I don't see how a theory can help or hurt us... actions based on that theory would be another story, and in that event we'd have to assess the impact of the actions.Originally Posted by jcustis
The administration may not have publicly stated the "democratic domino theory" (I'm not going to check the archives to see), but this belief was stated loudly and often by many of the key supporters of the war, particularly those from the "neocon" side. Remember all the talk about "draining the swamp" in the Middle East? At times it started to sound like there was a row of huge crates in some warehouse in DC, each labeled "Democracy, functioning, one", ready to be "installed" like a spare tire or a light bulb. The assumption seemed to be that democracy is some sort of natural state, and that once the dictatorship was removed it would flourish of its own accord with a minor bit of judicious American cultivation, winning acclamation from all and setting a glowing example for the benighted peoples of the region.
Of course it didn't quite work that way, as anyone with 4 functioning synapses would have expected from the start. Democracy cannot be installed, it evolves, and the evolution is often a prolonged process fraught with disorder and instability. When a dictator is overthrown by internal forces, there are by definition internal forces with at least enough coherence and support to overthrow a dictatorship. That doesn't assure a smooth transition to democracy, but it's a start. When a dictator is overthrown from the outside, where do you start? The institutions needed for democracy to function don't exist. If the outside party tries to create them, they are meddling. If they don't, there is chaos. Not a great place to be.
Are we striving for stability in the Middle East, or democracy? They are not the same thing, and trying to force democratic transitions is hardly going to promote stability... quite the opposite.
There's a lot of ranting about Saudi Arabia, and much of it overlooks the quite dramatic moves by the Saudis in the last 5-6 years, not toward democracy but toward providing a better life for the citizenry. The 90s were a pretty grim time in the Kingdom: the royals invested the proceeds of the first oil boom outside the country, for the most part, and when the glut and the price plunge came the royals were living in style while the populace felt the pinch - not a combination that promotes stability. The recent oil price surge saw a very different approach: the Saudis have spent enormous sums on domestic infrastructure, housing, health care, education, and job creation, and there has been a real influence on popular sentiment. Of course there are still fundamentalists who will take off and join the jihad, but they are not agitating for democracy, and democracy and liberalism are as likely to provoke radicalism as to alleviate it.
The Gulf States are not democratic, but what business of ours is that? They are ordering their affairs in their own way, and whatever change takes place will happen in their way at their demand: I don't see any real evidence of widespread demand for democracy there. They aren't invading anybody, they aren't bothering anybody, why mess with them? We've more than enough problems elsewhere...
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