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Thread: 'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

  1. #621
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    Jaja,
    Given your education and intellect, I never thought you would go for the jugular with one of the SWJ's best members.

    This is unbecoming of you.
    I apologize to Tequila. I don't ever intend to appear brash.

    and sending one's Troops off to fight others 11,000 or more miles away for whatever reason is a bit different than just killing some of one's own people because they're annoying...
    The US has no problems sending troops to Iraq/Afghanistan for the same reason the Nigerian Army has no problem conducting kinetic operations in Liberia/Sierra Leone. These are both risks, these both involve "sticking ones head out", but they are calculated risks.

    No US president will confront either the Chinese, the Russians or even the North Koreans. But most importantly, just like no Nigeria president has been able to stand up forcefully against Sharia, no US president has either - and that is where the real courage lies.

    No, probably not. I'm unaware of any initiative to push gay rights in SSA other than the State Dept. objecting to the recent proposal in Uganda to subject homosexuals to the death penalty. The State Dept. also recently objected to Egyptian attempts to arrest foreign funding of civil society groups. Why did this occur? Probably because there was some action on the part of the Egyptian military to crush civil society groups that required a U.S. response.
    You probably haven't been following the SSA news media. There are many experienced Africa hands in the State Department and they know exactly what the impact of those pronouncements were likely to be.

    Shortly before or after that pronouncement was made, Hillary Clinton went on a well publicised trip to SSA. We know it was a cynical ploy to corner the gay vote, but no one should tell me that nobody knew what the impact would be.

    This is an example of US State Department's activism on gay rights in SSA.

    The State Department Thursday condemned a proposed bill in the Ugandan parliament that could make engaging in homosexual acts a capital offense punishable by death. The bill may be debated Friday by the Ugandan parliament.

    "No amendments, no changes, would justify the passage of this odious bill," State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters. "Both (President Barack Obama) and (Secretary of State Hillary Clinton) publicly said it is inconsistent with universal human rights standards and obligations."
    http://articles.cnn.com/2011-05-12/w...ty?_s=PM:WORLD

    I challenge you to produce a similarly worded condemnation of the death sentence mandated under Sharia for homosexual activities in Saudi Arabia.

    This is what I am talking about.

  2. #622
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    Default Wole Soyinka on Boko Haram/the North

    Please read:

    To what will you attribute Boko Haram’s terrorism?-Let me begin by reminding everyone that Boko Haram has a very long history, whether you describe Boko Haram as an army of the discontent, or even as some people grotesquely try to suggest, “revolutionaries,” or you describe them as, legitimately, this time, as marginalised or feeling marginalised.

    When I say that the phenomenon has a very long history, I am talking about a movement that relies on religion as a fuel for their operation, as a fuel for mobilisation, as the impetus, an augmentation of any other legitimate or illegitimate grievance that they might have against society. Because of that fuel, that irrational, very combustible fuel of religion of a particular strain, of a particular irredentist strain; because of the nature of that religious adherence, which involves the very lethal dimension of brain-washing from childhood, all a man needs to be told is that this is a religious cause. All they need to be told is that this is an enemy of religion and they are ready to kill. No matter the motivations, no mater the extra-motivations of those who send them out, they need only one motivation: that they are fighting the cause of that religion.

    People wonder, sometimes, if they are fighting the cause of religion, why are they also killing fellow religionists? It is very important for us to understand that they have a very narrow view of even their faith. Anyone outside that narrow confine, narrow definition (in this case, we are talking about Islam), is already an infidel, an unbeliever, a hypocrite, an enemy of God (they use all these multifarious descriptions) and therefore is fit for elimination. If they believe that this environment contains any non-believer in their very narrow strain of Islam, that person or that very area is due for sanitation. And if there are those who also believe, who are confined within the very narrow limit of their arbitrary religion, any chance that there are such people, they consider them matyrs, who will be received in the bosom of Allah, with double credits as having been killed accidentally.

    What I am saying is not any theorising; it is not any speculation. Examine this particular strain of Islam from Afghanistan, through Iran to Somalia to Mauritania. We are speaking in fact of a deviant arm of Islam, whose first line of enemies, in fact, are those who I call the orthodox Muslims with whom we move, interact, inter-marry, professional colleagues and so on. They don’t consider them true Muslims.

