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Thread: 'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Not so paranoid when you consider that there is enough circumstantial evidence to show that Shell was complicit in the murder of prominent Niger Delta activists, but paranoid all the same.
    There are obvious reasons why an oil company would want to dispose of activists seeking greater local control of oil production. What reason would anyone in the west have to support a radical Islamic group with AQ links. The typical Western reaction to those is knee-jerk horror.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    The default position for most Western diplomats and academics is to absolve Islam / Muslims of blame. This is usually dismissed to "liberal brain washing" in the States, but in a multi-ethnic, multi-religious society like Nigeria it is seen as the latest evidence that the West favours Northern Muslims over the rest of the nation.
    First off, the US or "The West" have no business assigning blame or taking sides in an internal Nigerian conflict.

    The idea that the US or "The West" is somehow pro-Muslim is a bit startling, and you'd certainly have a hard time convincing any Muslims that this is the case. There's a bit of neutralist academic/diplomatic blather, but that's not much more than a tepid and generally ineffective attempt to counter the prevailing belief that the US is violently and absolutely anti-Muslim.

    Even beyond the reality that the US has no business assigning blame in other people's conflicts, it would be silly to lay blame for BH (or AQ, or anyone else) on "Islam" or "Muslims" generically. Focus on the target, no use in dissipating resources fighting those you don't have to fight.

    A reasonable desire to avoid any involvement in a conflict that is manifestly none of our business should not be interpreted as support for any side.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    A reasonable desire to avoid any involvement in a conflict that is manifestly none of our business should not be interpreted as support for any side.
    Then how do you explain the vocal opposition to anti-homosexual laws in predominantly Christian Sub-Saharan African countries? How do you explain the fact that Obama and Cameron have expended political capital on this issue and have made it central to the US and the UK's Africa policy.

    African Christians are not dumb, they know these policies target Christian nations like Kenya, Zambia and Uganda. Meanwhile, Muslim nations with even worse laws under Sharia will get a free pass.

    I am not saying that the perception is warranted, but please understand where the perceptions are coming from.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Then how do you explain the vocal opposition to anti-homosexual laws in predominantly Christian Sub-Saharan African countries? How do you explain the fact that Obama and Cameron have expended political capital on this issue and have made it central to the US and the UK's Africa policy.

    African Christians are not dumb, they know these policies target Christian nations like Kenya, Zambia and Uganda. Meanwhile, Muslim nations with even worse laws under Sharia will get a free pass.
    The words in question - there are no policies, only words - do not "target" anyone in Africa, they target a domestic voting bloc. Everybody in Africa will get "a free pass" because the words will never be translated to meaningful action.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    The words in question - there are no policies, only words - do not "target" anyone in Africa, they target a domestic voting bloc. Everybody in Africa will get "a free pass" because the words will never be translated to meaningful action.
    Words actually do matter, even if they don't matter Western politicians. If you read or heard the feedback from Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa over these words, you'll understand what I am talking about.

    This the same way American politicians (especially of the Republican persuasion) believe that their almost Pavlovian response in support of Israel has no impact whatsoever on America's Middle East policy or America's perception in the Muslim World. After all, the only thing that matters is the Evangelical and Jewish vote.

    You warn them about the consequences and then they'll tell you "we'll merely build an embassy the size of the Vatican in Iraq and we'll double our aid commitments to Africa and all will be well".

    The US is still the most influential player in World politics, but the US is fast becoming the "first among equals" not the "hyper-power" it was a mere fifteen years ago (at the height of the Clinton era). Unfortunately, American politicians have not woken up to this reality.

    Look at Iran and how India is openly defying the US on embargoing Iranian fuel imports. For the US to successfully disengage from Afghanistan, it needs the cooperation of Iran, India, Pakistan, Russia and China.

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    Default Huh. Interesting.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    This the same way American politicians (especially of the Republican persuasion) believe that their almost Pavlovian response in support of Israel has no impact whatsoever on America's Middle East policy or America's perception in the Muslim World. After all, the only thing that matters is the Evangelical and Jewish vote.
    You are aware that Harry Truman was the President who recognized Israel, Kennedy arguably encouraged their nuclear program, Lyndon Johnson the one who first provided unfettered and massive support and Jimmy Carter was the one who eased Egypt out of the 'get Israel' camp at least temporarily? Democrats all...

