'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[KingJaja]

My observations of state owned enterprises reflect the view that they are very inefficient when viewed through traditional business prisms of cost & benefit, but that they are not necessarily set up for traditional 'business benefits'...instead social benefits and other benefits (geostrategic?) seem to trump the 'hard-nosed-business-analysis' that you and i may be more familiar with. Current business organization trends in the East and West seem to reflect a greater preference for SOE's in the East than in the West (although there are of course exceptions to this...Fannie Mae, Freddi Mac, Sallie Mae, the TVA, etc)

The biggest SOE in the World (apart from the Peoples Liberation Army) is actually the NHS (National Health Service) of Britain. How would you classify Airbus?

So it is not only the East that is in the business of SOEs, Europe does a lot of it. The US likes to pretend that it isn't in that business (but that's a topic for another day).

The most important question is whether SOEs can work in Africa, I doubt it. The organisational and professional culture is lacking.

[KingJaja]

So, if the market is not the best answer out of a universe of tough answers, and i say this genuinely, what then is the answer? I have been seriously looking for answers, to the human condition, in the middle east, central america, europe, and of course America.

Let me explain what I meant. You go to a nation with very low human capital indices, absolutely no private sector and very poor organisational culture. You go there and say - you must privatise and privatise by this time tomorrow!

That is exactly what IMF/World Bank shock therapy was all about. In Russia, KGB gangsters took over the commanding heights of the economy. In Nigeria, former generals and their cronies took over the economy. The end result of this process is not a strengthening of institutions or a rise in living standards or even an efficient market, because there was no market in place to start with.

That is exactly why the Thatcher/Reagan consensus was such a bone-headed concept and the effects are still with us today.

On the other hand, crossing the river by feeling for the stones gives both operators and regulators ample to learn from their mistakes before going live.

I prefer that you take a concept, try it out in a test area, if it works there apply it to the rest of the country. If it doesn't junk it. Not all cultures adapt easily to capitalism, not all cultures are entrepreneurial.

Economic policy is more of an art than a science.

[Chowing]

Kingjaja said,

If the West can take any lessons away from Iraq, Afghanistan and fifty years of Western assisted development efforts in Africa, it is that the West doesn't know how to do development and development is best left to professionals like the Singaporeans and the Chinese.

I agree. Americans have good hearts, want to help and even put some effort and a lot of funds into trying to help, but they are not very good at it at all. However, I do not agree the the Singaporeans and Chinese are are best. They come in and run the entire projects, often from top to bottom, supplying experts and labor. They do not have long enough track record for me to agree that they understand development or are any better than others. I am speaking specifically of their contribution to Africa. Yes, they have left behind railways, ports and roads that have indeed upgraded the infrastructure, yet they have not left behind knowledgeable, experienced Africans who can duplicate what they have done.

Real development must be reproducible by locals. Mot foreigner development leaders are either too unwittingly arrogant or lack trust in the locals. Mistakes are a great way to learn, but most foreign development folks are afraid of failure, they feel the need to justify to their donors that everything the spend goes toward success. They claim short term success and leave, not leaving behind much that can be reproduced.

Kingjaja also said,

Finally, about Telecommunications (I actually did my masters degree in Telecom Engineering), there was a technology revolution and since the media is wireless, not wired, infrastructure costs were low (and falling by the year).

Herein, is where I think a new era for Africa is coming. There is a new generation of young Africans who, like their counter parts around the globe, have been raised around mobile technology. They understand it and have already made some major contributions in terms of mobile apps that make real differences. Examples are Sudan Vote Monitor (grass roots reporting of polling problems reported via cell app), Kilimo Salama (cell phone based crop insurance scheme), and pedigree (cell based app for verifying quality of meds purchased in markets).

I know that mobile technology will not answer all ills that bring about poverty, yet it will IMHO, bring up, in fact is bringing up a generation of young African entrepreneurs who are confident and will continue to branch into other areas.