    So the seeming paradox is explained in that. And this mind is bred right from infancy. We are talking about the madrasas, we are talking about the almajiris. They have only one line of command: their Mullah. If the Mullah says go, they go; come, they come; kill, they kill; beg, they beg. They don’t believe in leaving their narrow religion, which teaches them that they have to be catered for either by their immediate superior as an authority or by the community or sometimes an extension of that by the town. When they go out to beg, they believe that this mission of begging is divinely ordered and it is the responsibility of the person from whom they are begging to give them alms.

    They sit before their Mullah or their Emir or their chief or whatever and memorise the Qu’ran. Their entire circumscription or mental formation is to be able to recite the Qu’ran from the beginning to the end. Outside of that, there is no educational horizon. So, I want us to distinguish very carefully. If you don’t distinguish, if you don’t narrow these things down to the specifics, we are likely to be misunderstood, as people like me have been misunderstood, because I have been against fundamentalism all my life, of any religion, whether it’s Christianity, Orisha worship, Buddhism, Hinduism or whatever. Any kind of extreme in faith that makes you feel that you are divinely authorised to be the executioner of your deity or that there is only one view of the world, or that only one view exists, for me, is pernicious and it is anti-human. That is why I am making this preliminary explanation.
    http://saharareporters.com/interview...rorism-thenews

  3. #623
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    I apologize to Tequila. I don't ever intend to appear brash.
    Thank you, but no apology is necessary - I did not take offense. I did not think you were being rude, just unnecessarily dismissive.

    The US has no problems sending troops to Iraq/Afghanistan for the same reason the Nigerian Army has no problem conducting kinetic operations in Liberia/Sierra Leone. These are both risks, these both involve "sticking ones head out", but they are calculated risks.

    No US president will confront either the Chinese, the Russians or even the North Koreans. But most importantly, just like no Nigeria president has been able to stand up forcefully against Sharia, no US president has either - and that is where the real courage lies.
    What exactly are you looking for the U.S. president to do? To pick a fight with the Saudis over sharia law?

    http://articles.cnn.com/2011-05-12/w...ty?_s=PM:WORLD

    I challenge you to produce a similarly worded condemnation of the death sentence mandated under Sharia for homosexual activities in Saudi Arabia.

    This is what I am talking about.
    I mentioned this exact incident in my post.

    So why a U.S. condemnation of the Ugandan law and not one for KSA's law?

    To reiterate my posts before, two reasons.

    1) The Ugandan law was up for passage but not passed yet. It represented a major change in the way the Ugandan state would regulate homosexuality - before it did not mandate the death penalty, afterwards it would. A U.S. statement of disapproval might affect change by encouraging the Ugandans not to pass the law. Thus the possibility of change was there.

    2) U.S. interests were not significantly affected either way. Note that there was absolutely no threat of curtailment of U.S. aid or support, and indeed the article I linked previously indicates that there will not be any consideration of such curtailment linked to homosexuality.

    So why no such condemnation of Saudi law against homosexuality?

    1) With KSA, there was no trigger event like in Uganda where civil rights were being significantly downgraded - they are already at the lowest possible level and have been for decades. Thus a U.S. condemnation would seem both (1) out of the blue and (2) hypocritical given previous U.S. behavior. Also the U.S. has no possibility of affecting KSA behavior towards their own homosexual citizens. In Uganda, there was the possibility of the law not being passed - in KSA, there is absolutely no possibility that the KSA would repeal their anti-homosexuality ban.

    2) U.S interests would be affected by picking a human rights fight with the KSA. We are engaged with the KSA on a number of security issues on Iran, Pakistan, Iraq, the GCC. Basically we need Saudi cooperation on a number of issues. We have had no success affecting internal change in KSA because we have almost zero leverage.

    What is the point of making demands or picking fights when you cannot affect positive change, but you can signicantly harm cooperation on achieving goals affecting your national interest?

    Is this "moral courage"? Maybe. Perhaps it is also an exercise in pointless futility that harms the national interest while also not encouraging human rights. That's not what the President is elected to do, IMO.

