Niger Delta Militants were using explosives long before Boko Haram.
From the Punch this morning: Two shot as robbers raid Ogun banks
If this isn't BH, then it appears just about anyone can purchase TNT and rob a bank.It was learnt that bandits, arrived at the bank in Ijebu Igbo about 12 noon in a Hummer and Mazda space wagon.
They were said to have operated for about 30 minutes unchallenged before escaping.
Eyewitnesses said the bandits also blew up the bank’s security doors and Automated Teller Machine with a dynamite.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Niger Delta Militants were using explosives long before Boko Haram.
Where I'm at commercial explosives are fairly easy to obtain, due to leakage from the construction and mining industries. Similar there?
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
Likely impact of Libya on Nigeria and the Sahel
Anyone know what's up with the Libyans? Who is in charge? To what extent does Islamism pervade society? What exactly will the effect of the new regime be on Nigeria and the Sahel?
The Libyan effect?
There have been articles on the apparent chaos, evaporation of solidarity and power coming from a "technical" and guns. Yet to see one not by non-resident reporters and analysts. No-one is in charge. One reporter commented the new national army is smartly dressed and nothing else. Not so clear on Islamism; but in such conditions religious certainty is ready to give political certainty. Final point; almost nothing and little intention or capability to bother.Originally Posted by KingJaja
All from my "armchair".
davidbfpo
As David comments, nobody seems to have achieved any clear degree of control. If an Islamist regime emerged and took power, and if they consolidated domestic control to a degree that would permit foreign adventures, they might have some impact on the Sahel... but there's a lot of "if" and "might" in there, and the nations of the Sahel have much more urgent problems close at home in any event.
A more immediate issue would probably be a bunch of new weapons coming onto the black market, but that would be a consequence of profit-seeking, not Islamism.
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”
H.L. Mencken
I assume you're directing this at Jaja, but it is a valid point especially here. In the early 90s there was an explosion a day from organized crime and the majority of the materials were also from construction and mining sites. Today there are barely two explosions a year involving commercial grade TNT.
These tighter controls have forced the criminals to dig for UXO, which, by blowing themselves up, has relieved the justice system of additional burdens.
They need to get pro-active and trace the components - it's not made in Nigeria, so there must be a register following importation and subsequent use.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
Stan,
I actually made that comment.
It is doubtful that a nation that cannot even properly regulate the importation of refined petroleum products or regulate issuance of identity documents can regulate importation of explosives.
Nigeria is in sense, a sum of all fears, a combination of weak governance, state failure, poverty, religious fundamentalism, corruption and human rights abuses.
Jonathan has to suddenly deal with the consequences of fifty years of directionless leadership, corruption and ethnic rivalries. This would task even the most competent and visionary leadership anywhere in the World - but Jonathan cannot be said to belong to that category.
Another take on Africa's economy
A very interesting article in today's The Atlantic concerning development, the economy and distribution of wealth in Africa. A very hopeful article and a good read after all of our talk about poverty and hopelessness. This article cleared my lenses.
http://www.theatlantic.com/internati...-world/253587/The poverty mafia once controlled the development debate in Africa. No longer.
The old approach was about how to prevent Africa from getting poorer. All development goals were essentially negative, as experts wallowed in risk-aversion and promoted various doomsday scenarios of an Africa with a rapidly growing population.
The new thinking on development is to share Africa's wealth more equitably. That's right: Africa's wealth.
I think countries like Rwanda are more the exception than the rule.
If for example the DRC could muster even half that effort combined with their ability to export electricity, they would want for nothing.But even countries without such natural resources, such as Rwanda, have seen significant gains, mostly because of improved economic governance and the return of money and skills from Africans who left their countries during the dog days. Rwanda, for instance, long an importer of food, now grows enough to satisfying the needs of its people, and even exports cash crops such as coffee for the first time.