[KingJaja]

I agree. Americans have good hearts, want to help and even put some effort and a lot of funds into trying to help, but they are not very good at it at all. However, I do not agree the the Singaporeans and Chinese are are best. They come in and run the entire projects, often from top to bottom, supplying experts and labor. They do not have long enough track record for me to agree that they understand development or are any better than others. I am speaking specifically of their contribution to Africa. Yes, they have left behind railways, ports and roads that have indeed upgraded the infrastructure, yet they have not left behind knowledgeable, experienced Africans who can duplicate what they have done.

Real development must be reproducible by locals. Mot foreigner development leaders are either too unwittingly arrogant or lack trust in the locals. Mistakes are a great way to learn, but most foreign development folks are afraid of failure, they feel the need to justify to their donors that everything the spend goes toward success. They claim short term success and leave, not leaving behind much that can be reproduced.

I would have agreed with you if all I depended on was news reports from the Western media. However, the reality is a bit more complex than that - the involvement Nigerian engineers and technicians in the Chinese-funded satellite project, the proliferation of manufacturing joint-ventures between Nigerian and Chinese businessmen and the impressive training offered by Chinese companies like Huawei to Nigerians (my sister-in-law went for long training sessions at Shenzhen) flies in the face of conventional wisdom.

Square this with the recent directive by the Nigerian government that Western Oil and Gas companies should employ suitably qualified Nigerians (which are not in short supply) as opposed to employing more expensive expatriates.

Secondly, working with the Chinese, you don't get the feeling that you are working with a bunch of "know-it all's" . We tend to have a better grasp of areas like financial management, human resources and even some aspects of information systems and project management, so they are willing to learn. You can see Nigerian banks offering training to the Chinese counterparts - and the Chinese are willing to learn, lower costs and less hassles.

[KingJaja]

Just to add.

Have you heard about Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing? It is a joint venture between a Nigerian Industrialist and Wuling of China - they assemble buses and motorcycles and manufacture plastics. They want to go into tyre manufacturing (Nigerian has an abundance of rubber).

A lot of technology transfer is taking place in organisations like Innoson and Dangote Cement (which has a technical partnership with Sinoma).

I am told that the Buddhist concept of charity differs from the Western concept and that the Buddhist concept of charity is to build bridges and fix roads for strangers to aid them on a smooth and safe journey. That difference is reflected in the approach the Chinese, South Koreans and Japanese adopt in Africa. We all know how the Western concept of charity is implemented and how it affects development policy, but who am I to say that one concept is superior to the other?

(Just to add, LG electronics of Korea and my local state government recently partnered on a technical academy and electronic training center).

[Stan]

I don't want to get into a pissin' contest over why MB left Nigeria and why the West is squeamish, and why the Chinese prosper, But, Innoson was just recently looking for a N150 billion bail-out.

You're correct, the Chinese are ready to invest without risk and the West bows out.

Not the success story it portrays unless we feel operating at 10 percent of installed capacity is a good thing.

BTW, LG nearly went bankrupt over here with returns and warranties.

EDIT: Take a look at how many Chinese tanks and vehicles that lay dormant in the DRC and what most of the West concluded (as if they had some say in the matters):
The challenge for other African countries is to develop a clear vision for sustainable development which should form the foundation for constructive engagement with China.

There is no evidence of sustainable development IMO.

[KingJaja]

Innoson did not seek a 150 billion naira bailout, all the local automakers sought a bailout together (just like GM and Ford). Similarly, the textile mills sought for and obtained a bailout.

As to why MB left Nigeria, MB was involved in an unprofitable joint venture arrangement with local state governments and the Federal Government. An attempt was made to sell the plant at Enugu, but it was marred in controversies. As for Peugeot, it was clear as early as the nineties that they ran an unsustainable business model. They kept on banging out old models (like the 504) that couldn't compete against second hand Toyotas for fuel efficiency and cost.

On the other hand, Innoson is a fully private venture and if it fails, it fails alone, the dynamics are different here. Many private ventures have failed here and in America - that's the nature of capitalism. If Dangote fails in cement production, then he fails, but if he succeeds he will teach a new generation of Nigerian entrepreneurs that it is possible to succeed in manufacturing in the African continent.

The success or failure of both Innoson and/or Dangote will be closely linked to the Chinese.

