'Nigeria: the context for violence' (2006-2013)

[KingJaja]

A Nigerian intellectual's take on the problem of Northern Nigeria.

Only last week, however, an impressive array of mostly Northern notables was convoked for the purpose of finding solutions to the unrelenting violence. These efforts are impressive displays of concern. But among this gamut of views and propositions, there is nothing on the table that suggests that we are prepared to admit the origins of the crisis or intelligently engage on permanent solutions.

While we grope for solutions, to my mind, the region faces three distinct possibilities: First, increased federal security effort could produce a temporary restoration of the pre-existing order of inequality secured by force. Second, the regime of insecurity could become institutionalised to the extent of the region becoming more like Somalia and thus become effectively de-coupled from the rest of the federation. The latter would be characterised by periodic fire fights between armed factions and the rise of warlords. With the characterisation of elements of Boko Haram as part of an international terrorist organisation by the US, we may soon play host to drone attacks on suspected terrorists targets in Nigerian territory. The third more positive possibility is an internal political revolution in which a new leadership emerges to seriously address the challenges of development and modernisation of the region, literally continuing from where the late Sar’dauna of Sokoto left off in 1966.

Most interpretations of the turn of events in the North are mostly as foolish as the blind quest for solutions in wrong directions. The anomy in the region is not exclusively a failure of security. The North is as insecure as the rest of Nigeria and people are not strapping explosive belts around their waists in other parts of the country. It is also not necessarily a political pressure to get a Northern president in 2015. How come Boko Haram has targeted key Northern leaders including, most recently, some traditional rulers and key politicians? It is true Al Queda and other fundamentalist anarchists seek fertile ground in places where poverty and desperation drive people of friendly faith to buy into their theology of mindless bestiality. But the Nigerian show of repeated violence is not strictly theirs; our strategic position vis-a-vis Western interests is mostly marginal but our weak security infrastructure makes this place attractive to casual anarchists, be they Boko Haram, kidnappers or glorified oil thieves erroneously dubbed Niger Delta militants.

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/...Av7cg.facebook

[Dayuhan]

With the characterisation of elements of Boko Haram as part of an international terrorist organisation by the US, we may soon play host to drone attacks on suspected terrorists targets in Nigerian territory.

This illustrates one of my reservations about a US declaration of Boko Haram as a terrorist organization. Of course it isn't true: most groups on the FTO list have never experienced a drone strike or any other military action. It will be widely believed, though, and if militants believe they're in line for US attacks they've little reason not to attack US or other international targets.

[KingJaja]

This illustrates one of my reservations about a US declaration of Boko Haram as a terrorist organization. Of course it isn't true: most groups on the FTO list have never experienced a drone strike or any other military action. It will be widely believed, though, and if militants believe they're in line for US attacks they've little reason not to attack US or other international targets.

That's the problem. On the one hand, the US insists on keeping this classification system which is of dubious utility, while on the other, being afraid of using it "for fear of attacks on US interests".

The Nigerian public is forming the opinion that the US is either complicit or acquiesces to the existence of Boko Haram, because in their view, if there ever was an "open and shut" case of a Foreign Terrorist Organisation - this is it.

So how can the US spin its self out of this corner? It can't. Eventually, sooner than later, under pressure from public opinion in Nigeria and political pressure from the Republicans - the Obama administration will have to apply the FTO designation to Boko Haram.

[KingJaja]

The Catholic Archbishop of Owerri Diocese, the Most Rev. Anthony Obinna, has said Christians may soon take up arms in self defence, if the killings by the Boko Haram sect continue unabated.
He said Christians will no longer watch religious extremists butcher their loved ones, but would rise up in defence of their lives and faith.
The cleric spoke at the Assumpta Cathedral in Owerri, the Imo State capital, during the media briefing of the Odenigbo Annual Lecture.
He said it is the responsibility of the government to protect its citizens and urged the Federal Government to sit up.
Archbishop Obinna said: “It is the responsibility of the Federal Government to protect all citizens, irrespective of religious, ethnic or political affiliations, in any part of the country, but in a situation where it fails to do so, we will take up arms and defend ourselves.”

http://www.thenationonlineng.net/201...%E2%80%99.html

[Dayuhan]

That's the problem. On the one hand, the US insists on keeping this classification system which is of dubious utility, while on the other, being afraid of using it "for fear of attacks on US interests".

