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Thread: 'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

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    On an unrelated note. The Nigerian police aren't paid very well and they aren't pay very regularly either. So the possibility of BH bribing policemen to obtain critical intelligence information shouldn't be discounted.

    Problems like BH cannot be solved without a major reform of the Nigerian police.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-29-2012 at 08:08 PM. Reason: Removing links as shown elsewhere now

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    On an unrelated note. The Nigerian police aren't paid very well and they aren't pay very regularly either. So the possibility of BH bribing policemen to obtain critical intelligence information shouldn't be discounted.

    Problems like BH cannot be solved without a major reform of the Nigerian police.
    Completely agree with you - even here the government tried to reform a basically corrupt police department without recognizing why people take bribes in the first place. How something so obvious is overlooked even in the West.
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 01-29-2012 at 08:09 PM. Reason: Remove redundant text
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    I think this argument is quite academic. There is a government in Abuja, and specific demands are likely to be made by that government - these demands will depend on how that government perceives the evolving threats. The USG will either accept or reject these demands.
    Most governments that want sometheing from the US issue requests, not demands. What's offered - if anything - may not be the same as what's requested. That would depend on the US perception of its own interests and what, if anything, they believe the US can or should do to advance those interests. Domestic politics play a central role: American involvement in Africa does not generally play well to the populace, especially in today's broadly anti-interventionist environment.

    The "terrorist" designation is I think being blown up into something a bit more important than it is. Certainly BH is arguably a "terrorist" group. Whether it's an international terror group threatening other nations is more debatable. In any event a US "terrorist" designation is not necessarily a prelude to military involvement. Often the label is applied as a way of cutting off funding (probably not an issue in the case of BH, which probably gets few private donations from the US).

    I do not expect to see significant US involvement, and I wouldn't want to see significant US involvement: I doubt that it would make things better and it could easily make things worse.
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    Certainly BH is arguably a "terrorist" group. Whether it's an international terror group threatening other nations is more debatable. In any event a US "terrorist" designation is not necessarily a prelude to military involvement. Often the label is applied as a way of cutting off funding (probably not an issue in the case of BH, which probably gets few private donations from the US).
    Boko Haram is a terrorist group. Attacks against Westerners is not what qualifies a group of people as being terrorists.

    Their modus operandi - Church bombings, attacking police stations, mass terror attacks clearly identifies them as terrorists.

    There is nothing to argue about.

    I accept your point, the argument over the use of the T word is academic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Boko Haram is a terrorist group. Attacks against Westerners is not what qualifies a group of people as being terrorists.

    Their modus operandi - Church bombings, attacking police stations, mass terror attacks clearly identifies them as terrorists.

    There is nothing to argue about.

    I accept your point, the argument over the use of the T word is academic.
    I'm not sure if you're directing this at me because the quoted text is from Dayuhan's post.

    I'm not having an argument with you and our discourse is quite normal for most forums. We are entitled to have our own opinions and generally we attack the subjects well herein. We are a very diverse crowd with a wealth of knowledge to go with our opinions - so it's not strange that you and I disagree on things.

    Sitting where you are I would probably have the same view on BH and their activities. Terrorist do a lot more than the MO you provided above and it is never clear just what activities end up as a rationale for the West to declare them a terrorist group. My thoughts on the Nigerian press and UN dancing around the T word has me thinking they are not convinced either. If the Western press is not giving you folks adequate coverage and your press is skiddish I'm not so sure BH will ever be openly called a terrorist group.

    I will refrain from discussing my point of view should we go into the definition of terrorism again.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    These references to "our sources" and "one source" are suspect and devalue the conclusions, I'd think. Is it not possible that these sources - and possibly those who publish their comments - have vested interests in promoting certain points of view? Not that any of what they suggest is impossible, but I'd hesitate to grant unquestioning belief to items so poorly sourced and supported.
    I would not see them as suspect at all. The top new networks CNN or printed news outlet NY Times often cannot give the name of their sources due to security issues. There is indeed security issues in Nigeria, wouldn't you think?

    Sahara Reports is reputable.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Chowing,

    The intent will not be for Christians to attack Muslims, but to increase the consequences of attacking Christians.