Secondly, a common dismissive retort I get from Westerners is we tried this in the sixties and seventies and failed, so the Chinese are bound to fail. Let me remind you that:

1. The human capital development situation in the sixties and seventies is much different from what obtains today. For example, in South-Eastern Nigeria, literacy rates in the sixties were about 19%, today they are about 90% in some areas and we have hundreds of thousands of people with some college education.

2. Secondly, we must have learned something from the mistakes of the sixties and seventies. If you insist we haven't, please explain that to me - with solid evidence not hearsay or speculation.

3. Western involvement in Africa has been driven by a lack of consistency and rapidly shifting development goals - that doesn't mean that the Chinese will follow suit. In the sixties and seventies it was industrial development and import substitution, in the eighties and nineties it was structural adjustment programs. Today it is the Millennium Development Goals. There is a new development paradigm every decade - the surest sign that development efforts are doomed to failure.

Western development efforts, in many cases, were not even guided by good sense. A typical example was the fish processing plant established by a certain Scandinavian nation in an area populated by herders!

4. I have gently tried to remind you that Nigeria or Africa is not the DRC! Your experience of the DRC in the eighties and nineties gives you a fair understanding of the workings of the African mind, but it doesn't provide you with enough intellectual heft to make an unchallengeable judgment on the situation in Ghana, Kenya or even Nigeria.

The DRC is and was a disaster, even by African standards.

Finally, I don't think that a clear vision for sustainable development will emerge either from African governments, or international aid NGOs or from the Chinese. It will result from trial and error, from increasing involvement of local entrepreneurs like Innocent Chukwuma and Aliko Dangote in the business scene - a process the Chinese seem to be facilitating by providing technical expertise at a competitive cost.

As we speak, most school children in Lagos attend private schools - even the children of drivers and cooks. The private sector has picked the slack where the government was found wanting. Private universities are being established every year in Nigeria and interestingly, the University of Mogadishu is not only in operation, but is thriving.

The growth of the private sector and human capital indices will have an impact on the quality of governance. In Nigeria, one can draw a correlation between the quality of governance and average literacy rates. There is a reason why Boko Haram could emerge in Maiduguri but not in Lagos (even though Lagos has a significant Muslim population).

Look forward to hearing again from you.

[Dayuhan]

then you could compete with the Chinese.

Why would we want to compete with the Chinese? Who ever said there's a competition going on? I don't think the US or "The West" needs to see Chinese engagement as a threat or a challenge in any way... more an opportunity for us to ease out of a pattern of engagement that's involved much expense and little return on investment for anyone but the aid industry. If the Chinese want to deal with it and the Africans are good with that, good on 'em and more power. No need for anything but a sigh of relief on our side.

I am told that the Buddhist concept of charity differs from the Western concept and that the Buddhist concept of charity is to build bridges and fix roads for strangers to aid them on a smooth and safe journey. That difference is reflected in the approach the Chinese, South Koreans and Japanese adopt in Africa. We all know how the Western concept of charity is implemented and how it affects development policy, but who am I to say that one concept is superior to the other?

What does charity have to do with it? The Chinese aren't in Africa to help or provide charity. Everything they do is done to advance their own perceived interests. That's not necessarily a bad thing; interests can be compatible and as long as both sides understand the nature of the relationship an arrangement based on interests is probably more stable and predictable than a charitable relationship.

It may turn out that somewhere down the line interests will diverge... seems likely, but any attempt to foretell the future is speculative by nature. When and if that happens, it will be up to the parties involved to renegotiate the terms of engagement.

Either way, the less the US has to do with it the happier I'll be.

[KingJaja]

Why would we want to compete with the Chinese? Who ever said there's a competition going on? I don't think the US or "The West" needs to see Chinese engagement as a threat or a challenge in any way... more an opportunity for us to ease out of a pattern of engagement that's involved much expense and little return on investment for anyone but the aid industry. If the Chinese want to deal with it and the Africans are good with that, good on 'em and more power. No need for anything but a sigh of relief on our side.