    And yes, as I and others have often noted, rightly or wrongly, US foreign policy is driven by US domestic politics. Always has been and always will be. Instead of bemoaning that fact, scholars and others should imitate some of the smarter nations who have figured that out and react accordingly...
    The US is still the most influential player in World politics, but the US is fast becoming the "first among equals" not the "hyper-power" it was a mere fifteen years ago (at the height of the Clinton era). Unfortunately, American politicians have not woken up to this reality.
    Four points:

    - The US is influential due to its wealth and not to possession of any great acumen or morality. That it is most influential is often a perception issue and is also very much situation or circumstances dependent. Other nations can and do often eclipse the US on selected issues. That is and has always been true.

    - US power was at its height in 1945. It has been declining in uneven and not orderly spurts ever since. The 1990s were absolutely not a high point though the indicators were indeed higher then than they now are. The decline will continue because the world has and is changing in accordance with the times -- as is always true. Nations are not people but age and events change both.

    - No "hyper power" has ever dominated the world stage for long and none is likely to do so, the pressure of other nations to lessen that power will always insure that is the case. That apparent extent of US power in the 90s was due in part to then prevalent economic realities and some judicious exploitation by the US at the time; we got caught, other nations took steps to lessen our ability and our ponderous decline resumes. That 'power ' was greater in the 80s, still greater in the 60s and greatest in the early 50s; been generally downhill since then. Way of the world...

    - Politicians (most, anyway...) have awakened to this phenomenon. However, as they are prone to do, they're fighting hard to maintain the status quo. They will lose that fight, they always do even though they always seems to resist to the point of absurdity. Perhaps that's because politicians are generally absurd...
    Look at Iran and how India is openly defying the US on embargoing Iranian fuel imports. For the US to successfully disengage from Afghanistan, it needs the cooperation of Iran, India, Pakistan, Russia and China.
    Re: India; so what? They want to do something, we voice objections, they do it anyway and we do nothing about that. Both nations are simply acting in their own interest. We have no particular right to dictate to India or any other nation.

    Re: Afghanistan; define successfully...

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    You are aware that Harry Truman was the President who recognized Israel, Kennedy arguably encouraged their nuclear program, Lyndon Johnson the one who first provided unfettered and massive support and Jimmy Carter was the one who eased Egypt out of the 'get Israel' camp at least temporarily? Democrats all...

    And yes, as I and others have often noted, rightly or wrongly, US foreign policy is driven by US domestic politics. Always has been and always will be. Instead of bemoaning that fact, scholars and others should imitate some of the smarter nations who have figured that out and react accordingly...
    I am aware of all that. But Republicans have taken this a step further, the relationship with Israel seems to be less governed by logic than by the Book of Revelations. The atmosphere that has existed since the second Bush presidency makes it impossible for the US to be seen as an honest broker in the Middle East peace process.

    Obama gave a wonderful speech in Cairo in 2009 and Netanyahu (and the Republicans) did their best to frustrate his efforts.

    Re: Afghanistan; define successfully...
    A successful exit from Afghanistan means leaving behind an Afghanistan in which the Taliban will be accommodated in power and in which a resurgence of Al Qaeda is impossible.

    India, Iran and the US have a mutual dislike of the Taliban. Somehow the US believes that an alliance of Americans and Europeans are best placed to deal with the Taliban - there's ten years of experience to prove that assertion wrong. Yet nobody seems to be listening.

    On the other hand, Pakistan and China want to hedge against India and ensure that both Iran and India do not exert undue influence in Afghanistan. So the US should strive to create a balance of power between these rival nations as all these nations are motivated enough to keep the status quo.

    Alternatively, the US could just pack its bags and leave Afghanistan and let Pakistan, Iran, India, China and the Russians deal with them - it's their problem.

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    Default One cannot generally choose one's nieghbors; one can choose a neighborhood.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    ...The atmosphere that has existed since the second Bush presidency makes it impossible for the US to be seen as an honest broker in the Middle East peace process.
    It's been impossible since 1967.

    Don't pay too much attention to what you see or read in US Media -- most here do not...
    Obama gave a wonderful speech in Cairo in 2009 and Netanyahu (and the Republicans) did their best to frustrate his efforts.
    Good politicians always give wonderful speeches. They rarely follow through on them as reality intrudes.

    Just as Obama stated American interests as he saw them, Netanyahu has Israeli interests as he sees them to consider. That's not going to be reconciled.

