South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan referendum law endorsed in cabinet, 51% ‘Yes’ vote & 60% turnout required
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33451

This shows how bad Khartoum wants to get rip of South Sudan. Well at their place I would do the same: South Sudan government went to bankrupt not even 5 years after being in charge.
There is ethnic violence all over the place.
Oil plants are in North, oil fields in South not exploited.
And basically no state and even less nation in South… Government even went to warn its administration members against self promotions for higher salaries.

Good news for once! :

Two UNAMID staff released by Darfur hostage takers
December 13, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – Kidnappers in Darfur today released two civilian employees of the joint United Nations-African Union peacekeeping mission. The Nigerian man and Zimbabwean woman had been held since August 2009.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33454

And now the proof that I am a master of evil in control of the world not knowing it, just like annonced in the The Conspiracy Thread

Sudan points fingers at France in stirring this week’s demonstrations
The Sudanese government today accused France of standing behind the demonstrations staged this week by a coalition of Northern opposition parties along with the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM).

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33444

Yes we do do that sometimes… But we don’t take hostages!
And supporting “nice guys” as Hassan Al-Turabi… Yes we do do that also, sometimes… But we don’t take hostages!
Supporting the ICC and support Bashir arrest… Yes we definitively do do that. But we don’t take hostages!
Meeting with armed movements from Darfur? Oh yes, we do do that! For the best or the worst. Depend on which end of the gun you are.

For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!

[M-A Lagrange]

Sorry, today, I did not have time to look for English versions.

Angelina Joli criticizes Barak Obama on Darfour.

http://www.parismatch.com/People-Mat...-Obama-152319/

Just to give an idea, here is the US strategy for Sudan:
The U.S. strategy in Sudan must focus on ending the suffering in Darfur, and building a lasting peace. The three principal U.S. strategic priorities in Sudan include:
• 1) A definitive end to conflict, gross human rights abuses, and genocide in Darfur.
• 2) Implementation of the North-South CPA that results in a peaceful post-2011 Sudan, or an orderly path toward two separate and viable states at peace with each other.
• 3) Ensure that Sudan does not provide a safe haven for international terrorists.


About the hostages:

Also, Chadian general Oki Dagache accused Sudanese secret services to be behind the 3 French hostages’ abductions in Chad and Central Africa.
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/depeches/0...24@7-60,0.html

For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan presses US special envoy on lifting sanctions

December 15, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – The US special envoy to Sudan General Scott Gration met with a number of officials here who urged his government to ease the decade long unilateral sanctions imposed stressing that they are no longer justified.
The Sudanese finance and national economy minister Awad Al-Jaz told Gration that debt relief is one of the peace deliverables and part of the Oslo donors’ conference obligations adding that Sudan has made substantial efforts in improving economic growth as shown in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports.
Al-Jaz stressed that Sudan is working on sustainable and balanced development as well putting efforts to bring peace to the war ravaged region of Darfur.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33477

Is that the bargain? Debt relief against hostages?

What ever comments Mr Gration can do, the elections will not be free, frai and transparent. Registration has been a success because population almost did not have the choice. Registration is nothing! What will count are the results and how they achieve those results and what will be the out comes of those results.
If it’s another fake government who tells its population (and I quote): “tell me what you need and I will make sure the UN will give it to you…”
Then guy, move, make war, what ever but do not participate to that joke.

South Sudan demands ancestral land from Uganda

Muki Batali Bulli, the Commissioner of Kajo-Keji County, South Sudan demands ancestral land that Uganda has "extended ownership claims."
The meeting convened in Moyo last week to discuss the border dispute between Uganda and South Sudan’s Kajo-Keji County turned chaotic after the Uganda team dismissed Sudanese’s claiming of more areas of Moyo and Yumbe districts.
In the 17-paged report presented by the Kajo Keji commissioner, Muki Batali Bulli, the Sudanese community of Kuku did not only claim "ancestral” ownership of the 5km-stretch of land that has been at the centre of the conflict but also other areas in Moyo and Yumbe.
The meeting chaired by the Ugandan international affairs state minister, Henry Okello Oryem, at Multipurpose Hall in Moyo town on Saturday, was attended by political leaders and elders from both countries including South Sudan Central Equatoria State Gov. Clement Wani Konga.
In Kampala, the Ugandan State Minister for Regional Cooperation, Okello Oryem, confirmed the meeting saying South Sudanese officials demanded a 5 km (3 miles) portion of Ugandan land at a meeting on December 12.
"It’s true the Sudanese claimed ownership of a bigger chunk of land but of course we have colonial maps and other documents that clearly state where the border lies and I’m confident we’ll reach an agreement when we meet in January,"
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33455

Looks like nothing this, but it’s a huge problem to come. Land is the best war promoter in Africa.
Sudan can claim for ancestral land, but they rather should ask Uganda to invade them. Ugandan troops are deployed inside South Sudan from the tri border point between Uganda, Kenya and Sudan up to Darfur.
I wonder how much colonial maps did include Darfur as a part of Uganda?

All right, they are hunting down LRA (On that, See the excellent threat COIN case: LRA). But GoSS is much too happy to welcome Ugandan troops on his soil, while population all over just doesn’t see it the same way. Ugandan troops come with families, with traders, with plenty people. They take some land to settle, waiting to come back with the troops.
In Magwi County, they don’t even bother anymore in asking to Sudanese elders the right to take land, they just take it. According to various definitions, it is basically a form of colonization.
South Sudan went close to war with its best military supporter Kenya due to border issues. Tanks and the best SPLA were deployed for several weeks on the border.

If they don’t manage to go at war with North, they definitively are looking for other bordering alternatives. But! What can do a government (and its neighbors) when its army looks like a gang? Apply the Rwandan strategy. If you want to stay in power: send your generals abroad to make war!

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan urges France to review its colonial policy

Foreign ministry spokesperson Muawiya Osman Khalid condemned on Wednesday the "French irrational attitudes that throw rocks hinders the path of peaceful settlement in Darfur". He also warned its negative impact would be extended to "Francophonie belt" in central and western Africa.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33480
I love the irrationality to respect law and also the colonialist politic of France in Africa… Coming from a man who considers that 2 third of the people of the country he is ruling are slaves with a lower humanity that dogs… Let me laugh.
Yes there are new partnerships in Africa but this does not change the bottom line: you do not compromise with people under investigations of the ICC.