You personally might not want to compete, but your arms, Oil and Gas and "aid" industries (which by the way employ hundreds of thousands of people), see competition with the Chinese as a good way of (a) attracting more government attention and (b) ensuring future growth.

What does charity have to do with it? The Chinese aren't in Africa to help or provide charity. Everything they do is done to advance their own perceived interests. That's not necessarily a bad thing; interests can be compatible and as long as both sides understand the nature of the relationship an arrangement based on interests is probably more stable and predictable than a charitable relationship.

Who told you so? Do you have conclusive evidence to support that view or is it true only because you feel it in your gut? There is a lot more to Chinese involvement in Africa than the caricature presented in Western media. We Africans have a better appreciation of the situation on the ground.

They actually do some charity, but they do it differently from the West.

Finally nobody is in Africa primarily for charity, no one, not even the morally upright and ever righteous United States.

[KingJaja]

The leader of the Nigerian Christian Association is advocating that Nigerians should be allowed to carry guns. Before you accuse him of being "anti-Christian", please read this scripture:

But now, whoever has a money belt is to take it along, likewise also a bag, and whoever has no sword is to sell his coat and buy one.” (Luke 22:36 NASB)

This is exactly the kind of problem that opponents of Sharia law like myself envisaged. You cannot create an environment in which one religious tradition is favoured over another and expect the other religious tradition not to demand its "own space" in Nigerian politics. This is just the beginning, I expect to see references to St. Augustine's City of God or Theory of Just War or the theology of Bonhoeffer or any theology that supports a more militant expression of Christianity.

Let me remind us, that Nigeria is not Egypt and Nigerian Christians are not Copts. The last time Sharia was tried in a multi-ethnic, multi-religious nation, it left that nation divided. That should be a cautionary tale.

Many people believe that the Federal government of Nigeria is clueless on how to effectively solve the problem and security threat poised by the Islamic terror group Boko Haram, the President of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor isn’t left in that kind of conscious thought as he as made a call to President Goodluck to allow every Nigerian arm themselves to the tooth, to carry guns, ammunitions for self-protection. This call by the CAN president isn’t unconnected with the recent bombast in Jos that left over 5 people dead and dozens injured .

In his statement made available to the Nigerian Tribune on Monday, He said: “we urge the president, as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, to stop the orgy of ethnic cleansing or accede to recent calls for all Nigerians to carry arms”.

“If the president could no longer guarantee the safety of life and property of Nigerians, in accordance with the oath he took, then the National Assembly should immediately enact a law that would make every Nigerian to carry arms for their own protection”.

The man of God concluded that the country was deliberately moving towards its total collapse in 2015 as predicted by an American prophecy.

What do you think? Does the bible allow for such vengence or has the Pastor gone too far??

http://www.newsnaija.com/allow-every...jonathan/1772/

[Stan]

Innoson did not seek a 150 billion naira bailout, all the local automakers sought a bailout together (just like GM and Ford). Similarly, the textile mills sought for and obtained a bailout.

Oops, my bad !

As to why MB left Nigeria, MB was involved in an unprofitable joint venture arrangement with local state governments and the Federal Government. An attempt was made to sell the plant at Enugu, but it was marred in controversies. As for Peugeot, it was clear as early as the nineties that they ran an unsustainable business model. They kept on banging out old models (like the 504) that couldn't compete against second hand Toyotas for fuel efficiency and cost.

Sounds very similar to Sub-Sahara although MB never ran out of business with over 300 Zairian government officials needing their own black MB The Peugeot 504 was the worst car I ever had the pleasure to drive but yet so cheap that they were everywhere. The taxation on new and used cars from Europe meant almost no imports. Only the NGOs drove Land Cruisers !

Secondly, a common dismissive retort I get from Westerners is we tried this in the sixties and seventies and failed, so the Chinese are bound to fail. Let me remind you that:

You won't hear that from me and I doubt for all the reasons Dayuhan lists, that the Chinese will outright fail. They do business on a totally different level and will be only too happy to snap up what the West doesn't. The day may come when they've had their fill, or, when the resources run out.

2. Secondly, we must have learned something from the mistakes of the sixties and seventies. If you insist we haven't, please explain that to me - with solid evidence not hearsay or speculation.

