South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

An interresting analyses of EU policy and forseen challenges:

EU policy in Sudan, 2010-2011
The European Union is closely following the evolution of the situation as the current events could lead to a resumption of the conflict between North and South, that in the past claimed two million lives and displaced four million persons in the region and abroad. Although the conflict in Darfur is still not solved, and there are other dormant conflicts in the East, Kordofan, Blue Nile, Nuba mountains and the North, resumption of the North – South conflict would have dire consequences. The instability of Sudan means instability for the region and possible fuelling of other regional conflicts, with important security and humanitarian consequences.
Currently four scenarios can be envisaged for Southern Sudan post 2011 : forced unity, forced secession, agreed unity and agreed secession. While the first two will certainly lead to the resumption of war between North and South, agreed unity may result in the implosion of the South. The scenario for agreed secession, the most likely option if the referendum is respected, has to be closely accompanied by coherent and unified approach of the international community in order to ensure a viable transition.
For the past five years, implementation of the provisions of the CPA has been delayed and within the next 12 months, Sudan’s future as a country will be decided. Before the expiry of the CPA in July 2011 and bearing in mind the high risk of the resumption of hostilities, we are faced with the following choices :
1. To seek a global solution to Sudan’s conflicts, by negotiating an additional protocol for the CPA, which would allow for the postponement of national elections by 6 months to a year. Within this time frame, a permanent cease fire would be put in place in Darfur, allowing for the inclusion of Darfur’s population in the elections. There would have to be a change in the laws to provide for free and fair elections, and allow for post 2011 referendum arrangements. This would have to be ensured by a coherent and unified international community approach (3) .
2. To address issues separately, to continue with the elections timeframe, to support the 2011 referendum and to focus on post-2011 referendum arrangements. Separately, to work on the negotiation of a Darfur ceasefire and peace agreement, and advance from there on the preparation of a conducive environment for the next elections. This implies a unified IC approach, and a “carrot-and- stick” policy for North and South to prevent the resumption of hostilities.
3. To delink the presidential elections from the CPA and from the referendum. The elections would be postponed until a conducive environment is in place – within a reasonable time frame - while support would be given to measures going in that direction, independent from the referendum. The referendum and post-referendum arrangements based on interdependence would be supported (5) , win-win strategies would be developed for collaboration between North and South, and development and governance in Southern Sudan would be supported to prevent it from being born as a failed state.
Promote a settlement on Darfur with the utmost urgency.
http://www.affaires-strategiques.inf...hp?article2963

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan opposition want elections moved to November, slams UNMIS official
A number of presidential candidates in Sudan has jointly called on the April elections to be postponed by seven months till next November and submitted a proposed formation for the National elections committee (NEC).
The Umma Party runner for president Al-Sadiq Al-Mahdi hosted a meeting at his residence in Omdurman agreed on steps that need to be taken for achieving democratic transformation and establishing an "impartial" board to monitor the work of the NEC in terms of administration and finances, creating a body consisting of presidential nominees with rotating head, rescheduling elections to resolve a number outstanding issues.
The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) representative at the summit Ibrahim Ghandour promised to convey the demands to president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir and arrange a meeting with them to discuss their requests.
Absent from the meeting were the candidates from the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) Yasir Arman, Democratic Unionist Party Hatim Al-Sir, Sudan Communist Party Mohamed Ibrahim Nugud. It was not immediately clear why they did not attend.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34416

This has been the big debate for the past weeks. But finally, NEC decided to have the election in April as planned.
During that time campaign goes as planed: free, fair and through debate:

Biemnom MP assassinated in Juba
March 14, 2010, (KHARTOUM) — Honorable Bol Deng Kot was slain by unknown uniformed men on Wednesday, March 10, resulting in condemnation by authorities and the citizenry of Biemnon county of the southern state of Unity.
Honorable Bol Deng Kot was a member of parliament in the regional legislative assembly in Juba, representing Biemnom constituency as a member of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.
Without the endorsement of the SPLM Political Bureau, he chose to stand as an independent candidate. But his popularity in the area compelled SPLM leadership to promise him a parliamentary seat from among the 40 seats allocated to SPLM after the latest negotiations with the ruling National Congress Party.

http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/...RecordId=32438

SPLM is quite tuff on independant candidates all over the place. It is clear that the transition from military to political organisation and the possibility to face electoral defeat is difficult for them.
South America has shown that former military organisations have the tendancy to loose elections. And the temptation to resolve that probem through force is high.