. Only strong nation-states, committed to fairness, can manage the new tensions brought on by wealth and insure that the old risk-averse agenda of African development -- obsessing over preventing further slippage into poverty rather than nakedly pursuing legitimate achievable gains -- becomes an artifact of history.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
The Western environmental types will be up in arms against hydro power. Sometimes, I thank God for the Chinese - if we didn't have the Chinese, no dams would be built. (They are willing to provide financing and loans for dams).If for example the DRC could muster even half that effort combined with their ability to export electricity, they would want for nothing.
In Nigeria, a Deadly Group’s Rage Has Local Roots
Interesting article for NY Times. Seems to point to large local (read Hausa) support for Boko Haram. In an ethnically divided nation, this could be interpreted to mean Boko Haram = Hausa by other ethnic groups. This is ultimately bad for Boko Haram, but even worse for Hausas.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/wo...athy.html?_r=1KANO, Nigeria — In an imam’s quiet office, two young men in long hooded robes, their faces hidden by checked scarves, calmly described their deadly war against the Nigerian state
he office door was open. Children from the Koranic school adjoining the mosque streamed past, laughing and jostling. Worshipers from the evening prayer service, which the young men had just left, poured into the parking lot. If the police had been alerted in any way, the two young men would have been instantly arrested, or worse. But neither appeared nervous about possible betrayal.
“It is not the people of Nigeria, it is only the army and the police who are against us,” said one of the men, explaining their membership in Boko Haram, the militant group that has claimed responsibility for killing hundreds in its battle against the Nigerian government. “Millions of people in Kano State are supporting us.”
His bravado notwithstanding, the violent Islamist army operating out of these dusty alleyways, ready to lash out and quickly fade back, is deeply enmeshed in the fabric of life in this sprawling metropolis, succored by an uneasy mix of fear and sympathy among the millions of impoverished people here.
Boko Haram Kills Policeman in Kaduna
This is an insurrection.
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/...kaduna/110103/Gunmen suspected to be members of the Islamic sect Boko Haram Saturday killed a policeman and made away with his gun.
A vulcaniser who was said to be repairing a tyre for the bike belonging to the policeman was also shot when he raised the alarm.
The incident took place along Samaru Road close to Excel Universal College in Kakuri area of Kaduna at about 5pm.
Eye witness account said the two gunmen came on a bike and shot the policeman twice before snatching his gun.
They also shot the vulcaniser who started shouting before speeding off on the bike. The policeman was said to have died on the spot while the vulcaniser was rushed to the Kakuti General Hospital where he was said to be receiving treatment.
The incident was said to have caused panic among residents of the area as many people ran for their dear lives while shops around the area were immediately closed.
Officers and men of the Kaduna State security outfit, Operation Yaki, who were deployed to the area however refused to comment on the issue.
Spokesman of the Kaduna State Police, Aminu Lawan , nonetheless confirmed the incident, saying investigations were on to get the culprits.
Actually, the Inga dams have been around for quite some time. Back in the day when the Americans were running it, there was never a power outage and sufficient power available that it could even be exported.
If you want to blend in, take the bus
I've been tracking Western involvement in Africa since independence (wasn't born then - but had access to the literature).Actually, the Inga dams have been around for quite some time. Back in the day when the Americans were running it, there was never a power outage and sufficient power available that it could even be exported.
The last time the West was serious about funding infrastructure in Africa was in the sixties and seventies (when the Inga Dam was built). When Reagan and Thatcher came along with their bone-headed "Structural Adjustment Programmes", infrastructure was de-emphasised and the only thing that mattered was (a) bankers in New York and London had their loans repaid and (b) the non-existent private sector in Africa would fund infrastructure and social spending.
By the late nineties, it was clear to both the World Bank and the IMF that the Structural Adjustment Programmes were a total disaster. (Urban incomes in Nigeria declined by 90% within a decade!). So, the policies were changed to reverse the rise infant mortality, drop in school enrollment and collapse of the social sector - the market wasn't king after all.