    Excellent article by Wole Soyinka, BTW. I agree with him that BH's main goal is destabilize the North and to make the entire country ungovernable - they are following the Zawahiri/al-Qaeda in Iraq playbook to a tee, though I am not suggesting that they are anything like as cohesive as AQI.
    Last edited by tequila; 02-13-2012 at 07:06 PM.

  4. #624
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    Default Different strokes...

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    The US has no problems sending troops to Iraq/Afghanistan for the same reason the Nigerian Army has no problem conducting kinetic operations in Liberia/Sierra Leone. These are both risks, these both involve "sticking ones head out", but they are calculated risks.
    True. Calculated being the operative word. In any event, that the risk of foreign campaigns is taken by anyone, a degree of courage of a type is being shown. My point was and is that such an effort makes this earlier statement from you:
    ""Killing people is neither a sign of strength nor is it a sign of bravery. Both the Nigerian government, the US government and Saddam have killed a lot of Muslims, that doesn't make any of them brave.""
    an evasion as well as only a partial truth. How and where are an indicator of a type of courage. Speaking truth to power is an entirely different type...
    No US president will confront either the Chinese, the Russians or even the North Koreans...
    Sweeping statement and history proves it wrong in the case of all three nations. More than one US President has challenged each of those nations in the past when it seemed to be necessary.To say that the level of provocation required to trigger standing up to those three is higher than for some others is certainly true but your implication of never is an error. Note also that with respect to North Korea, the prime deterrent to us is what would / could happen to areas of South Korea.
    But most importantly, just like no Nigeria president has been able to stand up forcefully against Sharia, no US president has either - and that is where the real courage lies.
    You're entitled to your opinion . In the case of both nations, I disagree. It takes more courage to avoid needless confrontation than it does to act like an offended teenager. While you and I may have no use for Sharia, a large number of Muslims believe it's important and they are as entitled to their opinions and preferences every bit as much as you or I.

    In both cases, standing up is easy to suggest as needed or desirable while finding a better, more sensible approach is harder. That remains true unless the provocation is severe and seen as truly and impending threat -- rightly or wrongly, long term threats are discounted. That's a people thing

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    Excellent article by Wole Soyinka, BTW. I agree with him that BH's main goal is destabilize the North and to make the entire country ungovernable - they are following the Zawahiri/al-Qaeda in Iraq playbook to a tee, though I am not suggesting that they are anything like as cohesive as AQI.
    But do they have to be as cohesive as AQI to wreck havoc? At a particular point in time, there was a new militant leader popping up in the Niger Delta - but look at the damage they did.

  6. #626
    Council Member tequila's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    But do they have to be as cohesive as AQI to wreck havoc? At a particular point in time, there was a new militant leader popping up in the Niger Delta - but look at the damage they did.
    No, not at all. I doubt even some accounts of how unified AQI was - JSOC gets enormous credit for Zarqawi's death, justifiably so, but let's not forget that killing Zarqawi did not end the violence. AQI remained just as active after his death as before.

    Both Iraq and Nigeria are fragile states, fighting to retain control of territories which were/are increasingly hostile to the central authority, in the midst of mini civil wars within those territories. Nigeria is nowhere near as violent as Iraq even now, but one wonders if the Nigerian state can hold it together. It is much easier to make a place ungovernable than to govern it.

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    Both Iraq and Nigeria are fragile states, fighting to retain control of territories which were/are increasingly hostile to the central authority, in the midst of mini civil wars within those territories. Nigeria is nowhere near as violent as Iraq even now, but one wonders if the Nigerian state can hold it together. It is much easier to make a place ungovernable than to govern it.
    They are also artificial states created by the British, so united Nigeria at all costs may not even be desirable.

    If BH can speed up the dissolution of the Nigerian state and the divorce proceedings can be done peacefully - then a lot of good is possible.

  8. #628
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    They are also artificial states created by the British, so united Nigeria at all costs may not even be desirable.

    If BH can speed up the dissolution of the Nigerian state and the divorce proceedings can be done peacefully - then a lot of good is possible.
    Peaceful divorces are very rare, unfortunately. Nigeria's checkered history is not encouraging. But you know much more about this than I - do you think such an outcome is feasible at all?

