What we really need is a better crystal ball

[davidbfpo]

Difficult to find a place for this commentary on intelligence analysis, so dropped in here.

Titled 'How Critics of Obama's Libya Response Profoundly Misunderstand Intelligence' and sub-titled 'Agencies still don't have all the facts about what went down in Benghazi, and interpreting them correctly will take time, a former CIA analyst explains':http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/...igence/263139/

When intelligence from a conflict zone is assessed, the results are not clear, linear, or static. Rather, 21st-century intelligence analysis -- particularly when it is occurring in real-time and on something high-profile -- can be messy, obtuse and, above all, evolving.

1. A lot of first-contact intelligence is wrong.
2. Intelligence analysts almost always hedge their language.
3. The intelligence community's production timelines are ill-suited to our 24/7 news cycle.
4. Arguing over what to call the assailants misses the point.

The author co-wrote this book, not heard of:http://www.amazon.com/Find-Fix-Finis.../dp/1610391284