Well, what about US? Can Khartoum really afford to use such words against US?
Are US congress men all irrational colonialists?
Guess what? Most probably apparently.

Congress presses for harder line on Sudan diplomacy, arms embargo

USCIRF Commission Chairman Leonard A. Leo, having recently returned from a five day visit to Khartoum, said "it is time for the United States to exercise strength. The policy of engagement – ‘cookies and gold stars’ – is not working. It is emboldening Khartoum to a point where this peace process is perilously close to failure."
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33478

Just to remind every body of what is freedom of speech in Sudan during presidential elections:

Sudan says it will not permit any demonstrations by opposition

The Sudanese presidential adviser and the former director of the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) Salah Gosh told a convention for the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) that the government will crack down “on any attempts to stir up the absurdity and the destabilization of the country’s security”.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33487


Could, one day only, African politician stop undermining this continent?

Mbeki softens stance on Darfur hybrid court proposal
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33484

Just like with Bob who is killing Zimbabwe, Mbeki is playing his soft diplomacy again about Sudan and Bashir.

Soft diplomacy is a perversion of African traditions. Yes: countries sovereignty has to be respected but justice is independent.
A transparent and fair trial is not hold on the crime scene!


For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!

[M-A Lagrange]

SPLM says will not endorse national security bill

The current law, the 1999 National Security Forces Act, allows the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) to arrest and detain people without charge for up to nine months, and without judicial review for six months. It also grants them broad powers of search and seizure, and contains immunity provisions.
Yaser Arman, the leader of SPLM block at the Sudanese parliament and SPLM deputy Secretary General for northern Sudan, told Sudan Tribune Thursday they reiterated their opposition to the national security bill during the meeting because they "are opposed the powers to arrest, detention, search and seizure, and immunities for national security personnel," he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33492

I agree with them but they have to propose something. The old strategy of being opposed to everything did not work in any of the African countries. Opposition has to come with propositions and bill draft, not just oppose.


South Sudan army minister says peace is vital for growth

Defense forces have a critical responsibility of preserving, protecting and defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country to safeguard citizens from internal and external aggression, the minister said.
Nhial further blatantly admitted Government cognizant of numerous challenges particularly those personnel in the defense force faces in carrying out their duties, he called on men and women in uniforms not to deviate from the cause of the SPLM.

Here again, who will disagree with such the assertion that defense forces have the responsibility to protect and defend the people? No one.

But in a nation, an army (here the SPLA) is not the army of a party (the SPLM).
Once again, nation building hits at full speed its limits and our great incapacity to introduce and conduct security reforms in post conflict countries and fragile states.
Nations are built on two things: the ownership of power sharing mechanism by the people (democracy) AND the ownership violence monopoly by the people through defense forces (the submission of the army to a State apparatus and not a party).
US army is the tool of a nation not the property of a man or a party.

SPLA has to be the tool of a nation and not the armed wing of a party.
What we are building in South Sudan is a democratic dictatorship.
Elections are not fake because parties will tickle the boxes but because democratic power basics are not in place in Sudan.

As long as the elite of North and South Sudan will not be able to separate military and political power, the democratisation process supported by the UN will never build a democratic nation. It will just give another flavor to a dictatorship. In Sudan as in so many other places…
But by saying so, I just said that nation building is not just limited to elections and replacing an elite by another. I just rejected all assumptions of nation building as we do it to day.

But the worst comes from IGC:

the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the situation in the run-up to national elections due next year and the early 2011 referendum on self-determination in the South. It concludes that key elements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the two-decades-long civil war between North and South Sudan, have not been implemented. The failure to foster democratic transformation in the North has also undermined the chances for political settlement in Darfur and exacerbated tensions in other parts of the country.
“Sudan is sliding towards violent breakup, and time is running out” says Fouad Hikmat, Crisis Group’s Sudan Adviser. “Less than thirteen months remain to ensure that national elections and the South’s self-determination referendum lead to democratic transformation and stability in the country”.
The current negotiations between President Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) cannot achieve an all-Sudan peace. Both want elections but for the wrong reasons. Bashir’s party wants to re-establish its political legitimacy, the SPLM to ensure that the referendum, which must be no later than 9 January 2011, goes ahead.

http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6438&l=1

In one word, neither North nor South are looking to build a democratic nation through an electoral process but are looking for a just war coming from electoral boxes.

And the proof of how bad it is from Small Arms Survey :
According to Small Arms Survey, North army is strong of 225000 men and 310000 small fire arms. South army is strong of 125000 men with 175000 small fire arms. This is naturally without counting the 2 000 000 small arms hold by civilian population. Neither the 100 tanks bought by South and North military industrial capacity.

[M-A Lagrange]

There has been a lot of news about South Sudan this week end. Elections, yes! But also many on core issues as the security bill, local governance, climate…

First the serious news:

Parliament voted the security bill

The law voted on Sunday still gives power to National Security to arrest and conduct investigations without real accusations but the duration of detention has passed from 3 times 3 months to a maximum of 4.5 months.
In fact the details are not that much different from what we have in our post 9/11 western countries.
SPLM voted against and the National Alliance, Minni Minnawi’s party (from Darfur) left the parliament…

In fact SPLM point is very clear and is one more time linked to CPA. This law does not comply with transitional CPA constitution.
But as they do not comply so much with CPA constitution is South, specially on SPLA deployment locations… I wonder to who we could throw the first stone.