    One of the outcomes of the 1991 riots in Kano (in response to a Christian crusade in that city) was that Christians bought guns and barricaded themselves in the Sabon-Gari area of Kano. The levels of violence against Christians in Kano was reduced.
    I understand and agree that most Christians would not attack, however I also know that a lot of the use of Muslim and Christian terms in the press is not really a clear picture of who the people are, as we have discussed here in the past. A lot of this division is not along religious lines but ethnic lines. Not all "Christians" and "Muslims" are equal. There are a vast number of nominals whose loyalty is more to their ethnic group than religion. It is from this base of nominal Christians that reprisals will most likely occur. The fact still remains, do they know where and who to attack or will they just attack Muslim institutions? I fear that would be the case, and thus hasten a civil war. Also, I doubt that the "Christians" have the explosives and ammo readily available nor do they at present have the same level of expertise as BH.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    I understand and agree that most Christians would not attack, however I also know that a lot of the use of Muslim and Christian terms in the press is not really a clear picture of who the people are, as we have discussed here in the past. A lot of this division is not along religious lines but ethnic lines. Not all "Christians" and "Muslims" are equal. There are a vast number of nominals whose loyalty is more to their ethnic group than religion. It is from this base of nominal Christians that reprisals will most likely occur. The fact still remains, do they know where and who to attack or will they just attack Muslim institutions? I fear that would be the case, and thus hasten a civil war. Also, I doubt that the "Christians" have the explosives and ammo readily available nor do they at present have the same level of expertise as BH.
    As to whether they have explosives and ammo readily available, that would depend on the resources of their backers, what section of the political elite decides to get involved and finally, how much support Christian Military personnel are prepared to provide.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chowing View Post
    I would not see them as suspect at all. The top new networks CNN or printed news outlet NY Times often cannot give the name of their sources due to security issues. There is indeed security issues in Nigeria, wouldn't you think?

    Sahara Reports is reputable.
    I disagree, Sahara Reporters started off well but has earned a reputation for sensationalism. They tend not to check their facts before publishing.

    In addition, they aren't actually on the ground, they are based in NY.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    I disagree, Sahara Reporters started off well but has earned a reputation for sensationalism. They tend not to check their facts before publishing.

    In addition, they aren't actually on the ground, they are based in NY.
    I had not seen much sensationalism, but I will take your evaluation into consideration. I do realize they are not on the ground in Nigeria.

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    Default Reuters Report on Boko Haram

    See below:

    MAIDUGURI, Nigeria (Reuters) - At about 10.40 one morning last August, Mohammed Abul Barra rammed his ash-coloured station wagon into a security gate outside the United Nations headquarters in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, knocking it off its hinges. Barra's 1996 Honda Accord then crashed through the main building's glass doors and slammed against the reception desk.

    On security tapes of the incident seen by Reuters, a guard peers into the car, evidently unaware that it is packed with explosives. The grainy footage shows a dozen or so people in the reception edge towards the vehicle. Over 10 seconds pass in confusion before one man seemingly realises what is about to happen. He grabs the person next to him and darts towards the lift. But it's too late. Barra steadies himself, leans forward and the security screens blur into white fuzz.
    http://af.reuters.com/article/topNew...120131?sp=true

  12. #572
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    We've gone from a fairly simple incident (purportedly the one that started all of this rolling) of a cop stopping members of BH on mopeds because the passengers were not wearing helmets and when they refused to comply several were shot and wounded by police. That was 2009.

    As the bombings have grown in frequency in recent months, the Nigerian government and Western security officials have begun to grapple with the exact nature of the threat. Is Boko Haram just the latest in a long list of violent spasms in Nigeria, or is it the next battalion of global jihadists, capable of thrusting Africa's most populous nation into civil war?
    According to a video on YouTube dated 15 JAN 12, Boko Haram representatives had asked that the government withdraw its troops from Maiduguri, rebuild its destroyed mosques and pay traditional compensation to the families of those killed in the 2009.

    Hardly a difficult request seeing how just a moped helmet (or lack thereof) started the whole enchilada

    The answer to that is not simple. There is evidence - some of it detailed in this story for the first time - that elements of Boko Haram have received training from foreign militant groups, including North Africa-based al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb (AQIM). The August attack was far more sophisticated than anything linked to Boko Haram before.
    The simple statement herein is that not a soul has paid the least amount of attention to what the rest of the world learned the hard way - especially in Africa. A simple active vehicle barrier would have stopped a 5-ton truck in its tracks and turned this day into a farce with one dead suicidal man. There is no evidence of sophistication compared to the level of ignorance and stupidity on the part of security elements to ward off the most elementary "drive by" known since the 70s in Ireland.