I assume Nigeria has come a long way since the 70s. With perhaps two exceptions (The Ivory Coast and Rwanda) none of the other seven countries I worked in has progressed beyond 1984.

3. Western involvement in Africa has been driven by a lack of consistency and rapidly shifting development goals - that doesn't mean that the Chinese will follow suit. In the sixties and seventies it was industrial development and import substitution, in the eighties and nineties it was structural adjustment programs. Today it is the Millennium Development Goals. There is a new development paradigm every decade - the surest sign that development efforts are doomed to failure.

During my time our involvement was driven by the Cold War and little else. The only thing rapid was when a new president was elected or when we were faced with a continuing resolution The Chinese love to fiddle and build stuff - I don't have any problems with them doing that. What I don't care for is their most favored nation status and the cheap stuff they produce and export. Personal thing of mine !

4. I have gently tried to remind you that Nigeria or Africa is not the DRC! Your experience of the DRC in the eighties and nineties gives you a fair understanding of the workings of the African mind, but it doesn't provide you with enough intellectual heft to make an unchallengeable judgment on the situation in Ghana, Kenya or even Nigeria.

The DRC is and was a disaster, even by African standards.

I don't expect to go unchallenged - that's the whole reason I'm here (and to learn something along the way !) You, I assume expect the same. As I have yet to even visit the countries you mentioned, I can only go on my instincts and what I read. The rest must come from people like you. I've returned to many of my former countries and may be heading for the Ivory Coast soon. So most of what I post is based on relatively recent information, not just from the 90s.

Finally, I don't think that a clear vision for sustainable development will emerge either from African governments, or international aid NGOs or from the Chinese. It will result from trial and error, from increasing involvement of local entrepreneurs like Innocent Chukwuma and Aliko Dangote in the business scene - a process the Chinese seem to be facilitating by providing technical expertise at a competitive cost.

The Western mind there suggests that the African host country develops a clear picture for sustainable development. The same sage advice could be recommended when dealing with the West. But fair to say, back then, that didn't happen and the dictator could have cared less.

As we speak, most school children in Lagos attend private schools - even the children of drivers and cooks. The private sector has picked the slack where the government was found wanting. Private universities are being established every year in Nigeria and interestingly, the University of Mogadishu is not only in operation, but is thriving.

The same could have been said for Zaire in the early 80s. Our office drivers both had more than 12 years of education and most of the Zairian officers had college educations. The private schools were also there, the locals just could not afford the tuition costs. I don't know anyone that doesn't care about their children's education - even in Africa. Zaire in the end lost her educational system due to lack of revenues and attractive work abroad. There were no rocket scientists, but there were educated people.

The growth of the private sector and human capital indices will have an impact on the quality of governance. In Nigeria, one can draw a correlation between the quality of governance and average literacy rates. There is a reason why Boko Haram could emerge in Maiduguri but not in Lagos (even though Lagos has a significant Muslim population).

An intriguing conclusion you've drawn. There are several places with high literacy rates and good governance, but yet, criminal and terrorist acts still prevail and persist. I believe that BH can't operate in Lagos due in large part to a lack of a support base. The Muslim population may be quite content in Lagos and simply not share the BH's sentiment sufficiently enough to cause or support mayhem.

Look forward to hearing again from you.

To you the same - back at ya !

[Stan]

The leader of the Nigerian Christian Association is advocating that Nigerians should be allowed to carry guns. Before you accuse him of being "anti-Christian", please read this scripture:

The Father at the Catholic school I attended was an avid shooter and sportsman. While I never asked him what he would have done if the situation should come, it occurred to me he would have protected himself.
When the gun carry laws changed in Virginia, the crime rate declined. Criminals don't like it when their victims are equally armed

Here's an interesting article from a priest:

One gun-carrying priest: 'I tell people all life is sacred, including mine'

[KingJaja]

The same could have been said for Zaire in the early 80s. Our office drivers both had more than 12 years of education and most of the Zairian officers had college educations. The private schools were also there, the locals just could not afford the tuition costs. I don't know anyone that doesn't care about their children's education - even in Africa. Zaire in the end lost her educational system due to lack of revenues and attractive work abroad. There were no rocket scientists, but there were educated people.