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    The contrast between Obama's activism on gay rights in Sub-Saharan Africa (everyone knows the name of that Ugandan legislator and he so-called evangelical sponsors) and his apparent silence on the treatment of homosexuals in Saudi Arabia (heck even women are not allowed to drive there!) is the best illustration of moral cowardice I've ever seen.

    And don't give me that line on US interests, it doesn't wash.
    Quote Originally Posted by tequila View Post
    What doesn't wash about it? That U.S. interests abroad trump "moral courage" or human rights idealism?

    Sorry, but that's the entirety of my argument. U.S. foreign policy will, generally speaking, always be about interests first and human rights/ideology second. I'm not sure why this should be otherwise.
    There's a key element missing from both sides of this equation: domestic politics. That may not equate to "US Interests" or to "moral idealism", but it's still a major factor in US decisions.

    I have to say I don't see any real, meaningful activism on gay rights in SSA, or anywhere. There are some words being thrown around, but they aren't backed by any kind of pressure that amounts to anything.

    The gay vote in the US is substantial and organized, and its a key part of the Democratic base. When a situation like the proposed legislation in Uganda comes up it provides an opportunity for the administration to play to that part of the base with no risk at all: even if there was a backlash in Uganda, there are no potential economic or security implications, and since there's only words involved anyway the backlash is not likely to be more than transient.

    To put t simply, no vital US interest was involved, but there was a significant political interest for the administration in power, and an opportunity to play to a voting bloc with little or no risk of backlash. That may be moral cowardice or simply a reality of American politics, or a bit of both... doesn't seem a significant issue any way you slice it.

    As far as the Nigeria situation goes, I see no role for the US at all, and the less the US says and does about it the happier I'll be. What would anyone gain from a US "terrorist organization" designation? That would block US-based funding to BH, but is there any funding there to block? Beyond that, seems to me all you'd get would be a storm of hysterical talk about imminent AFRICOM involvement. BH would gain some street cred with the AQ types, and the conflict would look more international than it does now. What good would that do Nigeria?

    For better or worse, it's a Nigerian problem for Nigerians to deal with. The less the US intrudes, the better.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    To put t simply, no vital US interest was involved, but there was a significant political interest for the administration in power, and an opportunity to play to a voting bloc with little or no risk of backlash. That may be moral cowardice or simply a reality of American politics, or a bit of both... doesn't seem a significant issue any way you slice it.
    What exactly does the US stand for? This important question is going to be asked a lot more often as the diplomatic space becomes more competitive and a new generation of better educated, better informed young Africans assume positions of authority (hopefully, I intend to be part of that group ).

    The US has on the one hand a very activist foreign policy, full of sound and fury. On the other hand, it has no problem doing deals with the worst of the worst of dictators. Simply put, the US over promises but under-delivers.

    No one doubts that Americans are a better deal than the Chinese, but with the Chinese you know where you stand. They don't promise to bring Heaven to Earth. They don't insist on being beacons of light. We all know they bribe etc.

    In the minds of many Africans, the USG is full of hypocrites, people hate brutes but they hate hypocrites even more.

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    Default Nigeria: Fixing the North - One State At a Time

    A little more context on bad governance in Northern Nigeria. (69 billion naira is close to $500 million dollars which is significant by African standards for a state with a population of only 2.3 million)

    column

    The truth is bitter and to criticize and point out flaws is easy. This easily sums up the reactions to last week's "Legacies & the failed north" and now that the symptoms have been diagnosed and the prognosis is bad, what is the cure for what ails the north?

    In a nutshell: long-term focus on using the competitive advantage of the states to drive development for the majority of the people and good, sincere governance. How? Let's take Yobe as a sample of the opportunities -because it is the poorest state in Nigeria (struggling with Jigawa for this award) and the state of origin of Mohammed Yusuf, the acclaimed leader of Boko Haram. Home to 2.3 million people, Yobe was carved out of Borno in 1991 partly to address its underdevelopment and 21 years later...not much has changed.

