Two fundamental questions haven't been asked by the State types that are completely hampering our efforts.
1. Is AFghanistan a viable country in a post cold war era?
2. Is the Constitution of Afghanistan a legitimate reflection of the needs of the Afghan people.

We have hitched ourselves to a government founded in a Western European Socialist government Constitution. While lip service is paid to Islam, the list of promises it makes is ridiculous and unfufillable. Combine that with Provincial Governors appointed by Karzai, yet without any monetary carrot or stick to use. They can be blamed for all as governors, yet they have zero ability to influence their provinces.
The Provincial ANP Chiefs report directly to Kabul, despite the regional police headquarters, which have no corresponding civilian leadership.
The ANA work for the Afghan RC Commander. The coalition reports to the ISAF RC. The PRT works for HQ Kabul with coordination to the RCs. Yet the governor stands there as the senior representative of the Kabul Government. He does NOT stand there as the representative of the Province he serves in.
The parliment is toothless and ineffective by both tradition and the Constitution.

The governance at the Provincial level (where you are going to win or lose) is a shake with no foundation and several forces working against that stability. That a governor can be removed on a whim (or allowed to stay against the wishes of the population) just defeats so many basic principles as to be laughable.

The Afghan population can be won. But the current guise of the IGoA is one that I believe will never be supported by the population as a whole.

The Sherzai fiasco really burned our bridges in the South and I think our current troubles in the past few years can be more directly linked to that act of stupidity than any other.