An interresting report from NRC
http://www.humansecuritygateway.com/...anDisaster.pdf

The border is not set and it does create problems. Last week the SPLA have announced that nomads from North did attack a SPLA out post in the border area.
(French media link below)

http://lci.tf1.fr/filnews/monde/accr...s-5770152.html

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan army accused of killing and raping civilians in C. Equatoria
March 23, 2010 (JUBA) – Southern Sudan army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has been accused of killing and raping civilians in Central Equatoria state.

Government reshuffle in Lakes brings two spy men into power
March 22, 2010 (RUMBEK) – Five new county commissioners were appointed in Lakes state by presidential decree of the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS). Two of the appointees have served in special security branches.
In the new decree No. 32/3/2010, President Salva Kiir Mayardit relieved five commissioners, two state advisors and the state finance minister. He was acting on the recommendation of the caretaker governor to relieve the officials.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34516

The same is happening in many other Sates, especially when they are deployed in rural areas to secure potential threatening ethnic groups. The same with the State representatives. The caretakers have for mandate to secure the elections.

This shows and enlight all the difficulty of “securing” elections in a country when the government is temptated to use “quiete terror” as political campaign tool.
The military coup is going on and SPLA is placing its minutemen…


On the other side…

Bashir issues expulsion warning to foreign poll observers
March 22, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — The Sudanese president Omar Hassan al-Bashir today issued a strong warning to foreign election monitors threatening to expel them if they call for delaying the polls scheduled for April.
The warning appears directed at the US based Carter Center which last week called for a slight delay in elections because of logistical and procedural issues.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34508

Franckly, a slight delay for logistic reason is reasonable but would mean no elections before 2011…

[M-A Lagrange]

From reuter

Monitoring Hitler election
Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Luis Moreno-Ocampo made the remarks during a press conference in Brussels where he met with European Union (EU) officials.
"It’s like monitoring a Hitler election.... The EU’s observers on the ground are facing "a big challenge," Moreno-Ocampo told a press conference in Brussels" Ocampo said.
The ICC indicted Bashir last year on seven counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity, but stopped short of including a charge of genocide. The United Nations says as many as 300,000 people have been killed since conflict erupted in Darfur in 2003, although Sudan rejects that figure.

Well, monitoring the SPLM is like monitoring the communist party in Staline times… Sudanese are just luky people!

From Sudan tribune:

Japan to monitor Sudan’s general election
Wednesday 24 March 2010
Tokyo is expected to send 15-20 personnel, including experts from the private sector and local embassy officials. These observers will work with those from other nations to inspect polling stations and monitor the counting of votes, reported Nikkei news service today.
Japan’s delegation is expected to remain there until mid-April, when the election results will have been announced.
The elections, to be held April 11-13, will select the president of the republic, the president of South Sudan’s semi-autonomous government, MPs to the national assembly, governors besides the members of regional assemblies.
Last October Japan granted 10 million US dollar to support the electoral process in Sudan. The electoral assistance which is the largest-scale contribution among Japan’s electoral assistances ever provided in Africa, is supplied through the UNDP.
Japan has been actively contributing to the implementation of the CPA in the areas of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR).

After China funding the election, Japan is monitoring it... A future Asian cold war in africa to come

From AFP :
At North and South border tensions are rising:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...9Ny3yzCBvfkF_w
(in French)
Misserya and SPLA are fighting each others.
Misseriya claiming for their rights to migrate with their animals from South Kordofan to Unity. And the SPLA saying they are SAF supported forces.
According to SPLA, Misserya have been attacking them with RPG.
SPLA complains that some Misseriya are traveling without children, wife and animals but only weapons and in battle dress.
Also, the UNMO are trying to find the 200 Misseriya combatants but are not capable to locate them...

All the nomads I know in the area are traveling with battle dress and AK or RPG…

And finally the other side… Of the resources cake:

Beltone to launch $1 bln Sudan agriculture fund
CAIRO – Egypt’s Beltone Private Equity and Sudan’s Kenana Sugar Company will launch a $1 billion agricultural investment fund next week, Beltone said on Tuesday.
Gulf and other Arab countries have been investing in a range of farming projects in Sudan, Africa’s biggest country by area and long viewed as having huge agricultural potential.
“We are launching the fund with the aim of deploying up to $1 billion for large-scale agricultural projects,” Osama Rashad, Beltone’s investor relations manager told Reuters, adding that the fund would be launched on Monday in Khartoum.
The vehicle will be called Mahaseel Agricultural Investment Fund.
Beltone private equity, a subsidiary of Beltone Partners, had over 2.1 billion Egyptian pounds in assets under management at the end of February 2010, mostly in real estate and retail.
Kenana produces 400,000 tonnes of sugar a year. Its biggest shareholders are the Sudanese government with 35.63 percent, the Kuwait Investment Authority with 30.5 percent and the government of Saudi Arabia with 10.92 percent, the firm’s website said.
The company’s farms span over 200,000 feddans (84,000 hectares) in Sudan.