    Global jihad ? Give me a break please
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    Stan,

    But the Mumbai terrorists could have easily been stopped if Indian Police were better trained.

    The key issue isn't what happened in the past, but what is likely to happen in future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Stan,

    But the Mumbai terrorists could have easily been stopped if Indian Police were better trained.
    Jaja,
    Interesting example. Following the 2008 attacks and enhanced training throughout the police force, there was nearly a three year gap between attacks (as well as a lot of evidence on foiled attacks such as vehicle borne IEDs discovered and destroyed). I doubt it was easy and did not mean to convey it would be in Nigeria, but we have to start somewhere. Why not with the current trend to employ VBIEDs? BH could have easily placed a 10-ton truck on the outer perimeter of the UN building and caused similar damage, but it would have meant a bunch of civilian casualties and the risk of being spotted. Begs the question lately - are they even concerned over innocent casualties, or, are they more interested in showing the public just how incapable the Nigerian government is ?

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    The key issue isn't what happened in the past, but what is likely to happen in future.
    True to some extent. My technical nit-picking on this article is to also identify what and how things led to a relatively easy attack. Part of preventing more such attacks means studying your opponent and especially the past. The forensics and post blast indicate a totally lackadaisical day at the UN building. The guard could have spent an extra 5 seconds and may have saved lives. I would bet there are vehicle searches now !
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    Default Boko Haram attacks Air Force barracks

    More attacks:

    ABUJA – IN Continuation of its plan to Islamize Northern Nigeria, the Boko Haram Islamic Sect on Monday night invaded the Nigerian Air Force, NAF, barracks as well as a police station in Maiduguri, Borno State, killing five persons including a soldier, two policemen and two civilians.

    Also, two other civilians were reportedly injured, as the sect members bombed the Gambouru/Ngala police station, the Joint Task Force, JTF, check point. The incident was said to have occurred at about 6.30 pm. Gambouru/Ngala is a border town with Chad Republic and 150 kilometres North-East of Maiduguri, the state capital.

    To cripple the sect, the Chief of Army Staff, Lt Gen. Azubuike Ihejirika, yesterday, canvassed decisive actions against it, warning that the earlier the government took the bull by the horn and acted decisively, the better for the future of the nation. He anchored the need for decisive steps on the fact that the menace had spread to other parts of West Africa.

    Ihejirika’s warning came on a day the Department of State Security Service (SSS) quizzed immediate past Governor of Kano State, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau over his alleged involvement in the sponsorship of the sect.
    http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/02/b...orce-barracks/

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    Default Boko Haram : Splinter group, Ansaru emerges

    Splinter group - sign of ideological rift? government manipulation? psych-ops?

    Indications have emerged that an ideological feud within the rank and file of the Boko Haram sect may have led to a breakaway faction. The new outfit calls itself ‘Ansaru.’

    In a statement circulated in Kano, Ansaru gave its full name as “Ansarul Muslimina Fi Biladis Sudan,” meaning Vanguards for the Protection of Muslims in Black Africa.

    Its motto is “Jihad Fi Sabilillah,” meaning it is fighting and sacrificing for Allah’s cause. The statement was signed by one Abu Usamata Al’Ansari, who claimed to be its leader.

    Ansaru expressed displeasure with Boko Haram’s style of operations, which it described as inhuman to the Muslim Ummah. It vowed to restore dignity and sanity to “the lost dignity of Muslims in black Africa” and to bring back the dignity of Islam in Nigeria and the Sokoto Caliphate, founded by Othman Dan Fodio in 1804, which spread across Niger Republic, Cameroon and some other West African countries.
    http://www.vanguardngr.com/2012/02/b...nsaru-emerges/

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    Default Over 1 Million Refugees In Bauchi – Yuguda

    Do we have a looming refugee crisis?

    The Bauchi State government has disclosed that it is harbouring over one million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in the state from the crisis-ridden states bordering it.

