My objection to the COIN Religion is that it DOES require lopsided math like that. We have to play fair, the other guys do not.

Moreover, in playing fair and "doing COIN right" with the GPF increased casualties are a given. Add those increased casualties to the impatience of the American public (and Armed Forces...) for tangible results quickly, generally an impossible task in COIN like operations and you have a recipe for a screw up. Those are historical facts.

Thus I contend that COIN situations that might require GPF commitment are to be rigorously avoided unless there is no other option. I can think of no US operation of any size since WW II where GPF commitment to COIN efforts could not have been avoided. Nor can I think of one that has seen the GPF committed that was truly successful as opposed to ending with only a marginally decent outcome at best. One that probably was not worth the cost. While our commitment to Afghanistan is not complete, I doubt it will change that assessment.

So called COIN operations teach bad habits -- the Army today still has a number of residual Viet Nam induced problems -- and are ferociously expensive in all terms for the benefit derived. People that go around looking for places to deploy and do this stuff need to replace Bob's World's Intel weenies on point.

The Army and Marines need to be prepared for them, no question. However the policy folks need to understand that it will not be easy, will not be pretty and will likely not solve the problem they should have addressed earlier through other means. The Army and Marines should avoid these things like the Plague -- not least because that's what they are. Like the plague, they're equal opportunity killers, no slack for either side, no benefit except lowering the overpopulation counter a tad...