(This is not to say that African politicians do not share a major part of the blame, but there is no point designing policies on the assumption that African politicians would behave like Swedish and Norwegian politicians).
That is why a lot of social welfare orientated programmes were initiated in the nineties. (Bono, Tony Blair, Clinton come to mind).
Private sector participation worked splendidly in the provision of telecommunications infrastructure - you can get excellent mobile phone reception in Somalia and even Al Shabab has a vested interest in ensuring that mobile phones work. However, there was still a reluctance to invest in or even provide loans to fund massive infrastructure projects.
And this was when Chinese first showed interest in funding infrastructure. After the Liberian Civil War, Ellen Sirleaf-Johnson approached the West for assistance in rebuilding Liberia. She was told that we don't do infrastructure, so she met the Chinese, and the Chinese are still there.
It is in reaction to Chinese activities in Africa that Western agencies are showing interest in infrastructure projects, but please note that (a) news reports of Western involvement wildly overestimate the enthusiasm levels and (b) the West doesn't have much money to throw around these days, anway.
It is instructive to note that the Bui dam (along with 90% of the other major hydro-electric projects in Africa) are being financed by the Chinese. The Chinese can give me loans at LIBOR plus 2.5% with an extended grace period and let me pay using my cotton exports. On the other hand, the West insists on commercial rates. It is a no-brainer (for both well run and incompetently run African governments).
Secondly, there are no Chinese friends of the water, or water for life type environmental NGOs. Before the first piece of earth is moved, these organisations will be shouting for the project to halt. No Western company can withstand that kind of negative publicity, so they pull out almost immediately.
So while there will be a lot of noise in the Western media about participation in the "Greater Inga dam", it will be financed by the Chinese, as usual.
Suicide car bomber kills 3 outside Nigeria church
Boko Haram again, this time in Jos, a city with a history of violent religious crisis.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-w...eria-violence/JOS, Nigeria — A suicide car bomber detonated his explosives outside a major church Sunday, killing three people and wounding 38 others in a restive central Nigerian city that has seen hundreds die in religious and ethnic violence.
The explosion struck the main headquarters of the Church of Christ in Nigeria during its early morning service, Plateau state spokesman Pam Ayuba said. The attack killed a woman, and a father and his child near the explosion, Ayuba said.
The bomber apparently ran down the woman while racing his car toward the church compound, said Mark Lipdo, a coordinator for a Christian group called the Stefanos Foundation. The blast left shattered glass all over the church compound, as an angry crowd of youths began smashing the windows of cars passing by the scene, witnesses said.
Emergency officials took 38 people to hospitals for treatment, said Yushau Shuaib, a spokesman with Nigeria's National Emergency Management Agency.
Police officials in the city could not be immediately reached for comment. A military spokesman for the area said officials would brief journalists late Sunday.
No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, though a radical Islamist sect known as Boko Haram has launched increasingly bloody attacks across Nigeria, including attacks on churches. A Christmas Day bombing of a Catholic church that left at least 44 dead was claimed by the sect in Madalla, a town just outside the country's capital of Abuja.
The group also claimed responsibility for bomb attacks on Christmas Eve that struck Jos, killing as many as 80 people.
A little more about dams in Africa
The Wikipedia entry on the Bui dam is quite instructive. (Remember that Ghana is one of the better run nations in Africa).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bui_DamAn international call for tender was issued, but only a single company submitted a bid and the tender was cancelled. In 2005 the Chinese company Sinohydro submitted an unsolicited bid for the dam together with funding from the Chinese Exim Bank. The government accepted the bid and the Ministry of Energy signed contracts for an environmental impact assessment in December 2005, as well as for an updated feasibility study in October 2007. In August 2007 the government created the Bui Power Authority to oversee the construction of the dam and the associated resettlement, as well as to operate the dam and power plant. The responsibility for the dam was thus taken away from the Volta River Authority, which until then had been responsible for the development and operation of all power projects in Ghana.