Anyway, Human Right Watch already denounced it. I wonder what they will say when South Sudan will pass an internal security Bill…
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...Ow49EJlorMlahw
(in French)

Elections:

Once again, Catholic Church is call for rescue and legitimacy.
Governor calls on church for moral supports during elections
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33525

More seriously, once again, fake elections will cost a huge amount of money:
UNDP funds $91m programme to support Sudan’s election
The UNDP program, which is funded by the governments of Italy, United Kingdom, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Spain, Japan, Netherlands, France and the European Commission, will cover all the materials needed for the elections including voting cards, ballot boxes, and educational campaigns for voters, together with training sessions for election officers and local police.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33503
After the disastrous election funding in DRC, EU tries again to buy an African country…

Local governance:
South Sudan calls for traditional leadership involvement in conflict resolution
The government of the semi autonomous region of South Sudan has called for traditional leadership involvement in conflict resolution in the region awash with fire arms and other weapons.
The regional government has in recent past witnessed regular killing of innocent people mostly children, women elderly and other vulnerable groups.
It is also experiencing public hateful and/or divisive speeches mainly from intellectuals seeking political appointments in the government as alternatives to reaching compromises.
Do not want to be arch on this but once again, central African power calls “tradition” to the rescue. When will we escape from the infernal circle of the African tradition as the solution to all the problems, especially bad governance and corruption?
If intellectuals are complaining about governance, monopoly of violence, accountability… It’s not in appointing local illiterate traditional chief that thingswill change.
South Sudan is just taking the old path of a too well known African dictatorial regime. I guess the advice comes from Uganda. Former Ugandan leader used the same trick to lower down intellectual opposition.

In my knowledge, it’s the same local traditional leaders who are complaining the youth is not listening to them.

As stated into the very well documented and excellent “guide to rebuild governance in stability operations: a role for the military?”, traditional leaders are often the source of ultra local conflicts and use of violence.

Then the funny news:

Climate:
Some are trying to use Darfur as the first climate war.
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/...bonne-note.php
Well, I am sorry, but Darfur war is based on power sharing and development benefit access. It is not even an ethnic war. Environmental changes have nothing to do with that ever going on war that pop up in western news papers only in 2004.
What happened in Darfur since 2004 is more or less linked with the CPA (even more than less). Khartoum faced an insurgency after being defeated by another insurgency. The response is the worst in the word, yes. But it is not due to climate. Otherwise Chadian war is due to climate. And my experience in that beautiful sunny sandy desert tells me that mass population movement and thousands years of no environmental management is far from being at the center of the conflict. Politics, yes.
Climate may be the war cause of tomorrow but do not try to reduce once again complex African political issues on power and economical access into a small tiny box!
African wars are as political as Western, Arab, South American, Asian wars! To quote Wilf quoting Clausewitz: war is politic.

I guess, as the opinion is coming from Quebec, it’s just Canada trying to get access to its oil fields. (But I am a political paranoid).

And still the hostages:

Red Cross calls for unconditional release of kidnapped staff members.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33522
Message is clear, nothing to add.


For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!

[Stan]

onto my keyboard and monitor

"With the financial support, provided by the donors, the NEC can affirm its ability to organize free, fair and credible elections", he added.

Have any of these so-called donors ever seen a free and fair election in Africa

I did get kick out of the Carter Center's "However" regarding their campaign contributions

Unfortunately, 13 of Sudan's 25 states fell short of the NEC's registration targets, including all three states in the Darfur region.

So, exactly how many people really did register ?

[negotiator6]

Nuba Mountain, South Kordafan State: 2002
Juba, Sudan 2007-08

All the comments are generally exactly correct. The situation in Sudan was once defined by one of the locals as similar to an onion; peel off one layer and you find another layer of discord, tribalism and conflict.

I was at the celebration of the opening of the SPLA HQ in 2008. President of GOSS Kiir was the speaker; most in the SPLA/M understand the aspirations of John Garang was for a united Sudan; but, what from what I understand Kirr will support an independent Southern Sudan.

This split within the "party" is the foundation for armed conflict within the tribes in the South, accurately defined as the Dinka and Neuer tribes. I might add, the Vice President of GOSS is Neuer.

The entire foundation is based on oil. The Abeyei region in the along the disputed north-south "border" is where the "money is". Even, if the south could secure that region, the oil pipeline runs north past Khartom to the Port of Sudan. The Nuba Mountains is adjacent to the pipeline and under the control of the SPLA..I was in the mountains with the 5th SPLA Front in 2002 commanded by Ismael Karmis..the governor was Abdul Azziz (he remains governor today of South Kordafar State). The SPLA would attack the pipeline daily interrupting the flow. That said, the cease fire agreement signed in late 2001 just for Nuba Mountains was designed to lay the ground work for the CPA and to stop all military action against the pipeline. Nuba Mountains actually is located in the "north"..and as such, was a critical component to the CPA signed in January of 2005.

Should the south "vote" to succeed from Sudan forming a new African state..they would have no access to ports, no pipeline, no all weather roads and surrounded by countries which may or may not support a future Southern Sudanese state (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, DRC)

Other issues I have personal experience includes the UN initiative at DDR..De-mining, Disarm and Re-Integration (the most difficult part).

The UN's ability to organize a "true" election, plus all the other critical components is marginal at best.

And, lastly...the LRA..I absolutely agree..these guys must be killed or captured.

Sudan will be a struggle for many years to come. It was one hell of an experience....

RH

Other travels include SE Afgh/2003 and Iraq/2005..plus the Balkan Wars

[M-A Lagrange]

I was at the celebration of the opening of the SPLA HQ in 2008. President of GOSS Kiir was the speaker; most in the SPLA/M understand the aspirations of John Garang was for a united Sudan; but, what from what I understand Kirr will support an independent Southern Sudan.

As I understand it, that is what Museweny wanted and effectively not Garang. But Garang is dead. So the vision of a unified Sudan with 2 sub states will not be.

The entire foundation is based on oil.

True and not. The deep roots of the second Sudan civil war can be also found in the first civil war and in the pastoralist culture that is shared by all ethnical groups from North to South Sudan. I was in Chad in 2005 and it was the same #### about land, water and cows. The oil question was flying much too high for the average fighter.

The situation in Sudan was once defined by one of the locals as similar to an onion; peel off one layer and you find another layer of discord, tribalism and conflict

You read my mind.

This split within the "party" is the foundation for armed conflict within the tribes in the South, accurately defined as the Dinka and Neuer tribes. I might add, the Vice President of GOSS is Neuer.

If only you had just Neuer and Dinka... But you forget the Toposa, the Murule, the I do not know what...
What kills that country, part from actually in power SPLA is the marriage bride. As long as a young guy cannot give 200 cows, at least, he is not a man. And the elders will mocke him and he will never have any chances to have a place in the society. So he takes an AK and goes for cattle raiding. And greedy politicians (may be stupid) take advantage of it rather than trying to solve the problem.