It's of no utility at all to Nigerians. It's not meant to be. It's a tool of US policy, no less or more, and it will be used only if the US thinks its use will produce more gain than risk for the US.

The Nigerian public is forming the opinion that the US is either complicit or acquiesces to the existence of Boko Haram

Part of the Nigerian public, perhaps. The FTO designation would convince another part that the US is on the verge of intervening or is actually intervening in a domestic Nigerian problem. The question is which perception is a bigger problem for the US.

So how can the US spin its self out of this corner? It can't. Eventually, sooner than later, under pressure from public opinion in Nigeria and political pressure from the Republicans - the Obama administration will have to apply the FTO designation to Boko Haram.

The US government is not notably responsive to public opinion in Nigeria.

Has the Republican Party been applying pressure to have the FTO designation applied to BH?

We shall see what has to be or does not have to be done. Nothing, I would guess, until after the election, after which the Obama administration may or may not be around. How a Romney administration would handle the situation would handle the situation is a hard call to make, but I suspect that avoidance of perceived or actual foreign entanglement will be high on the agenda no matter who wins.

[Dayuhan]

Couple of comments on the issue:

https://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2012/...-organization/

Why NOT to Designate Boko Haram a Foreign Terrorist Organization

A group of Nigeria watchers, including myself, has sent the secretary of state a letter urging that northeastern Nigeria’s “Boko Haram” not be given a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) designation.

Boko Haram is different from other FTOs, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Tamil Tigers, which have an organizational structure and a unified goal. Boko Haram is a highly diffuse movement with little, if any, central organization. In fact, the name “Boko Haram” is a label applied only by the Nigerian government, press, and security services, usually to describe the violence occurring (daily) in the north of the country. Most watchers agree that this violence is perpetrated by a myriad of actors, including former followers of the murdered preacher Mohammed Yusuf as well as criminal and other elements.

The uniting feature of Boko Haram is its focus on Nigeria. Its rhetoric does not include international jihadist themes. With the isolated exception of the UN headquarters bombing in Abuja, which is viewed in Nigeria as a collaborator with the Nigerian government, its targets have all been Nigerian, usually police, military, places of worship, and drinking establishments. Notably, most of Boko Haram’s victims have been Muslim...

There's a quote in this one that seemed interesting:

http://www.internationalpolicydigest...-organization/

Nigeria’s Ambassador to the U.S. Prof. Ade Adefuye, said his country was opposed to the declaration of Boko Haram as a FTO for a number of reasons:

• It will enhance the image and prestige of Boko Haram among other terrorist organizations which may be encourage them to strengthen their ties to Boko Haram.
• It will give the impression that Nigeria is not able to contain the sect when it has successfully contained Niger-Delta militants who were more focused, better organized and deadlier.
• An FTO operating in any country is subject to America’s search and destroy operations which includes the sending of drones as is currently happening in Pakistan, Somalia, and Yemen. Such activities bring untold suffering to citizens of such countries. “We do not want that in Nigeria,’’ he said.
• The U.S. does not have direct evidence of the dangers posed to it by the activities of Boko Haram.
• That a declaration of a Nigerian-based FTO militants was “strongly against our drive for American foreign investment.’’ He explained that Nigerian citizens arriving at American ports would be treated as inhabitants of an FTO based country and that each traveller would have to prove that he does not belong to Boko Haram.

Does that position accurately represent the position of the Nigerian Government?

[KingJaja]

Nigeria's Islamist terror sect Boko Haram has allegedly changed tactics from bombings to cybercrime with its latest assault - releasing online the personnel records of the country's top spies.

The personal data of more than 60 staff at the State Security Service (SSS), including home addresses and names of immediate family, were dumped online along with a threatening message from Boko Haram.

The SSS has waged a deadly campaign against the sect, which wants to impose Sharia or Islamic law over Africa's most populous country.

The leaks have alarmed analysts who have asked whether agents are too compromised from within to beat Boko Haram.

"This is a national embarrassment," one official told AP.

"I was shocked to see my details posted on the internet," said one former agent. "I've not heard anything from anybody. I was surprised that such information could be leaked."

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/37...eria-s-top.htm

[KingJaja]

The Joint Task Force (JTF) in Maiduguri has called on the public to disregard the leaflets and posters being distributed by Boko Haram terrorists urging people not to pass information to the JTF on the locations and activities of the sect.

In a statement issued today by its spokesman, Lieutenant Colonel Sagir Musa, JTF stressed that the publications are simply part of the propaganda of the terrorists to keep the civil populace in captivity and perpetual fear with a view to unleashing more terror on innocent citizens.

In a separate statement, JTF drew attention to two recent incidents in the area in which, following search operations in which JTF recovered some arms and ammunition, members of Boko Haram arrived at the same market and coerced people to pay compensation for the seizure—without the incident being reported to JTF.

“JTF wishes to alert and warn individuals or group to desist from such unpatriotic acts as both the giver and receiver of such monies would be treated as terrorists and be seriously dealt with,” the statement said, reiterating its commitment to the maintenance of law, order and the protection of lives and properties of law abiding citizens.

It reminded the public that security is a collective responsibility rooted in information sharing and collaboration, and that members of the public can reach JTF on phone numbers 080-64174066, 080-85464012 and 080-54429346.

http://saharareporters.com/news-page...ts-and-posters

Seems like Boko Haram is borrowing from the Taliban playbook.

[KingJaja]

All serious analysts of Nigeria are advised to carefully consider these two stories. They are likely to have an impact on the future of Nigeria, and Nigeria will have to grapple with the tensions between North and South for the next twenty years.

Where will this end? Most probably a dissolution of the Nigerian state. Our prayer is that it is peaceful - but you were forewarned.

THE furore generated by some members of the Northern Governors’ Forum on the need to review the revenue allocation formula and onshore-offshore dichotomy may have moved from the political to the intellectual realm, and a hardening of positions.

Indeed, the new song is that the country must return to the negotiation table to define its corporate existence along the line of justice, equity and fairness in the allocation of resources to the federating units.

While the North clamours for more revenue to its region through a revisit of the revenue allocation formula and divestment of the offshore resources from the allocation to the littoral states of the Niger Delta, the latter zone wants total control of its oil resources.

It wants this done through an upward review of derivation from the current 13 per cent to 50 per cent.

Dr. Junaid Mohammed, physician and politician, described as an aberration the onshore/offshore dichotomy law, which awards more revenue to states in the oil-rich Niger Delta far ahead of states in the North.

Which is why he wants the matter revisited, insisting it had never been settled.

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index...nal&Itemid=559

NORTHERN leaders, Sunday, spurned Yoruba leaders' agitation for regional autonomy and a return to the parliamentary system of government, describing the clamour as a recipe for Nigeria's disintegration.

Yoruba elders under the banner of Yoruba National Assembly, YNA, had after a meeting in Ibadan last Thursday, canvassed a return to the parliamentary system of government and granting of regional autonomy to the South-West.

They also called for removal of the immunity clause for criminal offences; a new Nigeria consisting of a federal government and six regional governments (based on the current six geo-political zones) operating federal and regional constitutions, respectively; and adoption of Regional and State Police force structure among others.

But responding to the development, some prominent northern leaders, who spoke exclusively to Vanguard, kicked against YNA's call, saying that the agitation would plunge the nation into incalculable crises and hasten her break-up.

However, Secretary-General of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Chief Nduka Eya, said the demands of the Yoruba leaders were in tandem with the position of Ndigbo, which had been sent to the National Assembly for inclusion in the on-going constitution amendment exercise.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201209030129.html

[KingJaja]

Now Boko Haram is attacking Telecom infrastructure in Northern Nigeria.

