The 'COIN' mantra folks may not like it -- but no war is as simple as they wish to make it, conversely, waging warfare against crooks, dissidents, gangbangers, guerrillas, insurgents, smugglers and battlefield strays is less complex than they seem to wish it to be.

There are always actors on any battlefield that are not doing what everyone else is doing. If you think everyone in opposition is the same and proceed to treat them that way, you are highly likely to create incidental insurgents -- or something.

Trying to apply a one-size fits all model to fighting a war is sort of like taking an Ibuprofen instead of Acetylsalicylic Acid. Both relieve swelling but other than that, they do very different things. I'm beginning to believe the COIN devotees object to reality.

In any event, it's FID, not COIN. Actually, it's FID, Mod 2 in that we are not aiding A government with development; we are attempting to install a Government modeled after our own in an area that is not like us and that has effectively been ungoverned for almost 30 years. Further, we are attempting to impose a strong central government ion an area that has never had such a thing. Not likely to work. This is not standard, base model FID and it certainly isn't COIN (Though some COIN TTP Are appropriate). It is FID to the second or third power -- and there is no rule book.

Is the object to aid the people form a government or or to impose a government the people do not want but that we do? You have to adapt to all the local nuances and aid development. It may well be that the western idea of a strong central government is not the right size. No sense in fashioning one that will only implode when we leave.

I became convinced some time ago that the Afghans were not confused or ignorant about what was happening there; we were. Several events and items over the last few weeks have really reinforced that. We need to figure out what we want. We are doing something not done before so there are no models, no guidebooks; we have to think about it. When you do not know what you really want to do, you're highly likely to do some wrong things...