Anyways, welcome to comment, analyse and counter analyse South Sudan unfinished war.

M-A

[M-A Lagrange]

Apparently not every body’s happy with the previous batch of SPLA/, sorry SPLM/A, in charge:

E. Equatoria SPLM Governorship Election Results must not be overturned by the Political Bureau

January 13, 2010 — SPLM contest for the post of Governorship in the state has been won convincingly by Comrade Louis Lobong Lojore against the incumbent Brig. Aloysius Ejotuk Emor in a contest widely believed to be transparent and fair. Comrade Louis not only beat Comrade Aloysius hand down (21 votes for Louis and 4 votes for Aloysius) but his overwhelming victory sends a strong message to Juba that people voice is a voice of God and if they determine, time or money can’t stop their march. The ball is now with the SPLM Bureau to clear Comrade Louis Lololomoe Aribokinyang without any delay or manipulation!
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33776

Lakes nominations finalized for election – Awet not chosen for governor

January 12, 2010 (RUMBEK) — The Lakes State Electoral College Committee Chairman Abraham Mayen Kuc has officially announced the SPLM candidates nominated for the post of governor and for the geographical constituences in the April 2010 nationwide election. The incumbent governor, Daniel Awet Akot, was not chosen to stand for the post.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33771

What is really interesting is not who is chosen (it does have its importance) but the on going processes of questioning actual in power former SPLA commanders capacity to rule and administrate properly the State they were given.

And for those who are nominated but already in place:

Kiir will not step down as army chief if nominated for presidential election

An official of the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan has ruled out any possibility of General Salva Kiir Mayardit stepping down from the army even if he is nominated as SPLM candidate for presidency.
The minister for Presidential Affairs, Dr. Luka Biong Deng, who is a close aide to Kiir on Wednesday, said Kiir’s candidacy would not need him to step down as commander-in-chief.
He however admitted that presently the SPLA Act states that no member of the SPLA can participate in political activities but said there will be decisions made within the regulations of southern Sudan.
The Southern Sudan interim constitution is however silent about what the aspirant candidates for political positions, while actively serving in the army, should comply with during elections.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33778

Salva Kiir formally nominated for presidency in South Sudan
The Political Bureau of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) has announced the incumbent chairman of the party, General Salva Kiir Mayardit, as the candidate for South Sudan presidency.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33788


Smells like if I loose I still can make a coup… The battle between late Garang supporters and Kiir is raging on.
Anyway, it also addresses the issue of constitution design for post conflict or conflict ending contexts.
The idea to oblige candidates to resign from their positions inside State and South Government was quite a smart move. I believe the intension was to avoid exactly what Kiir is doing. And in fact, it works in most of the States, as SPLM has nominated mainly non governors to run for elections, in order to preserve SPLM control on administration.
On the other hand you have a breakdown of continuity and a dangerous State vacancy if the actual governors do run for elections as independents (as they will in many places).
I believe there are no perfect systems. A system that would forbid anyone already in place to run for elections would not be considered as fair.

Simple questions and complex answers, as usual with Nation Building.

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan electoral board warns Salva Kiir to resign from his military position

The Sudan’s National Elections Commission (NEC) has sent a warning letter to the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan President and the region’s presidential candidate, General Salva Kiir Mayardit, to relinquish his military post in order to qualify to run for the upcoming April 2010 elections.
NEC is a national legal body established by law in 2008 in accordance with the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the Interim Constitution of Sudan, 2005.
It is charged with the responsibility to process and oversee the conduct of the post-war general elections during the interim period and has established branches at Southern Sudan and states levels.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33807
It's a move, but may be not the strongest one.

Much more awaited, even if the results was known, SPLM-DC announced its candidate:

Lam Akol runs for presidency in South Sudan
The former Sudanese foreign and head of the Sudan People Liberation Movement for Democratic Change (SPLM-DC) Lam Akol will run for the post of South Sudan president, according to a statement released by his office.
Akol was a leading figure in the legacy SPLM party but his close ties to the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) led by president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir has alienated his colleagues at the ex-Southern rebel group.
Akol has insisted at the time that the SPLM partnership with the NCP is particularly valuable and also campaigned in favor of the Sudanese President after the issuance by the International criminal Court of an arrest warrant against him.
The alliance expressed support to Bashir candidacy for president of the country.
“President Al Bashir is the only person to sign working peace agreement in Southern Sudan, Darfur, and the Eastern Region….. El Bashir was also credited with stopping wars and the bloodshed which had plagued the nation for so long. Also the inclusive administration instituted by President Al Bashir already is a good step for political pluralism and social and cultural diversity. Mr. Bashir is the very one now working to implement democratic transformation and as it was embodied in the interim Constitution of the country and the CPA and he should be given the chance to continue with this”.
“Bashir has to be given the chance to complete the implementation of the CPA and the other agreement which he had signed while serving current term. Many challenges remain and the alliance of Southern Political partied believes it is only Al Bashir who can overcame the challenges that remain in implementing the peace agreements”.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33797


Now, the real question is being asked. And it shows how much SPLM is not comfortable with those elections.

Should Dr. Lam be allowed to campaign in South Sudan?

In the SPLM-DC nomination statement, Gurtong reports the Secretary of SPLM-DC Charles Kisanga as saying that “there have been big complains and protests from the members of the Alliance of Southern Sudan political parties operating in the Southern Sudan, that they had not been able to file candidates for many constituencies due to intimidation, bullying and arrests by SPLM security forces.” What Mr. Kisanga means by “SPLM security forces” is not clear.