Worshippers Kill Suspected Fleeing Church Bomber
Rough justice immediately delivered. The Jos people are just as violent as anyone else. Let's pray Jos doesn't descend into another orgy of killings and reprisal killings.
Heard there was a debate to hand him over to the police, but it seems no one there trusted the police enough to think that (a) he would be charged or (b) any useful intelligence would come out of it.
That's one of the problems of dealing with an insurgency in a very weak state. Recall that Pakistan has at least half a million men in uniform - Nigeria has barely sixty thousand in the army.
http://www.leadership.ng/nga/article...ch_bomber.htmlAngry worshippers at the headquarters of Church Of Christ In Nations (COCIN) in Jos on Sunday killed one of the two suspected bearers of the explosives that hit the Church in the morning.
The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) reports that the bomber and one other, who both wore army camouflage, drove into the Church and beat the security before hitting the building.
NAN correspondent, who was at the scene, reports that the suspect appeared to be in his early 30s.
The suspect, who wore a neatly carved moustache, looked well-fed.
But probably afraid of dying, the bomb carrier jumped out of the vehicle just before the blast went off and attempted to run but could not move as he was affected by the blast.
The angry worshipers, however, descended on him and clubbed him to death.
An eyewitness and a worshipper in the Church, Joyce Dalyop, told NAN that there were arguments among the worshipers over what to do with the bomber before he was finally killed.
``Immediately they (bombers) entered the Church, one of them jumped out of the black jeep but luck ran out of him as the explosion affected him and so he could not run very fast before he was caught.’’
``Some people even pleaded that he should not be killed; they suggested that he should be handed over to Police for further investigation, but others argued that the police could not be trusted and opined that the suspect may be released,” she said.
KJ,
Appreciate your able commentary and heartfelt observations.
If I recall correctly you are a McKinsey/Management Consultancy Veteran and MBA holder? Civil Engineer on this end with a MBA, who has soldiered, and a sometimes fan of Dr Sachs...whooptie, not a brag just presented as a baseline for a point of view/origin comparison. Futhermore I have never lived in or visited Africa, nor do I really track events there.
Nonetheless let's discuss some of your points...
So, if the market is not the best answer out of a universe of tough answers, and i say this genuinely, what then is the answer? I have been seriously looking for answers, to the human condition, in the middle east, central america, europe, and of course America.
You have provided the example of the telecommunications industry (dare i say market) as an organizing force for good/hope/actualization?
Business, engineering, and soldiering have impressed upon me the importance of geography. With the vast distances that comprise Africa...am i on target to suggest that since ideas/information as a 'product' are not bound by the common constraints of volume & weight costs imposed by the market upon traditional physical products (commodities, finished products, etc), the 'cost of ideas/information' are thus perhaps an indicator as to why the wireless telecommunications industry thrives in Africa? Dr Sachs makes a number of interesting observations & arguments regarding the benefits and limitations of of geography in his book The End of Poverty (prescriptions and observations which are not limited to Africa) as does David S. Landes in his book The Wealth and Poverty of Nations.
So given this argument why does the East spend money on infrastructure in Africa while the west does not?
My observations of state owned enterprises reflect the view that they are very inefficient when viewed through traditional business prisms of cost & benefit, but that they are not necessarily set up for traditional 'business benefits'...instead social benefits and other benefits (geostrategic?) seem to trump the 'hard-nosed-business-analysis' that you and i may be more familiar with. Current business organization trends in the East and West seem to reflect a greater preference for SOE's in the East than in the West (although there are of course exceptions to this...Fannie Mae, Freddi Mac, Sallie Mae, the TVA, etc)
I wonder if examining the rise/connection of European city-states over time would add to the conversation?
Sapere Aude
The East sees Africa a lot differently from the West and the needs of the East are different from the needs of the West.So given this argument why does the East spend money on infrastructure in Africa while the west does not?
