Exum on NPR

[Ken White]

... What I think I really wanted to say is that using western ideals as the metric of success in a society where the mindset is still quasi-medieval is probably the wrong way to go. Elections aren’t going to magically create legitimacy. Providing for the needs of the people in a way the people understand and at a level they really want (and is sustainable), even where that need seems barbaric, may be what is required to win over the population.

Though I suggest you will not win them over -- what you will do is give them reason not to be won over by others. Or to not seem so -- sometime in that area, it's hard to tell. Either way, you're likely to be ahead of the opposition. Try to do it with western norms and you will not be ahead...

Problem is that politically, that is unpalatable.

Shouldn't be, though I admit reality often is. Barbaric is in the eye of and all that. The ME is not the US or Europe and they are not going to change their rules until they decide they wish to do so and right now most are reasonably happy with the way they do things. Western thought has difficulty accepting that for some reason.

[MikeF]

Although what is interesting about Iraq is the extent to which there wasn't large-scale Shi'ite violence directed against Sunnis until after the February 2006 al-Askari Mosque bombing. Indeed, through 2003-2006 both Kurdish and Shiite orientations towards the Sunni minority were remarkably restrained, despite both past history and ongoing AQI violence against Shi'ites in particular.

Correct. I think that when the final history of the Iraq war is written, 2003-2005 will be described as different insurgent groups shifting between Mao's Phase 0, 1, and limited 2. Initially, when we took down Baghdad, we used speed and mass to conduct regime change. As we failed to secure and transition into a proper occupation, a security gap was realized. Thus, different groups began to accumulate people, guns, and money. Limited attacks and coersion started dividing a once somewhat homogenous populace
into ethnic and sectarian lines. When Zarqawi hit the scene with the Samarra Mosque bombing, the situation escalated into a Mao Phase 3 or civil war.

Thoughts?

v/r

Mike