However, this statement raises the question of whether Dr. Lam Akol will be free to campaign in South Sudan against Gen. Kiir or not. South Sudan Minister of Cabinet Affairs Dr. Luka Manoja instructed the Governors of ten states in South Sudan last year to allow all political parties, except SPLM-DC, in the South to conduct their activities freely. SPLM allegedly accused SPLM-DC of being the armed resistance movement that does not qualify to be a political party.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33804

I love the subtile differenciation between SPLM and SPLM-DC. As far as I know, SPLM is the political wing of a rebelion militia (well the agregate of it).
Transition from a military organization to a political one is always a challenge for rebels in Nation Building. South America experiences tend to show that such organizations are not capable to do it.
Other African experiences tend to show that the transition is only in surface (see what happened in Zimbabwe).
In South Sudan, the difference pointed out by Sufferedbeetle between State Building and Nation Building takes all its sense. Those elections are the first step to the referendum which will be a pure Nation Building exercise. Those elections are a State building exercise per definition but also a Nation Building exercise in the sense that South (At least SPLM/A) will have to reveal its true face.
Is SPLM/A are Nation representative machine or just a militia gang as too many others? Will SPLM/A accept to build a Nation with all its political diversities and accept to be challenged?
Will South be able to build its future out of the war?
Accepting SPLM-DC campaign will be the proof that SPLM can live without Khartoum. That South Sudan as a Nation is something that does exist further than the "my hamster grazing rights" claim or policy (to use Wilf definition).
The main danger in Nation Building is to build a fake apparatus that will just hide the real roots of the tensions. The temptation is high to just place people you have the habit to deal with and not address the real questions. Stabilization in Nation Building is not just addressing the on going small scale conflicts but it's also building a process that allows to prevent up coming conflicts.

[M-A Lagrange]

First the next episode of the elections and Salva Kiir legal prblems:

Gen. Salva Kiir should relinquish his military position

The SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum was quoted by a local newspaper, The Juba Post, as saying that his party’s chairman will step down from being the army chief as the law requires.
Amum also added that the party’s candidate for the position of the President at the national level, Yasir Saeed Arman, will also resign from his current position as party’s Deputy Secretary General for Northern Sector and focus on the presidential campaigns.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33843

The list of the candidates for South Sudan:

Uper Nile: Simon Kun Puoc (SPLM); NO (NCP)

Unity: Taban Deng (SPLM); Paul Leli (NCP)

Warrap: Nyandeng Malek Deliec (SPLM); Mayur Akeli (NCP)

Jonglei: Kuol Manyang Juuk (SPLM); Josepgh Dower Jacob (NCP)

Eastern Equatoria: Louis Lobong Lojore (SPLM); Andalla Albert (NCP)

Central Equatoria: Clement Wani Konga (SPLM);James Luro (NCP)

Lakes: Chol Tong Mayay (SPLM); Thomas Pan Melik (NCP)

Northern Bahr El-Ghazal: Paul Malong Awan (SPLM); Joseph Ajwang (NCP)

Western Bahr El-Ghazal: Rizig Zakaria Hassan (SPLM); Steven Musa (NCP)
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33840

Interresting but not suprising, NCP is not even trying in Upper Nile. Must say that Malakal is not really a pro NCP place. In 2009 combats between former SAF militia lead by Gabriel Tang and SPLA killed 50 and wounded 100. In 2006 combats between the same killed more than 100.
But that was hard breach of the CPA by the way…

Then the next episode of China takes over the world and becomes a Western like power:

China may send observers for Sudan’s April election

Abdalla Ahmed Abdalla, Deputy Chairman of the National Election Commission, met recently with the Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China Li Chengwen. They discussed "preparations for arrival of a Chinese delegation to participate in the monitoring of the coming elections in Sudan," according to the official Sudan News Agency (SUNA).

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33833

Please welcome the State building "a la chinoise". Elections are fake? So let's go! I love when we basically are morally shooting our selves in the foot and end up with a brain damage!

[M-A Lagrange]

US Congress reps. seek to commemorate Sudan’s CPA

January 20, 2010 (WASHINGTON) — Three Republican congressmen introduced a resolution in the US House of Representatives today to belatedly recognize the fifth anniversary of the signing of Sudan’s Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and call for "urgent and aggressive actions to establish peace in all regions of Sudan."

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33854

I do not know what they call an aggressive action to establish peace in all region of Sudan. Few days ago, AFRICOM was optimist about the elections and USA Special Envoy also. As all the NGOs covering the elections (Carter Centre… ) also as well as the electoral observers. Even China decided to enter in the dance…
The real question is not peace between North and South. Peace as the absence of war is there. Peace as Spinoza describes it… It's another subject.

In fact it's not the election and the insecurity that such exercise brings with him which is the problem. The problem is far much simple. The main problematic in South Sudan nowadays is economical.
Yes the Nuer and the Dinka are fighting… On power and oil… In Warrap or Jonglei…
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/...nt&rc=1&cc=sdn

But average violence is due to poverty. In Yambio what started the fire last week is just the delay in payment for students' performance incentives during CPA anniversary.

Now, let's have a look at the complex dance of the elections:

SPLM candidate vows to work for Sudan’s unity
In a press conference held at the SPLM premises after his arrival to Khartoum and an important reception by supporters, Arman vowed to work for voluntary unity between the north and the south. He also said he would present a political program that the south fought for.
Arman further described his candidacy for the presidency as a "gift" from the south to the north and a greeting to the west and center. He further added that his candidacy restores confidence and rehabilitates the North-South relations.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33866

Kiir’s presidential advisor declares independent candidacy for governorship

Alfred Lado Gore, a veteran politician and advisor to President Salva Kiir Mayardit on Diplomatic Affairs on Thursday declared his intention to run for the post of governor for Central Equatoria state as an independent candidate.
Gore’s nomination was turned down last week by the party’s highest political organ, the SPLM Political Bureau, in favor of the incumbent governor Maj. General Clement Wani Konga.
He sounded confident, saying he enjoys popularity among the citizens of Central Equatoria state and criticized the Political Bureau for taking an “unpopular decision among the people” during the selection exercise. . He further explained that he took the decision to contest independently because of “popular demand” on him among the people of Central Equatoria state.
The SPLM official said he would not leave his party but work to maintain its popularity in the state by bringing on board his supporters.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33863

The guy is resigning from his job. At the best moment, South Sudan just do not need a wise guy for diplomacy right now…
Already Salva Kiir is facing internal opposition inside SPLM as the line at national level is Unity and the line at South Sudan level (His line) is independence. And now key people are running independent…
To be frank, this is what happens when in the name of peace, you put every body in the same box and say now you are all friends and you gonna work it out.
Basically there are 2 different approach. The South Sudan one and the DRC one.
In South Sudan, all opponent of North were put in a box called SPLM to ease State building job and avoid civil war (what a result on the last one!). I'll call it the all=1 approach.
In DRC, they ended up with 4 vice presidents and 1 president the 4+1 approach.

