'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[Chowing]

Boko Haram is many things, it is a:

1. Jihadist movement/terrorist organisation.
2. A vehicle to challenge the dominance of the Northern elite.
3. A source of identification for many unemployed, under-educated Northern Muslim youths.

Meanwhile, Boko Haram taps into another source of tension, the rapid expansion of Evangelical Christianity in Northern Nigeria. This has led a series of conflicts and the prospect of the World's first Evangelical Christian militant organisation Akwat Akwop.

We need to sit down and renegotiate the basis for nationhood - and time is running out fast, a generation with no memories of the Nigerian Civil War is assuming positions of leadership.

Thanks for the great background summary. Very helpful.

I agree (as if that matters) with your assessment of what "Boko Haram is" today.

The clashes between Christians and Muslims has indeed been around for some time in northern Nigeria. Both groups have committed horrendous atrocities. It is my understanding, correct me if I am off, that the press often calls these Christians and Muslim clashes but they are really clashes between various ethnic groups. I understand fully, and have experienced first hand that ethnicity plays a major role in society and politics in Africa.

Can you please enlighten us more on the Akwat Akwop group. I have not heard of them before.

[Chowing]

Have you seen this story.... http://saharareporters.com/news-page...nst-boko-haram

Seems if they now where the troops are coming from there may be some legs to this story.

[KingJaja]

The clashes between Christians and Muslims has indeed been around for some time in northern Nigeria. Both groups have committed horrendous atrocities. It is my understanding, correct me if I am off, that the press often calls these Christians and Muslim clashes but they are really clashes between various ethnic groups. I understand fully, and have experienced first hand that ethnicity plays a major role in society and politics in Africa.

Can you please enlighten us more on the Akwat Akwop group. I have not heard of them before.

The clashes are both religious and ethnic. For example, the Miss World riots of 2002 and the Danish cartoon riots had of a more religious tint. I still recall an extremely bloody set of riots in Northern Nigeria in reaction to the visit of a prominent German evangelist. Religion is as much a form of identity as ethnicity.

[PS: Think about it, you are young, penniless and homeless. You leave your village heading for the township looking for a better life. Who provides you with support? Hint: it's not the Government or Western NGOs. It is either members of your ethnic group or (increasingly) your Church or Mosque. In Lagos, I see young, ambitious, but penniless men from Northern Nigeria sleeping in Mosques. If you are a Christian and you run into serious financial trouble and your family cannot help you out, the tendency is to seek help from fellow parishioners in Church - Churches have benevolence departments to handle that sort of thing.

Many of you wonder why Africans take religion very seriously.]

If you are a Christian and you live with assertive form of Islam, the tendency is for you to be more assertive in your profession of Christianity.

Ethnicity plays a role, but a complex mixture of ethnicity and religion contributes to these clashes.

For example, in Jos, the crisis is between ethnic Berom and Hausa-Fulani settlers. The Berom are predominantly Christian and are farmers, while the Hausa-Fulani are predominantly Muslim and are cattle herders. However, the Hausa-Fulani are not the only settlers in Jos - this fact normally gets lost in most analyses. The crisis in Jos was triggered by gerrymandering to favour the Hausa-Fulani (depends on whose side of the story you listen to). But gerrymandering would not have been necessary if the Hausa-Fulani and Berom shared the same religion.

Not much is known about the Akwat Akwop group and they are yet to do anything spectacular, but this group is dominated by Christians from Nigeria's Middle Belt. Both the Niger Delta Militants and the supporters of Biafra have openly supported the aims of this group. (The Nigerian Army recruits heavily from the Middle Belt, so they are likely to have a strong base of ex-military men).

A potential alliance between Akwat Akwop, the Niger Delta Militants and Biafra supporters seems logical, since all of these groups see Nigeria's core Muslim North as a common enemy.

The map below, shows the distribution of votes during Nigeria's last election.



The states in green voted for a Christian (Jonathan), while the States in blue (which correspond to the states that implement Sharia) voted for his opponent, a Muslim.

Nigeria presents us with a situation like no other - an equally matched number of Christians and Muslims in an unstable developing country. The lessons of Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan do not apply here, this is uncharted territory. The danger is that Boko Haram could just take the lid off the simmering pot and divide Nigeria into two nations with roughly the boundaries shown above. (Which to many people in the South is not a bad thing).

[KingJaja]

Have you seen this story.... http://saharareporters.com/news-page...nst-boko-haram

Seems if they now where the troops are coming from there may be some legs to this story.

A few things.

1. If Nigeria had a competent Police Force / Intelligence gathering resources, there would be no use for Nigerian or US troops.

2. The sighting of a single US soldier will be an incredible recruitment tool for Boko Haram and will severely put US interests at risk, especially at Abuja, a few hundred kilometers away from the epicenter of Boko Haram activities.

3. Very little progress has been made in addressing the real causes of grievance (justice for murdered innocents, unemployment, illiteracy etc).

4. Afghanistan and Iraq show that the US Army isn't really very good at this sort of thing. The US Army tends to go with a one-track this is Al Qaeda mentality.

5. You are not dealing only with a terrorist group you are dealing with an insurgency with a deep well of support among the locals. Boko Haram's main targets have been Police, Military and Government installations. They also act as local Robin Hoods - they've been known to rob banks and distribute the money to the needy.

6. Finally, there is no indication in more serious media that the story is true.

[JMA]

1. If Nigeria had a competent Police Force / Intelligence gathering resources, there would be no use for Nigerian or US troops.

Exactly so, but as there is nothing competent in those areas what are the other options?

[KingJaja]

Exactly so, but as there is nothing competent in those areas what are the other options?

One of the options is state/local police. Police recruitment is centrally managed and many policemen are deployed to areas other than their states of origin. This impacts on their ability to gather intelligence.

In addition, local administrators do not have control over the police, control rests at the center. If local policing is adopted, more competent local administrators will be better able to improve the security situation, attract more investment, improve employment and thus reduce the levels of violence.

On the flip side, local police could be easily used by politicians as private armies.

There is little room for Western intervention in all this. The Nigerian state needs to make some very painful readjustments or stand the risk of dissolution. This is why I keep insisting that the US Government is badly misreading the situation in Nigeria.

[Chowing]

A few things.


2. The sighting of a single US soldier will be an incredible recruitment tool for Boko Haram and will severely put US interests at risk, especially at Abuja, a few hundred kilometers away from the epicenter of Boko Haram activities.

Agreed. And, in my opinion, the presence of US soldiers would further distract southerners and security forces from finding a way to dialog with Boko Haram or at least to work on solving the social/economic situation. The dissonance must continue to raise until Nigerians creatively come up with a way to alleviate the suffering. Outsiders may be able to help but only when asked for.

[JMA]

Nigeria presents us with a situation like no other - an equally matched number of Christians and Muslims in an unstable developing country. The lessons of Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan do not apply here, this is uncharted territory. The danger is that Boko Haram could just take the lid off the simmering pot and divide Nigeria into two nations with roughly the boundaries shown above. (Which to many people in the South is not a bad thing).

Yes, the two nations division is the best solution. Why should one forcefully maintain the arbitrary colonial boundaries?

Hold a referendum now and be done with it.