Unlike in Zaire, private schools in Lagos are generally affordable, that's why I mentioned that drivers and cooks send their children there. Parents have more faith in private schools even though teachers there are paid less than teachers in government schools. A British university did an interesting study on private schools in Lagos.

**There are private schools that cater to different socio-economic classes. When I take a one kilometer walk from my house to a bus-stop, I am surprised at the number of private schools on every street.

MB wasn't in the business of assembling cars in Nigeria (they have standards). They assembled trucks and buses.

There are African nations and there are African nations. A back of the beyond nation like the Central African Republic with a population of a few millions isn't a barometer of what the future of Africa will be.

Africa has it's key nations like Kenya (followed by Ethiopia and Tanzania) in East Africa. Nigeria (and to a lesser extent Ghana, Senegal and Cote D'Ivoire) in West Africa. South Africa (and to a lesser extent Angola) for the South and the North African nations. The success or failure of these nations will largely determine the success or failure of the rest of Africa.

For example, the success of South Sudan as an economic entity is largely dependent on how quickly it can integrate its economy with the economy of the East African region. Interestingly, the Kenyans seem to be quite enthusiastic about getting that pipeline done.

So if your experience of Africa has been limited to a few second-tier nations, you may not have an accurate picture of what is going on.

I see the Cold War as a wasted opportunity. However, countries like Nigeria and Ghana were officially non-aligned, so the dynamics you observed in Congo didn't really apply to us in Nigeria. There wasn't an all-out, zero-sum competition between the West, the Soviets and the Chinese for the attention of the ruling class. It was business and the business was less flavoured by competition or ideology.

Nyerere, who was in power around the same time in Mobutu and was well-intentioned attracted both the West, the Chinese and the Soviets. MacNamara (who was World Bank president at that time) fell in love with him, and the advice MacNamara offered Nyerere in the seventies was different from the prescriptions offered by the Reagan/Thatcher group. So my point about shifting priorities still holds.

[KingJaja]

The Father at the Catholic school I attended was an avid shooter and sportsman. While I never asked him what he would have done if the situation should come, it occurred to me he would have protected himself.
When the gun carry laws changed in Virginia, the crime rate declined. Criminals don't like it when their victims are equally armed

In Kano, the outsiders live in the stranger's quarters - Sabon Gari. Kano has a long history of violence against strangers and non-Muslims. In 1991, there was a particularly bad case of anti-Christian violence after an Evangelical preacher was invited there. Many people were killed.

The non-indigenes learned their lesson. They stocked up on guns and ammunition, so when the next round of anti-Christian fury was unleashed there was hell to pay.

Even Boko Haram has learned to leave Sabon-Gari alone.

[Stan]

So if your experience of Africa has been limited to a few second-tier nations, you may not have an accurate picture of what is going on.

"You're only as strong as your weakest link" - something the Army drills into you. My relatively speaking limited view tells me that those weak links will be everybody's problem. If I gauge the entire continent's success on 3 or 4 success stories, I'd be naive at best. The more accurate picture floating around in my mind spells disaster regardless of how educated and successful your neighbors may be. That's just my opinion however and you are certainly entitled to yours.

Nyerere, who was in power around the same time in Mobutu and was well-intentioned attracted both the West, the Chinese and the Soviets. MacNamara (who was World Bank president at that time) fell in love with him, and the advice MacNamara offered Nyerere in the seventies was different from the prescriptions offered by the Reagan/Thatcher group. So my point about shifting priorities still holds.

To compare Julius Nyerere to Mobutu in any period of time is a long shot. One a farmer and the other a dictator, one relatively successful and the other a total waste of time. I can't see your point using these two gentlemen to strike a comparison. The West's priorities in the 70s and 80s shifted with the new administrations. Then there's Clinton Obama was to save the whole planet - a bit too much ambition knowing he would have to sell that Sierra to congress and the American public. Wait for the shift in priorities when they reduce the US Military.