I just do not know how this will end up but the 4+1 approach had the advantage to be more "democracy like" than the all=1 approach. Not that DRC is a stunning success, far from it, but at least elections preparation was less messy and civil war was limited to elections results publication.
It's also the problem of having an international community who's taking side unilaterally not for the "good guys" but against the "bad guys".
I mean, if we really want State building to work out and end up with Weberian States supported by a strong administration and promoting Democracy (Here I put a "D" on purpose), the enemy of my enemy is my friend strategy is just too limited.
And let's make a stupid comment: The 4+1 is culturally more accurate most of the time. Even it creates a Hydra which is less easy to manage than the All=1 Chimera.

But let's talk about future (?)

UN chief urges Sudanese to discuss post-referendum arrangements
January 22, 2010 (NEW YORK) — UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon urged the Sudanese parties of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to address the post referendum arrangements to shun war.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33876

Ah… ??? shouldn't we be looking at post elections first.
As JMM says: let's shoot the 25 m target first. But I believe that it's preventive (even preemptive) action.

Step by step gentlemen please. The fubar potential is already there.


And finally the "So Smart" move from Khartoum:

Sudan revokes licenses of 26 aid groups in Darfur, warns dozen others

The following groups have their licenses cancelled according to the decree; 1- Prospect Sudan 2- Counterpart International 3- Feed the Children 4- Food for the Hungry 5- Safe Harbor 6- The Halo Trust 7- Right to Play 8- Air Serve 9- Mercy International 10- Global Peace Mission 11- Population Media Centre 12- Sudanese International Development and Relief Association (SIDRA) 13- Royal Dutch Aid 14- Canadian Association for African Development 15- SPEG- Holland 16- Norwegian League for Disabled 17- African Association for Development 18- Health Assistance for Children (HAFC) 19- Nabata Charitable Foundation 20- Impact 21- Cins- Italy 22- Ulfa Aid 23- Joint Projects Organization 24- Arabic Centre for Immigrant Labors 25- Tomp/Germany 26- Human Relief and Peace.

The second set of organizations received an unspecified warning to adjust status in accordance with the law but no details were furnished. They include Stromme Foundation 2. Veterinaraires Sans Forntieres- Germany 3. Planned Parenthood 4. (International Centre for Agricultural Research in Dry Area(ICARDA 5. Deniz Feneri 6. International Blue Crescent Relief 7. Handicap International 8. (Education Action International (Former was University Services Org 9. Movimondo 10. Sudanese Mothers for Peace 11. Panos Sudan 12. Eritrean Islamic Relief 13. One Earth.

A humanitarian war crime to come?
Please have a look at that threat: Humanitarian action: a Just action?

M-A

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan would face humanitarian crisis after referendum

"We have to be ready, we have to have plans," said Southern Sudan government Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management James Kok Ruea before UN officials and aid groups in a meeting held in Juba today.
"The needs will be enormous, so we will need your support," he added.
[…]
"If the Islamic system in the north (National Congress Party government) decided to interrupt the smooth running of the referendum, then what do you think the situation is going to be?" He asked. "There will be tension and likely it will go back to war," he further added.
"What happens when fighting takes place? People are killed, properties are lost, the most vulnerable group are children, women, and elderly people. There would be massive displacement," he warned.
The U.N. Deputy Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Southern Sudan, Lise Grande, said donors have been very generous with Southern Sudan but said many people in the south still suffer..
Tribal violence in Southern Sudan last year killed some 700 people and displaced over 150,000, the UN reported.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36012

Ok, that minister to keep his job needs a war. But in fact, he is so representative of South Sudan administration. SPLM and SPLA members do not know how to manage peace. If you give a close look at the situation, there is no police dispatch in rural areas, no real administration at county level… Then no real justice, no real understanding of the State and then democratic game by villagers.
The policemen are being kept as bodyguards by administrative staff in State/Province capital as if they were personal armies. They still manage the place as if they were in the bush fighting, securing road trades for personnal enrichment…
Even if South Sudan does not go at war with North, they will try to keep this place is state of emergency to have external powers to run it and flowed them with relief aid. What they do not get is that every body is tired of this, starting by the donors.
Still a long road to go for the people of South Sudan.

[M-A Lagrange]

Many tings have occurred in the past days in South Sudan. So 2 post in once cause otherwise I'll get crazy editing the stuff.

First of all, SPLM stepped back from its positions concerning the referendum commission.
In fact, some are saying that external players as Mr Gration are not for nothing in that...

SPLM concedes position of the referendum body SG
The veteran lawyer Omer Al-Sheik, who worked in the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), is expected to be tapped as the commission’s secretary general.
The SPLM launched a fierce media campaign against Al-Sheik, accusing him of "incompetence" and "failure" during his tenure in MINURSO and as such he is not fit to hold the SG position.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36046

US envoy Gration brokered breakthrough in referendum body deadlock

A source privy to the situation told Sudan Tribune yesterday on condition of anonymity that it was the US special envoy, Scott Gration who persuaded the SPLM’s leadership to concede the position. In return, the source says, Gration had promised the SPLM that the referendum would be held as scheduled and that it would get the position of the commission’s deputy secretary-general which will be based in the south.
Furthermore, the source revealed that officials of the UN and the International Foundation for Elections System (IFES), a body providing technical assistance to the referendum process, told Gration in a meeting on Friday, August 20, at a donor office in Juba that his estimates of holding the referendum on time were “legally impossible.”, in reference to the timing constraints stipulated in the referendum act.
But Yasir Arman said that the SPLM had also decided to alter the scheduling of some of the process’s phases.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36052

Now let’s go for the creeping part of the story:

SPLM Mobilizes Arms, Welcomes New Allies
Learnt sources said, according Sudan Media Center (SMC) delivery of the all aircrafts will be finalized late this August, after pilots and engineers have been trained in Uganda and the USA, who were trained to operate the aircrafts in advanced manner. The aircrafts are expected to be in operation before end of this; however SPLM's Atem Garang denied the deal, describing the reports as cheap propaganda. He affirmed that the movement was not in need of sweeping of said deal under the rug.
In its issue dated Aug. 23, Al-Ahdath Arabic daily reported that the ruling National Congress Party NCP wants SPLM to be at "the mercy and hegemony of the north".