    State Governor Isa Yuguda, who spoke through his Chief Press Secretary, Ishola Micheal Adeyemi, told journalists in Kaduna that many of those affected by either the ethno-religious crisis of the past or the recent onslaught by Boko Haram, have all found a new home in Bauchi State.

    He was however quick to say that efforts were geared towards making sure that they (IDPs) were comfortable. This, he said, explains the chunk of fund the state has allocated to security, revealing that five camps had been set up by the state government to cater for them.

    “We are doing everything humanly possible to make all of them comfortable, whether they are from the state or not. Once you have lived in Bauchi State for up to five years, you are already an indigene of the state,” he said.

    He also posited that following the security challenges in the country, the state government was working with the security agencies to ensure security of life and property.

    He also stated that part of the administration’s achievements since assumption of office was the building and equipping of five modern General Hospitals in the state, and added that the government would soon build a 200-bed specialist hospital as the one the state had, had been taken over by the Federal Government.
    http://leadership.ng/nga/articles/15...93_yuguda.html

  18. #578
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Splinter group - sign of ideological rift? government manipulation? psych-ops?
    Based on your description of the Nigerian security services and military, my guess is it is not PSYOPS. A fancy acronym for a rather complicated task which generally does not include killing

    Free interpretation of Islamic law to justify one's actions is certainly nothing new, but in this instance it seems a bit backwards. One thing which will clear up the confusion will be when they start taking out BH members (in BH style).

    According to the statement, “For the first time, we are glad to announce to the public the formation of this group that has genuine basis. We will have dispassionate look into everything, to encourage what is good and see to its spread and to discourage evil and try to eliminate it.”
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    Default Middle Belt "News Source"

    A website published by Christians from Nigeria's Middle Belt (ground zero in the confrontation between Islam and Christianity). Of poor quality, but shows a video of a beheading.

    http://themessengervoice.com/

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    Default Jos: The Window into a Nigerian Civil War

    What do you guys think of this article?

    The collapse of Africa's most populous nation into civil war may hinge on the stability of one unsuspecting middle belt city, argues Jay Radzinski.


    Middle East Online


    Nigeria's Middle Belt region is where the country's Christian south and Muslim north come to a head. This convergence of religion manifests in the capital Abuja, where the equally represented populations are generally tolerant of one another. In the nearby city of Jos whose societal make up is starkly similar to the capital, religious intolerance is brewing tension to a dangerous boiling point.

    Over the last twenty years, Jos has been plagued by sectarian violence which has claimed thousands of lives while displacing many others. In 2010, week-long riots resulted in the death of hundreds of locals and the destruction of churches and mosques alike. This steady campaign of attacks against places of worship has made chances of reconciling these populations a seemingly insurmountable feat. The people of Jos may not yet be cognizant of this fact, but the deteriorating security situation in the rest of Nigeria may have a far more tragic impact in a place with a deeply rooted history of intolerance.

    Nigeria's predominantly Muslim north has become increasingly engulfed in a violent campaign by fundamentalist violence. On January 20, Nigeria's second city of Kano was devastated by a wave of bombings by Boko Haram Jihadists against military, police, and government installations, killing upwards of 250 people. Continuous attacks like these, along with a previous Boko Haram warning for all Christians to leave the northern states, have incited nearly 35,000 people to flee southward thus far.

    These newly created refugees, who are leaving with such panic and haste that they are not bothering to bring their most valuable of possessions with them, are making way for Jos. Positioned just outside of the Muslim north, Jos provides a convenient safe haven for Christian refugees as they journey towards the friendlier south. As many of those refugees opt to remain in Jos, they threaten to alter the delicate sectarian balance in the city, paving the way for shattering the city's hard-won peace.

    Given Jos' recent history of violence, it remains clear that fierce and deadly riots may erupt from even seemingly insignificant altercations. In 2001, the appointment of a Muslim resident as the Local Coordinator to Eradicate Poverty, sparked outrage from the Christian community, which led to mass rioting and destruction. The skyrocketing death toll of those riots forced the local morgue to dig mass graves to compensate for the lack of space. The 2001 riots are a testament that Christians of Nigeria are not akin to sheep being led to the slaughter. Amidst the recent escalation in the country's north, Christian residents have already been stockpiling arms, becoming increasingly disillusioned from the government's willingness and capability to protect them.
    http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=50410

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