    The Republicans are far less concerned with Israel or the ME than they are with just being obstacles to anything Obama wants to do in the US (primarily and elsewhere secondarily...).
    A successful exit from Afghanistan means leaving behind an Afghanistan in which the Taliban will be accommodated in power and in which a resurgence of Al Qaeda is impossible.
    That was never a possibility even though many in the rather inept US foreign policy elite thought it could be done.
    India, Iran and the US have a mutual dislike of the Taliban. Somehow the US believes ...there's ten years of experience to prove that assertion wrong. Yet nobody seems to be listening ... ]On the other hand ... Alternatively, the US could just pack its bags and leave Afghanistan and let Pakistan, Iran, India, China and the Russians deal with them - it's their problem.
    Yes. That about sums it up. See my comment just above. We were never going to change that dynamic. Can't change the neighborhood if you don't live there

    And that applies whether one is American, Chinese, Indian, African, etc. etc. ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Words actually do matter, even if they don't matter Western politicians. If you read or heard the feedback from Christians in Sub-Saharan Africa over these words, you'll understand what I am talking about.
    I really don't think they care very much. They're worried about scoring points with a domestic audience, and public opinion in SSA is not high on the list of priorities for American (or British, German, or French) politicians. Ugandans don't vote in their elections.

    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    You warn them about the consequences and then they'll tell you "we'll merely build an embassy the size of the Vatican in Iraq and we'll double our aid commitments to Africa and all will be well".
    Aid commitments to Africa aren't designed to help Africa or achieve popularity in Africa, they're designed to make Americans feel charitable and feel good about themselves. What consequences are there in SSA that matter to Americans?

    I'm sure there are people who will look at the pious verbiage about homophobia in Uganda and somehow conclude that the US is supporting Boko Haram... but really, is it worth trying to persuade anyone capable of stretching reality to that extent? People will believe what they will.
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 03-04-2012 at 12:17 AM.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dayuhan View Post
    I really don't think they care very much. They're worried about scoring points with a domestic audience, and public opinion in SSA is not high on the list of priorities for American (or British, German, or French) politicians. Ugandans don't vote in their elections.



    Aid commitments to Africa aren't designed to help Africa or achieve popularity in Africa, they're designed to make Americans feel charitable and feel good about themselves. What consequences are there in SSA that matter to Americans?

    I'm sure there are people who will look at the pious verbiage about homophobia in Uganda and somehow conclude that the US is supporting Boko Haram... but really, is it worth trying to persuade anyone capable of stretching reality to that extent? People will believe what they will.
    That's not the impression I got from listening to a US House of Rep hearing. They expressed shock that Africans haven't fallen in love with the US given the large amounts of aid poured there.

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    Default Nigerian mob protests army killing of Kano motorcyclist

    There is real anger about the heavy handedness of the Nigerian Military. Let's pray it doesn't transform into something else.

    KANO, Nigeria — An irate mob lit bonfires and marched through the Nigerian city of Kano to protest the alleged shooting to death of a motorcyclist on Sunday by troops deployed to counter Boko Haram Islamists.
    Mustapha Sani, 25, was shot in the head and chest by soldiers at a checkpoint outside a bus terminus, witnesses said.
    Around 100 protesters took over the Silver Jubilee roundabout in the centre of the northern city and marched through the streets, burning tyres and pelting soldiers with stones, an AFP reporter saw.
    They called for the dismantling of military checkpoints in the city.
    The soldiers made no attempt to stop the protesters.
    "This lawlessness is getting out of hand, we are tired of soldiers and policemen killing and molesting innocent residents they are deployed to protect," a protester who gave his name as Haruna said.
    "We live between the fear of Boko Haram attack and military and police bullets, it is unbearable," said Laminu Zakari, another protester.
    The soldiers manning the checkpoints drove off in two military vans to avoid clashes.
    Residents have complained of harassment and extortion by security personnel at checkpoints that dot the city following the January 20 coordinated Boko Haram bomb and gun attacks that killed 185 people.
    Military authorities in Kano were not available for comment as the spokesman of the special military unit in the city did not respond to inquiries by reporters.
    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...8142c07d80.221

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    Default Boko Haram: JAMB may cancel UTME exams in affected Northern States

    These are the entrance exams into Nigerian universities - the impact of a lack of security. If Boko Haram persists, the impact on the education of kids in North East Nigeria will be felt for years.