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=60142

South is definitively on the path of war… Yes this comes from SUNA but the official discourses from South Sudan officials is clear: we will be independent, and North will do as we say. Otherwise we will have war. And if we do not get war, we willfind a reason to get a war.
South Sudan is actually topping up to come to the level of Kartoum which announced several weeks ago the construction of the first “African” jet fighter. (Knowing that Egypt did the same several decades ago and South Africa also…)
After tanks, SPLA is getting planes. Next step? A navy?

But the real creepy news comes from Khartoum:

Sudan Prepares to Instal First Nuclear Rector for Research Purpose SUNA
Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency, scientists of the Sudanese Authority for Atomic Energy Agency and representatives of the Ministry of Electricity and Dams, NSIS,
Civil Defense got engaged in intensive meetings at the Civil Defense Head Quarters in Khartoum yesterday to discuss the feasibility study of importing the first nuclear reactor in Sudan for the purposes of scientific research.
The feasibility study has started earlier this year, after the approval by the International Atomic Energy Agency on the possibility of Sudan to acquire two nuclear reactors for electricity generation and scientific research purposes.
Addressing the inaugural session, Director-General of the Sudan Atomic Energy Agency, Prof. Mohamed Ahmed Hassan Tayeb stressed the importance of having the technologies of peaceful uses of atomic energy as well as the instrumentality of the research reactor and its contribution to the national infrastructures.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=60124

North Sudan is willing to get the second nuclear reactor of African continent! Yes, the second one, because the first one is in… DRC! Chilling isn’t?

Well, I know a guy in Iran who just said the same. But launching air strikes from Juba or Uganda will be easier than from Tel Aviv…But may be not. Some lessons from 2006 Lebanon war still have not been learned may be.
Anyways, it's China who will be happy. Now they can openly do nuclear business. No need to sneek in nuclear material for Iran anymore, it's civilian Sudan nuclear plan business...

[M-A Lagrange]

And finally, I believe the GoSS does read our posts in SWJ or at least the same books:

The Chinese government is keen on investing in the oil and agricultural sectors in South Sudan.
Speaking upon her arrival from China where she attended the China African Agricultural Forum, the newly-appointed Government of Southern Sudan’s Minister for Agriculture and Forestry Dr Anne Itto told the press that China has expressed her interest in developing South Sudan.
“From the discussions we had with the Chinese government, it is interested in having more oil blocks. It also wants to invest in minerals. It also expressed real interest to further develop their relationships with the ruling party, the SPLM”, Dr Itto said.
She added that China’s primary interest is not political but a partnership that would allow them to invest for the benefit of South Sudanese.

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...1/Default.aspx

GoSS Seeks to Promote Private Sector
“It is our collective responsibility, be it the government, private sector and individuals to ensure that business skills which have been paralysed by the 20 – year civil war is revived for the prosperity of this nation”, said Pan.
The Director General explained that South Sudan’s market is a free market economy hence the government cannot impose laws restricting prices.
“Unless people begin producing local commodities to impact prices on the market, the people will continue buying at the current prices”, he cautioned.
“It would be upon us to utilise the fertile lands for agriculture since the government would never settle all our needs. The role of the government is to provide security and create a conducive atmosphere for its citizens to explore their talents for survival”, he said.

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...3/Default.aspx

Welcome to the ultra liberal popular republic of South Sudan!
We will see if it either generates some taxes incomes or just sunk the common people in a poverty hole. Economist should remember that before regulating or deregulating the market, you actually need a market. That means a minimum solvability among the population. And relief aid just does not provide that. I know, there are cash for aid programs were you distribute cash straight to the people so they suddenly become solvable. Which is not a so much great idea as when you earn money for nothing, then you wonder why you do not always get your check for free…
But if there is a market booming in South, it’s the one of beer! After 20 years of war for the right to drink, South Sudan beer market is over booming. May be we should assess the effect on the security sector…

SABMiller Doubles Output of S.Sudan Brewery
SABMiller said on Friday it would double output at its brewing operations in southern Sudan by the end of the year, a sign of the economic boom taking root in the former war zone.
The decision to lift capacity to 350,000 hectolitres from 180,000 when the Juba-based brewery opened in May 2009 also suggests confidence in the stability of the south, which is likely to vote for independence in a January referendum.
"Many people questioned our logic in building not only the first brewery that southern Sudan had seen for 50 years but also the first manufacturing facility in Juba," said Ian Alsworth-Elvey, managing director of Southern Sudan Beverages Ltd (SSBL).
"However, the business has had a very warm welcome to the country and our beer, soft drinks and water brands have found real traction with consumers," he said.

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...9/Default.aspx

And finally, to come back to our main subject: how to destabilize a future neighboring country, Khartoum is practicing agressive economic warfare:

South Sudan bank running out of foreign currency
The finance minister for the semi-autonomous region of Southern Sudan said on Monday that the government there is running short in foreign currency because of Khartoum remitting the South’s share of oil revenue in local currency.
David Deng Athorbei, the regional minister of finance and economic planning, who made the revelation said the move by the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) was deliberate.
“This is a clear and complete violation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. It is one of the most serious violations of the CPA because it has dire consequences,” said Athorbei.
Under the 2005 landmark peace deal between the north and the south, the Government of Southern Sudan’s 50% share of revenues generated from oil within its territory should be paid in hard currency into accounts managed by the Bank of Southern Sudan.
Athorbei noted that this was not the first time the central bank had changed payments for the oil exported from foreign currencies to Sudanese pounds.
“The changing of the hard currencies especially dollars has political motivations and was intentionally coined to suppress [the] economy of south Sudan. This is not the first time it is happening. They have done a lot in the past but [… ] not to this extent”, said the minister.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36049

That’s all folks.