    In 2011, Yobe's budget was N69.26 billion with 54 percent spent on capital expenditure and 39 percent spent on its recurrent expenditure. This seems extremely encouraging until you discover what the Yobe government considers to be capital expenditure. The purchase of Lexus jeeps and other motor vehicles for security surveillance at N650 million and the repair of offices and furniture for offices and lodges at N137 million are all categorised as capital expenditure. This is apart from the N746 million spent on completing and furnishing the new office complex for the secretary to the state government and the head of service and N9.4 million for tree planting around offices. This type of spending is unwise because it does yield any returns on investment for the state.

    Instead of furnishing hotels to tempt tourists, this is what Ibrahim Geidam, Governor of Yobe could focus on the following.

    Agriculture

    Yobe has a competitive advantage in the production of certain food and cash crops including gum Arabic which forms 40 percent of the United States of America's imports. Gum Arabic comes from the acacia tree and is a miracle edible substance which is found in everything from cosmetics to soft drinks, M&M chocolates, paint and even shoe polish. Geidam can increase the investment in planting and harvesting of acacia trees - including partnering with the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture in Ibadan to fund research in the most resilient and fastest growing species. Acacia trees already have a reputation for fast growth and ability to survive the dry weather, making it ideal for Yobe where the dry season lasts as long as 7 months of the year.

    The drive for the increased production of acacia trees will reduce unemployment especially if he gives all graduates who sign up 5 hectares of land with the promise of a C of O after a fixed number of years. The ultimate aim of the increased growth of acacia trees should be to set up factories which will process, package and export gum Arabic -creating more jobs and increasing internally generated revenue.

    Instead of jeeps for surveillance, Geidam can invest in tractors and improve the farm level productivity of Yobe along the recommendations of the experts - who we need improved technology and irrigation, quality seedlings and better post harvest management to halt the loss of 20-30 percent of our perishable crops.
    http://allafrica.com/stories/201202140627.html

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    What exactly does the US stand for?
    What exactly does any nation stand for? There's never going to be an easy or simple answer to a question like that, and anyone who thinks they've found one is probably missing a great deal and oversimplifying what they see.

    It will help when people accept that America is just one more mass of contrary, contradictory folks driven by numerous motives, many of which are inconsistent and in competition with other motives. In this they are much like other people and other nations.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 02-14-2012 at 11:48 AM.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Dayuhan,


    What is galling is the gulf between the rhetoric and the practice. We are going to all see the impact of forty years of hypocrisy in the post-Arab Spring Middle East (especially when the Saudi regime falls as it must).

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    Default R. I. P.

    A Nigerian bomb disposal officer has been killed when an explosive device he was trying to defuse went off, a police spokesperson has said.

    A true shame that someone would send a bomb tech out without PPE.
    On the up side, they seem to be finding more IEDs before innocent victims are taken.
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

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    Stan,

    Read about it, the poor guy was ripped to pieces by the bomb. Are you sure he didn't have PPE?

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Stan,

    Read about it, the poor guy was ripped to pieces by the bomb. Are you sure he didn't have PPE?
    Hey Jaja,
    Yeah, that's the way it was reported. One bomb suit for over 50 people of varying sizes/weights (we have 12 suits for every 20 people - all donated). The heavy bomb suits the Nigerian police use would have saved him from twice that explosive force.

    They also have in their inventory water cannons (disruptor), which, he could have employed for approximately $1.30 per round (basically an electric firing 12 gauge shotgun shell) and disintegrated the IED from as far as 300 meters without a high order detonation.

    We're all victims of too many Hollywood movies, but most of us know the difference.
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    Default The appeal of the Chinese to local manufacturers

    Most Western commentary about African-Chinese relationships tends to be one dimensional - i.e the Chinese dominate the scene, do very little in the way of technology transfer and only the Chinese and African government officials benefit.

    That is patent nonsense.

    I am writing from Enugu, in South-Eastern Nigeria. A local businessman teamed up with Chinese technical partners to set up a motor vehicle assembly plant near here. I can assure that there is a lot of technology transfer going on and I can see the buses on the streets. (I even entered one of the buses).



    The red, air-conditioned bus shown above is assembled in Nigeria.



