Quote Originally Posted by davidbfpo View Post
This thread is at a more strategic level - for Small Wars - how can 'a better crystal ball' be developed and invested in? What is a better crystal ball?
Errr.... let's not even try. You cannot predict the future. It's nonsense. We have pumped millions into "predicting future threats" and we have ALWAYS BEEN WRONG.
The problem isn't the Crystal Ball. It's the humans looking into it.

What you can predict, with reasonably high accuracy, is the capabilities that threats might have, and how they will use them. Problem is that this area gets corrupted by not very smart folks trying to secure funds, and usually based on no evidence.