[M-A Lagrange]

Russia warns from new Somalia in South Sudan

"We as an international community and countries that are permanent Security Council members do not want a new Somalia in South Sudan"

http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36079

Mr Margelov made this comment after a meeting in Cairo with the Arab League. He resumed very clearly what South Sudan is facing and would face after the referendum.
But SPLM is trying to make it attractive, does it please you or not:

China must recognize referendum result to retain oil assets

The only way for China to retain its millions-worth of oil assets in Sudan is to cultivate a “strong” relationship with the semi-autonomous region of south Sudan and recognize the outcome of a referendum due in January 2011 on the region’s possible independence, says south Sudan official.
Anne Itto, south Sudan’s minister of agriculture, told reporters yesterday in the region’s capital Juba upon returning from China that the Chinese government fears that its assets in Sudan’s oil would be “a waster” if the south opts for secession.
“A lot of wild rumors have been getting to them, that if the south separates, there will be insecurity, and if there is insecurity, their assets worth billions of dollars in the form of pipelines and so on will have been a waste,” she said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36022

I wonder how much China is confident in SPLM to be capable to secure its investments in South. And I am not that sure that threatening them with USA in mind is the solution. Cause, like it or not, China will deal with who is in power.
Some were already saying that Darfur was a "cold war" between China and USA. Well, are the US really ready to extend it to South Sudan. The potential of doing more harm than good is extremely high and dam real.
It would be somehow sad that the new US strategy in the sub region can be resume to creating another Great Lakes war.

[M-A Lagrange]

First of all, some Kenyans are a little upset with Bashir visit. (Some Gration hand behind this already?)

Kenya’s PM party distances itself from Bashir’s visit as more details emerge on trip

“We would like to point out to Kenyans and the international community that this was indeed a very unfortunate visit that could put into question the commitment of the government to implement the Constitution of the second republic in letter and spirit,” Nyong told a news conference on Saturday according to Capital FM website.
SOUTH SUDAN ANGRY AT KENYA
"Our president was all set to travel to Nairobi for the ceremony and had even sent his advance team, only to be called by President Bashir on Thursday afternoon informing him that he would be in Nairobi. Mr Kiir had no choice but to cancel his trip because protocol does not allow them to travel out of the country at the same time,” said the head of the Southern Sudan referendum campaign, John Andruga Duku.

http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36107

Just this resumes so well the atmosphere in Sudan. And Kenya does have a lot to loose with getting angry with South Sudan. Many of the infrastructure companies working actually in South are Kenyan (well Uganda must be happy.)
But Kenya is trying very hard to push China to fund the new Lamu port (which includes an international airport and a pipeline to Sudan oil plants). So inviting Bashir over Kiir does make sense in fact. Especially as China is officially supporting the Khartoum road to referendum. I do believe that China does make huge efforts to seduce Juba but up to now, US and UK bounds remain the most important.
Once again, we have here in fact a diplomatic war between Uganda and Kenya (with US and China behind) on who will get the oil cake market. The one who’s got the most to loose anyways is Kenya as they do not have oil, unlike Uganda. But Kenya does have “secured” boundaries with South Sudan. Last year events in Nadapal have clearly shown who the boss in town. And it’s not South Sudan who still depends on Kenya for its heavy military equipments imports.

South Sudan refutes claims that oil revenues have been paid in hard currency
The central banks governor has also refuted the south’s claims that they are running out of foreign currency. According to Hassan the Bank of Southern Sudan (BoSS) has reserves of up to US$726 million, twice the amount he says that the Central Bank possesses.
Elijah Malok Aleng, deputy governor of the Central Bank of Sudan and a governor of BoSS denied this. After a briefing with south Sudan’s president on Friday, he told South Sudan TV (SSTV) that south Sudan’s reserves were less than half what the central bank claimed.
“We only have a reserve of about US$300 million”, he said.
On Monday 23 August, Athorbe the southern finance minister told a press conference that the central bank’s action was starving the economy of southern Sudan of the hard currency it desperately needs to operate.
“The foreign exchange needed by the business community to pay for imports and to meet their foreign currency obligations and commitments cannot be provided. Investor confidence in southern Sudan is eroded as we cannot meet their foreign exchange requirements. The public is unable to send money to their families abroad for school fees or any other purpose’’, Athorbei said.

http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36100

So if you were wondering what economical warfare impact does have, well here is a full open air demonstration.
Not that people could afford school fees in the first place but the impact in mainly on external investors and GoSS capacities.
In juba, you can pay in Sudanese Pounds but everyone will take (and prefer) dollars. The rate last month was 2.6 SP for 1US$ while on Uganda boarder, it was 2.75 or 2.8 for 1US$. Convert that in millions… Let say $426 millions. In Sudan Pounds at Juba rate (which was at the same level than Khartoum, 2.6), it makes SP 1107 million. Now go and convert it on regional market at 2.75 rate, it makes $402 million. Immediate loss: $24 millions. Ok, that was for 2 month only. So lets replicate it for 1 year, it makes a $144 million loss. On a South Sudan budget of 1.3 to 1.5 billion/year… That does make a difference. And we are talking on the fact that 50% (approximately) of the oil revenues are paid in hard currency. So in fact it’s a loss of $144 million on $750 millions, nearly 20% of expected revenues.
On a Khartoum point of view, this is all benefits: GoSS is either buying fewer weapons or building less infrastructures. In the end it affects South Sudan stability anyways.

Cause don't forget, South is not secure yet:
Lakes state cattle keepers tell government to protect them or give them back their guns
http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36099

[M-A Lagrange]

First of all the ICG report on the North South border.
As usual, thrilling...
http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/region...th-border.aspx

And now the ugly trues: Bashir and Washington do cooperate, especially the CIA.
Shh, it's a secret.

Sudan’s spy agency acknowledges cooperation with CIA

The NISS and other Sudanese officials have long acknowledged relations with the CIA which started since the September 11 attacks in the United States or even before that. The former NISS chief Salah Gosh was ferried by the CIA to Washington in 2005 in a private plane for talks prompting fierce criticisms by Sudan advocacy groups.
U.S. media reports have revealed joint CIA-NISS work in the Horn of Africa and Iraq raising eyebrows even within the Islamist backed government.
In 2007 Gosh in an apparent bid to silence hard-line Islamist voices within the regime said that the cooperation with the CIA prevented a destructive backlash by the US against Sudan in the wake of the World Trade Centre attack in New York by Al-Qaeda.
The U.S. has defended its work with the NISS saying that it has not prevented it from being the most outspoken critic of human right violations in Sudan.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36165