All the West really needs from Africa is energy (Oil and Gas). Since the West really isn't into the high-volume, low-value manufacturing that requires a lot of iron ore, cotton, tin, copper and other commodities, it has little need for or desire to expand its footprint in Africa.
The Western strategy is four-fold (a) secure Oil and Gas supplies (b) ensure that the humanitarian situation is kept at a tolerable level - most ex-colonial powers don't want to be swamped with asylum seekers from their former colonies (c) limit the spread of public health challenges like AIDS (a lot of money is being spent to ensure that the AIDS epidemic in Africa doesn't spill over to the West and (d) limit the spread of terrorism.
The West doesn't really see Africa as being economically viable, not now and not even in the next thirty years.
On the other hand, the East sees Africa differently and their developmental model is different. The Chinese are leveraging on their thirty-year experience of economic transformation:
1. China was a poor vast nation rich in natural resources requiring infrastructure. The Japanese struck a deal with the Chinese - give us Oil and other commodities and we'll provide funding for infrastructure. The Chinese agreed and it worked.
Many Chinese deals in Africa are structured like the first deals the Chinese struck with the Japanese.
2. Cross the river by feeling for the stones as opposed to IMF/World Bank shock therapy. The Chinese economic transformation took off in Shenzhen - special economic zone. What worked in Shenzhen was applied to Guangzhou, then Shanghai, then Beijing and finally to the Western regions of China. Contrast this with the disastrous shock therapy treatment in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and Russia and you'll realise there is some wisdom in the Chinese approach.
The African coast is dotted with planned special economic zones.
China sees Africa as a potential market. On the other hand, West has never seen Africa as a potential market -not now and certainly not during the colonial era, Africa was merely a source for commodities which were processed into finished goods and traded with other developed economies.
Since much of what the West obtains from Africa is Oil and Gas, the presence of an vibrant middle class is seen more in terms politics/diplomacy than economics. The Chinese, on the other hand, have a lot they wish to sell to Africans (mobile phones, VCRs, clothes, motorcycles, petrol-driven generators etc), so they are very enthusiastic about raising living standards in Africa.
I've never been a fan of Jeffery Sachs and the rest of the development glitterati. (I can't stand Nicholas Kristof). None of these people are businessmen or have run a business, they write a lot of good sounding theory, but they are relatively unknown to most Africans, and frankly speaking have very little impact on what happens in the ground.
I prefer to read Dambisa Moyo and William Easterly.
If the West can take any lessons away from Iraq, Afghanistan and fifty years of Western assisted development efforts in Africa, it is that the West doesn't know how to do development and development is best left to professionals like the Singaporeans and the Chinese. If you had anyone who oversaw the transformation of Victorian England around with us today, or anyone who oversaw the opening of Western US - then you could compete with the Chinese. Since these people are long dead and buried, the best course of action is to pick the brains of the proteges of Lee Kuan Yew and Deng Xiaoping - they are still alive.
Rwanda, one of Africa's best run nations, is swarming with Singaporeans. I suspect Kagame really listens to the Singaporeans (who prefer that everything is kept quiet) and only listens to the likes of Sachs because of aid funding.
Finally, about Telecommunications (I actually did my masters degree in Telecom Engineering), there was a technology revolution and since the media is wireless, not wired, infrastructure costs were low (and falling by the year). These conditions do not yet exist in power generation and distribution (no wireless power transmission yet) or road construction. If there is a technological breakthrough in solar energy, things could change drastically, but that still leads us with roads.
Consequently, the barriers to entry are lower, initial investment required is smaller, risks are lower and payback period is much shorter. There was also a well-defined business model. You can't say that about power generation and road construction.
Interestingly, China offers a business model for road construction. A good proportion of expressways in China are toll roads, so the Government incurs less debt in road construction. This model is already being tried in Lagos, Nigeria and could be exported to the rest of Africa.
**I'm not a McKinsey person - I worked at KPMG and Accenture.
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks