Iraqi SA = Secruity Agreement.... or Separation Agreement

**Courtney Massengale** · 07-31-2009

Originally Posted by Team Infidel

I believe that the GoI is as good now as it will be.

This I agree with. I think the structure of the GoI needs only minor tweaking at this point, until some major new development comes along (ie Kurd relations, some new Sunni movement, increased soft power from Iran, etc). However, the people who populate the GoI are the limiting factor. I believe that there are some very smart individuals out there who are waiting for Americans to leave before they launch into politics. They're waiting for the external influences to go away (both US and Iranian) before they jump in with both feet. When the GoI is filled with people who want to put Iraq first, its going to fire on all cylanders.

The marginalization of U.S. Forces is pretty strong. We don't know what the Iraqis want at the CORPS and FORCE level of planning because they don't attend our meeting. Meanwhile, we continue to plan bilateral efforts without any Iraqi buyin. How can we do this and be successful in our partnership? How hard would it be for an Iraqi planner to sit in with our planning teams and tell us how we can support them? So we continue for hours and hours in our OPTs and JPTs planning blind. Does that make ANY sense? Really... does it?

... and this is exactly what the Iraqi people need to see the effects of. The current GoI is making a big show about how they're not playing with the Americans and the Coalition is being very shrewd about the message they send.

Right now, certain individuals don't want a "partnership" because sitting down with the Americans and admitting they need us will cost them votes. However, its also costing them votes to unilaterally deny that they need any American support. Oh what a predicament if you're an elected GoI official from an urban area!

Inshallah, the January elections will seat candidates who can articulate what they need out of a security agreement because the people want a bilateral security agreement.

**Team Infidel** · 07-31-2009

You just have to love the Iraqi political season.... However, I still think you can pull a BCT or two out of here early and still have the same advisory effect. As for us planners... we're screwed.

**TheCurmudgeon** · 08-02-2009

Originally Posted by Team Infidel

You just have to love the Iraqi political season.... However, I still think you can pull a BCT or two out of here early and still have the same advisory effect. As for us planners... we're screwed.

I suppose you can start planning an accelerated withdrawal.

For what it is worth coming from a POG I think you HAVE TO pull out a BCTs or two BEFORE the elections if we want to keep the Iraqis as strategic partners. Probably not a popular view since we feel we have to be here to ensure a fair election but I have a feeling we will not be asked for much help from the government in supporting the election process. It would demonstrate our trust in thier ability to govern themselves. (How far away you move them is a seperate matter.) Probably would not hurt if we gave back a few more historic sites like palaces and such.

My hope now rests with the limited impression we made on the junior officers. As they grow through the ranks and the old guard losses power these officers who we spent time with may remember us with respect or even reverence - but that is in the far future. The trick now is to keep some form of relationship going for the next ten to twenty years.

There was another post on the state of the IA that complained about our culture - the way we have to quantify everything to the "umpteenth digit" I think was the quote. I wonder how much our own need for a quantifiable victory is hampering our ability to see that we have achieved a qualitative victory. This is particularly true as long as we try to use our military as the standard the IA has to live up to.

Good luck with your meetings. So far we are still in good graces with our IA partners. It might be because what we offer is technical assistance not related to security or governance. But I am just waiting for the tenor to change.

**TheCurmudgeon** · 08-02-2009

Of course, none of what we have been talking about touches on the need the Iraqis still have for protection from external threats. They have no Air Force to speak of. They have almost no Air Assault nor medevac. They have almost no armor. It will take some time to build these capabilities. The only question is - will it be the US helping them build it or will they go elsewhere because we have screwed up our relationship so badly that they no longer want anything to do with us.

**TheCurmudgeon** · 08-05-2009

Guess my idea about pulling out a couple of BCTs did not fly...

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...pull-out-memo/

Wonder how MAJ Reese is doing...