($1=5.488 Egyptian pounds) (Writing by Shaimaa Fayed; Editing by Greg Mahlich)
http://farmlandgrab.org/11843

Who said that oil isthe most important in a region where almost everyone is facing food deficit?

[M-A Lagrange]

Washington is prepared for South Sudan secession – Gration
"Looking at the realities on the ground, it is highly likely that the south will chose independence," Gration said.
Refugees International, a US based group in a report released today urged the United Nations, non-governmental organizations and donor governments to draw up plans for possible conflict around the 2011 referendum.
Ahead of the multiparty election and the referendum of 2011, the group said the US and international community "must do everything possible to ensure that the governments in north and south Sudan reach agreement on outstanding issues before the referendum, the humanitarian community must simultaneously prepare to respond if conflict erupts around the upcoming political events".
"I don’t see that the north has to reinvade the south and start the war again," Gration said. "If we can resolve these issues, I think there is a fairly good chance that ... the south can have a civil divorce, not a civil war."
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34547

I fully agree there are very few reasons why North would reinvade South. But there are many reason for the South to invade North.
First of them is that it’s pay back time for the South. Not the best reason but a real one.
Secondly, the oil payment. With all the money North has to give back and is not willing to… I know many countries who would go to war.
Finally: finish Garang job and change the North… Utopia…

Lakes’ Agaar-Pakam and Warrap’s Luanyjang sign peace
The communities of Dinka Agaar-Pakam of Rumbek North County of Lakes State and Luanyjang of Tonj East County of Warap State have agreed to settle their differences on Tuesday at the end of a three day peace and reconciliation conference held in Wunlit payam of Tonj East County.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34541

The country is just a mosaic of peace agreements between tribes and sometimes including the government…
Preventing civil war is also one of the major concern. And what is better than a war with North to hide a internal civil war and “ethnic cleasing”?

[M-A Lagrange]

Top UN Official Stresses National Ownership of Upcoming Elections

"Elections need to take place according to timelines subscribed by the CPA [Comprehensive Peace Agreement], and they have to be conducted in a conducive atmosphere to ensure a free and fair process," said Haile Menkerios today in Khartoum, in his first press conference since becoming the Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) and head of UNMIS.
"The CPA, however, is an agreement by the two Parties. And should the two Parties decide whether to have the elections on time or should they want to postpone them for a time, it is up to them," the Special Representative added.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201003290002.html

I believe it's a new approach for ownership: this belongs to me so I have the right to not do it. With election and democratization it's kind of funny/fuzzy.
I own elections so I have the right to not have it... But I stay a legitimete populace representative government.

Personnally, I love it!
And now, ladies and gentlemen, welcome the democraticly non elected dictators! Super cool!

Just for fun, here is the link for the Amnesty international sudan election observers briefing:
http://www.amnesty.org/fr/library/in...54/009/2010/en

[M-A Lagrange]

Yassir Arman quits Sudan presidential poll

A leading contender for president of Sudan has withdrawn his candidacy, casting more doubt over the country’s first fully-contested poll since 1986.
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) said Yassir Arman would not stand against President Omar al-Bashir.
The SPLM – former rebels from the south – blamed the continuing conflict in the Darfur region and “electoral irregularities” for his withdrawal.

http://www.africa-times-news.com/201...idential-poll/

Some even speak of a secret agreement:

Sudan opposition stunned by Arman’s withdrawal amid talk of secret NCP-SPLM deal
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34607

SPLM can say what ever they want, this was proposed to them longtime ago by Bashir.
There is nothing secret neither: NCP did not propose candidates for the Souh sudan presidentitial post neither for the States Governors.

Bashir and Kiir shared the cake and f### ##u the people, the West and your stupid elections...
Welcome in the new democratic Sudan!

Sometimes we should be a little harder with the people we help for decades!