being destroyed is sad, very sad indeed. They are not only destroying building, but the future of the northern part of the country. Infrastructure destruction has lasting consequences. Yet, it seems to me that these actions are logical progression of BH ideology. They are against western education so they are tearing it down. Parents are, or soon will, fear to send their kids off to school.

    It continues to be obvious the BH can strike when and where they desire. The security forces are feeble at best. As Stan has said several times, BH is hitting soft targets. The sad part of hitting soft targets is that these targets are much more disruptive to everyday life of the average northerner and causes more fear in them, than bombing of UN buildings and government offices. The vast majority of the citizens live in or near these soft targets.
    How does the mirror the behaviour of the Taliban in Afghanistan? Should the Nigerian Army organise safe villages in the North (ala Malay insurgency)? But even if they try, 60,000 troops isn't enough to make it happen.

    Are we on the road to Kinshasa - the government safely enclosed within Abuja while the rest of the country falls apart?

  17. #737
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Now Boko Haram is destroying schools in Northern Nigeria. COIN experts, what does this point to?
    Jaja, This is not my primary area of expertise, but it is an area that I am responsible for when performing post blast and reporting to law enforcement (as a means of supporting preventative or awareness training to the general public).

    Destroying infrastructure (be it criminals or terrorists) is intended to disrupt, incapacitate and/or have an impact on security. protecting physical assets means tons of cooperation between the government and private sectors. Not that easy to do.

    Preventative measures means that the Nigerians adapt a more dynamic process (more awareness and preparedness for all) which translates into simply being more prepared and ready to counter adversity. In a word, make BH's targets hard similar to what the police stations and churches have now accomplished. What that has done is made the BH focus on softer and less secure targets. Security is little more than making "this" so difficult that your opponent moves on to something easier (that you have yet to think of).

    The entire picture is now called Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information (PMESII) which the USG uses to gauge the operational environment and create a plan of attack before the attack comes to be.

    BH is merely identifying single points of failure in the hopes of crippling larger systems. Going after schools is not exactly what most would have assumed to be logical. They have not gone after agriculture, food and water which are abundant and very easy targets. But then, they have no intent on leaving Nigeria, so they are less likely to attack the very logistical system they need to survive. Really odd Sierra !

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Should the Nigerian Army organise safe villages in the North (ala Malay insurgency)? But even if they try, 60,000 troops isn't enough to make it happen.

    Are we on the road to Kinshasa - the government safely enclosed within Abuja while the rest of the country falls apart?
    In your home town a "Kinshasa" won't work - the infrastructure is too good. We are back to anticipating their next moves and hardening obvious critical targets. I still recommend people start using the FBI assets in country. The BH acts (of terrorism if you wish to call it that) are very similar to organized crime. They have obviously done their homework and figured out that police stations and churches are hard targets and they incur fatalities.
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    BH is merely identifying single points of failure in the hopes of crippling larger systems. Going after schools is not exactly what most would have assumed to be logical. They have not gone after agriculture, food and water which are abundant and very easy targets. But then, they have no intent on leaving Nigeria, so they are less likely to attack the very logistical system they need to survive. Really odd Sierra !
    Most Nigerians obtain their water from wells or from the nearest stream / village. About food - that would be a logistical nightmare for even Boko Haram to pull off. The sources of food supply are too numerous. So I guess it boils down to schools.

    If I recall (I'm just remembering this), they said that if security services attack local madrassas, they'll attack "Western-style" schools.

    About the road to Kinshasa, I didn't mean it literally, I meant it figuratively. What I meant is that the Northern half of the country becomes too difficult for Abuja to manage and then government retreats to the South and Abuja - a bit like the situation that existed in the dying days of Mobutu.

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    Default General: 3 Africa terror groups may collaborate

    WASHINGTON - The top U.S. commander for Africa says he is increasingly concerned about the likelihood that terrorist groups in Somalia, North Africa and Nigeria want to coordinate their training, funding and terror activities.

    Gen. Carter Ham told Congress Wednesday that terror leaders from al-Shabab, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb and Boko Haram in Nigeria want to more closely synchronize their efforts. He says the three groups are the top three threats in that region, and their collaboration would present a real challenge to the U.S.

    He also says that announcement earlier this month of al-Qaida's formal alliance with al-Shabab suggests that the Somalia-based insurgency has been weakened and is looking for greater international support. The two groups have been working together for several years.
    http://www.heraldtribune.com/article...APW/1202290820

    The thing that interests me the most is the question of funding. Boko Haram (if it is aligned to the rest of these groups) has by far the best access to funding. Think about it, only a few weeks ago a serving state governor gave the family of a slain Boko Haram member's in-law 100 million naira compensation (almost a million dollars).

    Protection money given to BH must be in the hundreds of millions (several million dollar range). You factor in money made from back robberies and Nigeria's monumental corruption and you have a potentially very rich set of terrorists.

    Transferring the money to Al-Shahab shouldn't be too difficult - a lot of stuff goes under the radar in Dubai.

    Who do you guys think?

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Most Nigerians obtain their water from wells or from the nearest stream / village. About food - that would be a logistical nightmare for even Boko Haram to pull off. The sources of food supply are too numerous. So I guess it boils down to schools.
    Having said that, did you conclude that food and water are impossible to poison or contaminate ? Not everything is about explosives. How hard would it be to put a contaminated box of corn flakes into a grocery store ? How hard would it be for me to pour a gallon of sulfuric acid into someone's well ?
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