The economic impact on this part of Nigeria needs to be carefully considered.

Gunmen suspected to be Boko Haram members killed 16 people in an attack in Yobe State on Thursday morning.

The assailants, who used Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and petrol-bombs during the attack, set ablaze the service-base masts of Airtel, Glo and Etisalat in Potiskum and Damaturu .

This is coming barely 24 hours after torching 15 masts of four Global System of Mobile Communication (GSM) firms in Borno state.

Among the 16 people killed was the Yobe state government protocol officer, Mallam Adamu.

Adamu was attacked and killed while returning from his duty post at the Government House, Damaturu.

Not less than 24 towers have been attacked, likely causing damage worth millions of dollars, says an association of mobile phone companies.

Army spokesperson Sagir Musa put the blame on radical Islamist group known as Boko Haram. Months ago the group threatened to target phone companies for collaborating with authorities.

According to experts, a tower costs about 450,000 US dollars and with antennas, generators and transmission equipment, the cost of a single tower can exceed one million US dollars

[Bill Moore]

Frankly I'm surprised that they haven't been systematically targeting economic infrastructure for sometime now. It seems many of the Islamist movements globally prefer to focus on symbolic targets, or targets that are intended to create a conflict between different ethnic groups, than targets that are directly associated with the enemy's economy and military capabilities. Maybe they have been in this case, I'm just not seeing it in the media.

[KingJaja]

Bill,

It depends on what their aims are. There isn't very much by the way of economic activity in Northern Nigeria and whatever economic activity occurred in the past has been severely stunted by their activities.

So they have nothing to prove by attacking other economic targets.

They are attacking telecom masts because they suspect the govt is using telecom infrastructure to track them.

[Dayuhan]

Boko Haram offers negotiations, but under terms I can't imagine any sovereign government accepting...

Boko Haram gives terms for talks with government

AFTER about three years of keeping the country on the brink of disintegration owing to the violence it regularly inflicted on it, Boko Haram may have decided to dialogue with the Federal Government.

But the group wants the dialogue to hold on its terms. It says the talks should take place in Saudi Arabia, it should be paid compensation and former Borno State Governor Ali Modu Sheriff who was arrested by the police in connection with the activities of the group, and its members being held should be released...

http://www.ngrguardiannews.com/index...d=559#comments

[davidbfpo]

Events elsewhere may have distracted SWC, notably Mali, but Nigeria continues to make its own path. A somewhat confusing path too at times, well illustrated by this commentary 'Analyzing Foreign Influence and Jihadi Networks in Nigeria':http://thewasat.wordpress.com/2013/0...ks-in-nigeria/

Which ends with:

After all, different groups, even splinters that maintain ties, still have different motivations and make different cost/benefit calculations about operations based on different factors. Which ultimately goes to show that, counter to what some might think, not all Muslims think and react the same way to complex and rapidly evolving events. Not even Nigerian jihadis.

Then there is the surprise:

A purported commander of Nigerian Islamist sect Boko Haram declared a unilateral ceasefire on Monday...

Link:http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...90R0V020130128 and http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-16761670

[KingJaja]

The causality figures are actually closer to hundred.

At least 41 people died in a suicide car bomb that struck a bus station in a Christian neighborhood in Kano, northern Nigeria's busiest commercial center, in the most deadly attack in nine months that is blamed on Islamic extremists, an official said Tuesday.

The blast increased tensions in this divided West African nation.

At least 44 others were injured in the attack that hit the city of Kano Monday evening, a rescue official who asked not to be named because he is not authorized to speak to the press. Kano state police said Tuesday that two men rammed an explosive-laden blue VW Golf into a full passenger bus in a mainly Christian enclave in the predominantly Muslim commercial center.

