South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

I was at the celebration of the opening of the SPLA HQ in 2008. President of GOSS Kiir was the speaker; most in the SPLA/M understand the aspirations of John Garang was for a united Sudan; but, what from what I understand Kirr will support an independent Southern Sudan.

As I understand it, that is what Museweny wanted and effectively not Garang. But Garang is dead. So the vision of a unified Sudan with 2 sub states will not be.

The entire foundation is based on oil.

True and not. The deep roots of the second Sudan civil war can be also found in the first civil war and in the pastoralist culture that is shared by all ethnical groups from North to South Sudan. I was in Chad in 2005 and it was the same #### about land, water and cows. The oil question was flying much too high for the average fighter.

The situation in Sudan was once defined by one of the locals as similar to an onion; peel off one layer and you find another layer of discord, tribalism and conflict

You read my mind.

This split within the "party" is the foundation for armed conflict within the tribes in the South, accurately defined as the Dinka and Neuer tribes. I might add, the Vice President of GOSS is Neuer.

If only you had just Neuer and Dinka... But you forget the Toposa, the Murule, the I do not know what...
What kills that country, part from actually in power SPLA is the marriage bride. As long as a young guy cannot give 200 cows, at least, he is not a man. And the elders will mocke him and he will never have any chances to have a place in the society. So he takes an AK and goes for cattle raiding. And greedy politicians (may be stupid) take advantage of it rather than trying to solve the problem.

Anyways, welcome to comment, analyse and counter analyse South Sudan unfinished war.

M-A