    JAMB Registrar, Prof Dibu Ojerinde, while speaking at the 58th National Council on Education (NEC) meeting on Friday in Abuja announced that there will be no Unified Tertiary Matriculation Examination (UTME) in the volatile states in northern Nigeria.
    Prof. Ojerinde stated that the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) will be forced to cancel the examination if the Boko Haram attack on primary and secondary schools in Borno State continues.
    “When we reviewed the situation in volatile states, for instance Borno, we realised that some of the schools are being bombed but our investigations showed that only primary schools are affected and not secondary schools.
    “The board will be left with no option than to tell the candidates to go elsewhere to write the exams if schools which serve as centres are attacked,’’ The JAMB Registrar said.
    The registrar regretted that the development could be quite unfortunate for the students.
    Prof. Ojerinde disclosed that the board had increased the number of examination towns from 328 to 379 while the number of centres also increased from 2,872 to 3,052.
    He said that the teething problem that greeted the use of biometric data machines in 2011 had been addressed, adding that the biometric machines would take only 30 to 40 minutes to verify the entire 540 candidates registered for a centre.
    Boko Haram had on Feb. 28, attacked four primary schools in Maiduguri, setting the Gomari Costain Primary School and a section of the Maiduguri Experimental School, Kawanar on fire.
    They also set ablaze Budum Kulo Gomna Primiary Schools and Abba Ganaram Primary School also in Maiduguri.
    http://www.informationnigeria.org/20...rn-states.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    That's not the impression I got from listening to a US House of Rep hearing. They expressed shock that Africans haven't fallen in love with the US given the large amounts of aid poured there.
    Never listen to US Congressional hearings. For most of those in attendance the first thought they'd given to the subject in the past year was probably on the way to the hearing when they read the staff briefing and frantically tried to come up with a soundbite.

    Don't listen to words, watch the actions, observe the flow of money and resources, and you get some idea of what the priorities are. Of course in an event devoted to aid policy (or aid budgets) or Africa policy they will try to pretend they can find these countries on a map, and try to say something that the constituents can identify with. How many hours a year do you really think they spend thinking about these topics?
    Last edited by Dayuhan; 03-04-2012 at 11:00 PM.
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    Default US to open consulate in Kano

    This again points to the cognitive dissonance that governs much of America's foreign policy.

    The US is unquestionably pro-Israeli and has a record of supporting the worst of Arab dictators. Opening consulates and embassies in Muslim heartlands will not magically change that animosity.

    U.S. Under-Secretary for Political Affairs, Amb. Wendy Sherman, says the US will open a consulate in Kano to further strengthen bilateral relations with Nigeria.

    Sherman announced this on Monday in an interview with newsmen after a brief meeting in Abuja with the Minister of State, Foreign Affairs, Prof. Voila Onwulere. ``I am absolutely delighted to be here in Nigeria; the real focus of our deliberation is on the strength of our bilateral relations, as the U.S. and Nigeria are partners on Bi-National Commission (BNC). ``The Minister and I have discussed what we will do to ensure security, peace and democracy in Africa,’’ she said.

    The embassy has an office in Lagos and also operates American Corner, a nationwide information service centre. Sherman said the additional consulate which would be opened in partnership with Nigeria, would further buttress the strength of bilateral relations between both nations.

    According to her, the U.S. will continue to assist Nigeria to deal with its security challenges and support Nigeria in any way possible to deal with any threat. In her remark, Onwulere said the regular visits of top U.S. officials to the country in recent times were evidences of the cordial relations both nations enjoyed. ``There hasn’t been a time that our bilateral relations are stronger than this; it takes countries with similar ideas to come together for a common cause. ``This visit underscores the strength of those relations, and we also exchanged messages from our presidents. ``We talked about key position of Jonathan’s Transformation Agenda, so these visits signal greater things to come not just in Nigeria but globally,’’ Onwulere said. The BNC was established in 2010 to among other things promote good governance, regional security and tackle corruption.
    http://www.businessdayonline.com/NG/...-in-kano-envoy

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    Default Why we attacked schools - Boko Haram

    Interesting.

    The recent Boko Haram onslaught on schools in Borno State is a reprisal against the continued attacks on Tsangaya (Islamiyya) schools and the arrest of clerics by security agents, the group’s spokesperson, Abul-Qaqa, has said.
    Qaqa, in an E-mailed response to questions from newsmen in Maiduguri, said, “We warned that security agents must stop attacking and arresting clerics in Tsangaya (Islamiyya) schools but nobody took our warning seriously.

    “They continued arresting Islamic teachers and that is why we resolve to continue attacking public schools. Certainly, if Qur’anic education will not be allowed to continue, then secular and western education will not continue also,” he said, noting that Islamic scholars were arrested at Bulabulin and Jajeri in Maiduguri metropolis.