By striking at about 5 p.m. Monday, the bombers seemed to have targeted passengers preparing for the 15-hour overnight road trip to the megacity of Lagos in Nigeria's south, loved ones bidding them farewell and vendors selling drinks and snacks. The blast triggered panic and pandemonium in a city that has seen similar violence in the past.

Kano police chief Musa Daura had said in a statement that at least 22 people had died, but the rescue official said there were 41 deaths at least. He said there were 21 bodies were at Murtala Muhammad Specialist Hospital and 20 more at Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, said rescue officials. They are also treating 41 and 3 injured respectively. Police has downplayed figures in the past to avoid reprisals.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...2#.UUxC-BfFXko

This sort of thing has been going on for too long, if things continue at this rate, it's no longer a question of if, but when Nigeria implodes.

[davidbfpo]

Some good news:

Seven members of a French family kidnapped by gunmen in northern Cameroon in February have been freed.

Freed and no explanation why, with French reassurances that:

France has not changed its position, which is not to pay ransoms....

Link:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22213125

[davidbfpo]

A little more on the release of the French family hostages; who took them? Local highway robebrs, who sold them onto Boko Haram and:

From reliable sources, there have been a prisoner exchange and Cameroon has given to Boko Haram suspected members of the Islamist sect detained in the country.

Link:http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130420-l...-contreparties

[KingJaja]

Major escalation of Boko Haram related violence near Lake Chad.

BAGA, Nigeria (AP) -- Fighting between Nigeria's military and Islamic extremists killed at least 185 people in a fishing community in the nation's far northeast, officials said Sunday, an attack that saw insurgents fire rocket-propelled grenades and soldiers spray machine-gun fire into neighborhoods filled with civilians.

The fighting in Baga began Friday and lasted for hours, sending people fleeing into the arid scrublands surrounding the community on Lake Chad. By Sunday, when government officials finally felt safe enough to see the destruction, homes, businesses and vehicles were burned throughout the area.

The assault marks a significant escalation in the long-running insurgency Nigeria faces in its predominantly Muslim north, with extremists mounting a coordinated assault on soldiers using military-grade weaponry.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT

[KingJaja]

ABUJA, Nigeria — Nearly four years into Nigeria’s bloody struggle with Islamists in its impoverished north, a new threat has emerged with deadly implications, this time for Westerners as well as Nigerians: local militants who openly claim to be inspired and trained by Al Qaeda and its affiliate in the region.

Having split off from Boko Haram — the dominant Nigerian extremist group responsible for weekly shootings and bombings — this new group, Ansaru, says it eschews the killing of fellow Nigerians.

“Too reckless,” said a young member of Ansaru. His group evidently prefers a more calculated approach: kidnapping and killing foreigners.

Just days before, his group had methodically killed seven foreign construction workers deep in Nigeria’s semidesert north. The seven had been helping to build a road; their bodies were shown in a grainy video, lying on the ground.

The West, which has often regarded the Islamist uprising here as a Nigerian domestic issue, has been explicitly put on notice by Ansaru, adding an international dynamic to a conflict that has already cost more than 3,000 lives.

Ansaru is believed to be responsible for the December kidnapping of a French engineer, who is still missing, and for the abduction of an Italian and a Briton, both construction workers, who were later killed by their captors as a rescue attempt began last year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/24/wo...pagewanted=all

What the article doesn't tell you is Boko Haram is mainly a Kanuri affair, whilst Ansaru is a Hausa/Fulani thing.

Almost everything in Africa is ethnic - so we can be rest assured that this will not spread to the Christian South of Nigeria.

[davidbfpo]

A different focus for once, an article by an IISS analyst, Virginia Comolli, on her visit to Kano and starts with:

What strikes me the most on my arrival in the city of Kano, in northern Nigeria, is the number of boys roaming the streets. Here in the heartland of the Islamist insurgency that has afflicted Nigeria for the past few years, children as young as four or five spend their days weaving among the chaotic traffic and begging for food. Sent to religious boarding schools by families too poor to properly support them, they are known as almajiris.

Link:http://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices...s-of-kano-3fe2