Hi LS,

Well, my take on it is that it is FID by stupidity using COIN tactics. I say "by stupidity", because I think that both Iraq and Afghanistan should have been occupations followed by a ground-up development of a democracy (if that was the desired end state and assuming that the wars were justified in the first place [Definitely not the place for that debate]).

The reason why I say it currently is FID is that the legitimacy of the current Iraqi and Afghan governments is dependent upon and stems from their recognition by the international community of states - it does not derive from a "home grown" movement. The elections in each, while arguably "fair", are not really perceived as being "home grown".

I would suggest that in Iraq this is moving over increasingly to become the "reality" - Tom would be in a much better position to comment on Iraq. In Afghanistan, my take, for what it's worth, is that the Karzai regime has little local legitimacy as does the entire government and its processes. It's reminding me a bit of Emperor Maximillian and Mexico.

So, on the whole, I would have to say that it is FID in general with too many of the major actors resembling the Keystone Cops.