    And when told that thousands of children were now missing classes because of the assault, Qaqa said, “We are not worried because what goes around comes around. Governments at all levels were not concerned with the fact that thousands of Muslim children have been forced to stop learning Qur’anic education in Tsangaya schools.

    On the attacks on places of worship especially churches, he said that the recent arrest of Christians while attempting to bomb a church in Bauchi State was a clear indication of the plot by security operatives to instigate violence. He alleged that the church would-be-bombers were planted by security operatives in order to create false alarm.

    “There is grand conspiracy in respect of the Christians that have been arrested while trying to detonate bombs in some churches. This is a script crafted by the state security service (SSS) in other to confuse people and convince other Muslims not to believe in what we are doing.

    “Agents of the SSS have been doing this for a very long time. They want the world to believe that we are attacking everybody but they would not succeed, by the grace of Allah,” he said.

    “We are attacking churches on retaliatory mission because Christians have burnt countless mosques in this country,” Qaqa said.

    Qaqa also debunked claims that his group was not waging a Jihad, but working for some individuals that wanted to dismember Nigeria.

    Asked when the group will seize fire, Qaqa said, “We have warned severally that we would continue launching attacks until our members are released. Unfortunately however, the trend of the arrest has been extended to our wives and children. We would soon start kidnapping the wives and children of all the people that have hands in the arrest of our wives and children.”
    http://dailytrust.com.ng/index.php?o...:news&Itemid=2

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    This again points to the cognitive dissonance that governs much of America's foreign policy.

    The US is unquestionably pro-Israeli and has a record of supporting the worst of Arab dictators. Opening consulates and embassies in Muslim heartlands will not magically change that animosity.
    Jaja,
    Before we go overboard on the consulate in Kano, a few salient points:

    The jargon is pure State BS that they say all the time.

    Opening a consulate in a large country like in Zaire and now in Nigeria has more to do with providing easier access to counselor services to both Americans and Nigerians that live and work far from the US Embassy.

    Reading into this is a fool's game.

    On the other hand, your police and security services should indeed take advantage of using the consulate as a conduit.

    As to who actually works in that consulate ... I haven't the foggiest idea
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    Interesting.
    ... He alleged that the church would-be-bombers were planted by security operatives in order to create false alarm.
    This sadly is the norm in my part of Africa. This would account for the lack of deaths and collateral damage too. But, that's pure speculation.

    This is where post blast forensics shine. It would have been obvious who did what to whom and with what.

    The remainder of the article seems to say nothing about a Jihad.
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingJaja View Post
    This again points to the cognitive dissonance that governs much of America's foreign policy.

    The US is unquestionably pro-Israeli and has a record of supporting the worst of Arab dictators. Opening consulates and embassies in Muslim heartlands will not magically change that animosity.
    The State Dept can't change policy toward Israel or toward Arab regimes... and the degree to which the latter depend on US support is consistently overrated. They can only do what they can with the limited options they've got. Generally that comes down to making empty gestures and saying empty words.

    I'm curious, though... how large an issue is Israel to Nigerian Muslims? I ask because in SE Asia the Muslims, even the militant ones, really don't care; it's local issues that get them fired up.
    “The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary”

    H.L. Mencken

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    Muslims in Nigeria tend to follow what is going on in Israel and the wider Middle East pretty closely. We've had violent riots against the Dutch cartoons (15 dead) and US war on Afghanistan (several dead). Recently, the presence of an Israeli "security expert" at a Middle Belt (read Northern Christian organized) security conference drew a lot of controversy.

    Having said that, all it takes is one hot head. Nigeria has far too many poor, hungry, unemployed Muslim youth.

    Finally, there isn't one "Muslim population in Nigeria". The Muslim population that should be of interest to the West is the population in the far North. They tend to be more fundamentalist, less educated and more prone to violence.

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    Default Northern city of Sokoto in the "limelight"

    A bout of UK and I expect Italian media attention after a failed hostage rescue in Sokoto, which aimed to release two civil engineers:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...escue-bid.html

    Amidst the official briefings it remains unclear whether the Nigerians were the "hard edge" or whether the British SBS (part of UK Special Forces) were alongside them.
    davidbfpo

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    I doubt Nigerians were the "hard edge". There is little motivation for Nigeria forces to mount an operation like that and the Nigerian security services have a very cavalier approach to human life.

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