    This is a Nigerian clone of a Chinese clone of a Toyota bus.

    Not bad for a 13 - 17 seater bus.

    (A brand new Toyota Hiace can be got for 13 million naira - $81,250)

    The same manufacturer has a plant in Ghana and he is doing business with the Ghanaian government.

    Please read this:

    IBESE, Nigeria - Chinese company Sinoma has completed a $1 billion cement plant in Nigeria that will provide the country with a new export industry.

    The plant, owned by Nigeria-based cement giant Dangote Group, was formally unveiled Thursday evening by Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan at Ibese, in southwest Nigeria's Ogun State.

    Sinoma signed a $1.6-billion contract and $1.177-billion letter of intent with Dangote Group in February 2008 to build the plant, which will have an annual capacity of 6 million tons and is expected to make cement more available and affordable in Nigeria.

    Jonathan said the country was set to be an exporter of cement under the 2002 backward integration policy introduced by former President Olusegun Obasanjo.

    Jonathan said his administration would continue to encourage the private sector in the development of the nation's economy.

    Dangote Group chairman Aliko Dangote said the new plant would generate 7,000 direct jobs and many indirect jobs, noting it was the biggest cement factory in sub-Saharan Africa.

    "With the commissioning and full operation of the plant, Nigeria will start exportation of cement to African countries and beyond in a month," he said.

    Sinoma senior director Wu Shoufu told Xinhua that local workers had made a great contribution to the company's rapid completion of the project.

    More than 2,000 Nigerians had been involved in the building process, he said.

    "We are glad that this is happening," he told Xinhua.
    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchin...t_14581028.htm

    This is a very big deal, it was all over the news. As usual, the Western media wasn't interested. Nigeria is on the verge of transiting from being a net importer of cement to being a net exporter of cement and it couldn't have happened without the Chinese (their cost profiles are extremely attractive).

    When we hear the West complaining about the Chinese in Africa we sometimes think it is a case of jealously/sour grapes.

    In conclusion, the Chinese interaction with Africa is not the same one dimensional story from Zambia, Congo and Angola. Please resist the temptation to extrapolate from the experience of miners in Zambia and apply it to the rest of Africa.

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    Council Member Dayuhan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    What is galling is the gulf between the rhetoric and the practice. We are going to all see the impact of forty years of hypocrisy in the post-Arab Spring Middle East (especially when the Saudi regime falls as it must).
    Hypocrisy is in no way unique to the west:

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/ch..._131381416.htm

    All I see here is the equivalent of a disgruntled divorcee in the first flush of courtship with a new suitor. Of course this one is different, he gives me stuff and talks nice and asks for nothing in return. Of course some years down the line the hypocrisy and the self-interest becomes clear, and sooner or later the disgruntled realize that nobody will ever court them without an agenda, and that if they want someone to look after their own interests thay have to do it themselves.

    I don't personally think the Chinese (or the West) are evil, or that Chinese engagement in Africa is a problem for or a threat to the West. I just don't think they're going to prove to be all that different at the end of the day. I don't object to it at all. I don't suppose that either the Chinese or the Africans will get all from it that they think they will, but that's the nature of international relations. I'd say step back and let it run its course, for better or worse; not going to hurt us any way it works out.

    I do expect an backlash in East Africa against Chinese ownership of agricultural land and import of agricultural workers... foreign ownership of agricultural land is something that easily emerges as a hot-button issue. Other issues will emerge in other places, perhaps not in all... but that's inevitable no matter who the parties are. We'll see how it plays out.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    From Dayuhan
    I just don't think they're going to prove to be all that different at the end of the day. I don't object to it at all.
    What informs this view? Do you have concrete evidence to back it up or are you merely speculating?
    Last edited by davidbfpo; 02-15-2012 at 10:00 AM. Reason: Identify citation from

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    I don't think it's possible to cite evidence for something that hasn't happened yet. The expectation is based in part on many years of observing the overseas Chinese communities and Chinese projects in Southeast Asia, in part on many years of observing large development projects (even those with the best of intentions) and in part on the basic nature of human and international relations. Surely nobody believes that the Chinese don't intend to take more out than they put in...
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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