[Stan]

... so when the next round of anti-Christian fury was unleashed there was hell to pay.

Even Boko Haram has learned to leave Sabon-Gari alone.

Apparently BH is not invincible and has already demonstrated their lack of desire to hit hard targets. This last church bombing didn't go well and soon Christian churches will be "hard targets". While some may argue that a Catholic priest should not carry a firearm nor recommend doing so, I think the priest is the perfect conduit to eventually saving lives and getting people energized. I doubt Johnathan will allow every Nigerian to carry a gun, but the priest's words alone will create an uncomfortable atmosphere for the BH crowd.

[tequila]

I doubt Johnathan will allow every Nigerian to carry a gun, but the priest's words alone will create an uncomfortable atmosphere for the BH crowd.

I quite disagree. What BH, or rather the myriad of groups that the Nigerian and Western press calls BH, wants is what AQI wanted - sectarian civil war in Nigeria, leading to the disintegration of the Nigerian state.

They want sectarian attacks by Christians on Muslims - this will only radicalize the undecided middle and drive them away from traditional leaders into the arms of BH.

[KingJaja]

"You're only as strong as your weakest link" - something the Army drills into you. My relatively speaking limited view tells me that those weak links will be everybody's problem. If I gauge the entire continent's success on 3 or 4 success stories, I'd be naive at best. The more accurate picture floating around in my mind spells disaster regardless of how educated and successful your neighbors may be. That's just my opinion however and you are certainly entitled to yours.

Its also an engineering principle. A structure is only as strong as its weakest member.

Having said that, nations are not armies or machinery. Many African nations are land-locked and there is practically nothing they can do unless their neighbours with access to the coast get up an running. Also relatively small nations with much larger neighbours will fall and rise with the economies of their larger neighbours. It is true in Europe and true in North America (Mexico and Canada depend heavily on the US economy).

I mentioned the Central African Republic. It is right in the geographical centre of Africa and surrounded by some terrible neighbours - DRC, South Sudan, Chad, Cameroun. There is absolutely nothing that the CAR can do to lift its economy without cooperating with at least one neighbour with access to the coast - and that leaves Cameroun (DRC is out of the question).

That is why you really need to examine economic trends of key nations to get a good picture of what is going in Africa.

[KingJaja]

I quite disagree. What BH, or rather the myriad of groups that the Nigerian and Western press calls BH, wants is what AQI wanted - sectarian civil war in Nigeria, leading to the disintegration of the Nigerian state.

They want sectarian attacks by Christians on Muslims - this will only radicalize the undecided middle and drive them away from traditional leaders into the arms of BH.

It is not that easy. Most of the nation's wealth is near the coast, far away from the Muslim heartland. There is a strong Muslim merchant and political elite who understand that (a) a future Muslims only state in Northern Nigeria will look a lot like the Republic of Niger and that (b) it will be extremely difficult for Al Qaeda (or whatever it is called) to unseat the central government.

Now the central government dispenses patronage and if one takes up arms against the central government as fails in the attempt, then your access to the lucrative patronage networks is automatically terminated.

And the Southern elite would only rub their chubby hands with glee.

So this isn't Iraq and it is difficult to see a situation in which the local emirs are cowered into acceding to the demands of BH like the Iraqi Sunni tribal chiefs who were intimidated into supporting AQ.

There are also eighty million Christians here.

[Stan]

I quite disagree. What BH, or rather the myriad of groups that the Nigerian and Western press calls BH, wants is what AQI wanted - sectarian civil war in Nigeria, leading to the disintegration of the Nigerian state.

They want sectarian attacks by Christians on Muslims - this will only radicalize the undecided middle and drive them away from traditional leaders into the arms of BH.

I'm not sure I agree with you either. When and where did we determine that BH wants what the AQI wanted ? BH's demands in the beginning were quite feeble and the whole thing turned dirty over police brutality when a motorcyclist refused to wear a helmet and was summarily shot !!!

The Christian church plays a significant role in most of Africa, even as far North as the Chadian border with Libya. I suppose the priest could tell his congregation to turn the other cheek, but then it wouldn't be long before he was out of a job. What should he be doing ?