jcustis - any answer to your question(s) relating to why the US (or the Bush admin) invaded Iraq is complicated, not least as most if not all of the main Bush admin decision makers almost certainly had several justifications of equal relevance for taking down Iraq. Indeed, no state, no group of policy makers ever (well, maybe on rare occasions somewhere in history) commits to war for one reason. In other words, there no short answer. My view, for what it is worth and which broadly accords with Ken White’s, is as follows as shortly as I can make it given it is well past midnight and my bedtime (and I am out of single malt):

A) The rationale of Iraq becoming nuclear state was more about providing legitimacy for the invasion of Iraq in the eyes of the American public and garnering international legitimacy as well (ie, Husseins violation of UN Sec Council resolutions, so UN support, which provides more internal legitimacy). But some of the principles, probably Rumsfeld and Cheney, believed this the main, or at least a principle, casus belli.

B) The neocons, as well as agreeing with the publicly articulated need to remove a putative threat (which they had wanted to do since 1991!), perceived the source of terrorism was, well, the Middle East itself. 9/11 posed a conundrum: 50 or so years of US policy towards the Middle East resulted in three airliners smashing into buildings on American soil (with a fourth thwarted by the heroic measure of that plane’s passengers) plus 15 of 19 of the hijackers were Saudi’s. So, do you continue with the same policies as before (which is what the Europeans were arguing at the time) or do you do something different? Possibly radically different? We know what the Bush admin decided…..

C) Take this and think about 15 Saudi nationalists as the hijackers. Saudi is a problem. Well, not really ‘the’ problem, The problem as the Bu####es saw it, it seems to me, was the why behind what these 15 did what they did. The Euros at the time argued it was about poverty, lack of education, etc and so on, except the 15 were all at least middle class, looking at a future as professionals with a comfortable life style (you know, 2.3 wives, 3.4 kids, 4.1 cars, etc and so on). So, the answer for the neocons was that these 15 (and the other four) did what they did because they were politically disenfranchised – that is, they were not free, did not live in democracies. The Neo Cons were as, I term them, messianic democrats – a foundation of their view of how to ensure US security was to transform the world into democracies (and yes, seriously long term goal – and imperialistic goals at that). So, to generalize, the source of terrorism in the Mid East for them was (is?) the systems of governance – they are not democratic.

D) So, the solution to terrorism, long term at least, is to transform the governance in the Mid East. For the Neo Cons believed, as Wolfowitz publically argued, that Islam and Arabic culture were not incompatible with democratic governance, contrary to what many argued (including many on the left who made this politically incorrectly argument).

E) There is clearly a central problem in Saudi A, yet US cannot attack and overthrow the House of Saud. Heck, the US cannot really even pressurize it too much, because a) the US receives about 10% of its oil from Saudi [I likely have the percentage wrong, but not far off], and b) you need the House of Saud on side to sustain the King Fahd [sic?] Airbase, a forward US military base. Which the US needs why? To deter Hussein’s propensity for adventurism. Interestingly enough, within 3-4 months of the toppling of Hussein the US had reportedly mothballed the airbase and removed all US personnel (well, I think all). [Hmm, what did Osama demand in his 1996 declaration of war against the US? – right, the removal of all American personnel from the Islamic Holy Land.] Oddly enough, thereafter the House of Saud started to take the threat of AQ more seriously. And yes, in part as AQ elements started to attack the Saudi state, but there is a bit of a chicken and egg question here – which came first, increasing pressure by the House of Saud on supporters of AQ - and likely quietly pressured by the US to do this - with the AQ elements responding with violence (no more safe haven!) or the other way around?

F) It was argued that Iraq had, under Hussein, was the most educated and middle class society, and so was most amenable to democracy (there are hints of Marxism in this assessment!). Plus of course that Chalabi and other external dissidents saying the US would be greeted as liberators (telling the neo cons what they thought was true). And if Iraq becomes democratic it serves an exemplar for the rest of the population that their countries, Islamic and Arabic though they may be, could be democratic too. So, yes, there was as a rational the view (hope) if the US destabilized the Mid East and established a democracy in Iraq, a democratic domino theory would come to pass. Topple, topple, topple…..

To be cont....