South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[Stan]

onto my keyboard and monitor

"With the financial support, provided by the donors, the NEC can affirm its ability to organize free, fair and credible elections", he added.

Have any of these so-called donors ever seen a free and fair election in Africa

I did get kick out of the Carter Center's "However" regarding their campaign contributions

Unfortunately, 13 of Sudan's 25 states fell short of the NEC's registration targets, including all three states in the Darfur region.

So, exactly how many people really did register ?

[M-A Lagrange]

Stan,

I will try to respond to your question on registration.
In South, things went not that bad. The main problem is not really registration but rather the figures they will present.
First of all, there has been an over estimation of South Sudan population by SPLA during CPA talks. Census and reality have shown that only around 4 million people are actually present in South Sudan. Then only half of them are in age to vote…
Basically IDPs in Darfur used their last weapon to resist against the UN circus and elections: they boycotted registration.
In South, as in the state where I am, I would simply say that even dead and babies will vote.
Figures are anyway all fake from the very first day.
- SPLA over estimated its population so they could threat Khartoum.
- Khartoum is running an anti election campaign as they may loose presidential election if they go for transparency and fair elections.

Few months ago, a report called tickle the boxes went out to explain why all parts will cheat. And, at that time, my comment was: only Khartoum needs to tickle the box; in South, military will probably just make a coup if not elected.

For more details on elections (what a joke) please, have a look at:
Imagine the elections from NDI:
http://www.ndi.org/node/15795

Oxford analytica
http://www.oxan.com/countries.aspx?country=Sudan

And Carter centre…
http://cartercenter.org/news/pr/sudan-081909.html
But I must say that I am not very much impressed by them.

[Stan]

MA, Thanks for the links (especially another Carter Link !).

I wasn't trying to be sarcastic

I once visited Juba from Zaire, but then the governing authority were mostly military. So I find it hard to believe that something democratic will come from these "free and fair" elections in GoSS.

I noticed there is also a reserved election position for a female candidate. I can't imagine what that will do in Khartoum

Do the locals still refer to Khartoum as Qadaffi’s egg ?

Regards, Stan

[M-A Lagrange]

What I see for the moment is SPLA soldiers visiting villages and saying: tell what you need and the UN will give it to you.

There is no such thing as free and fair election in GoSS. They all are former or members of the SPLA with stupid ranks. I did not even new that South Sudan could host so many divisions brigader general and major general and...

But, yes, you just got it. GoSS is not a government of South Sudan people, it's a club for SPLA high ranked generals.
The idea that an army is serving a government is just not crossing their mind.

There is something to be written on Central Africa: the tomb of Nation Building...

[M-A Lagrange]

Elections:

On December 22, NCP put a claim for fraud on elections registration.

In South Sudan, more than 5 million individuals have been registered while only around 4 million were expected according to census. It is nearly 131% of the potential electors that have been registered in South Sudan.
As I was mentioning in a previous post, the main question here id not who is cheating, it is the completely fake figures that have been used by all sides.
In which country around this world, with a real democracy, 100% of electors are registered? In South Sudan, that is not a problem, it is even the norm.
What I found amazing is that Carter Center and other watchers are not even reacting when South is doing such things.

Referendum:
2011 referendum is the core object of the for the moment legal battle.
On December 23, NCP introduced a new amendment to referendum bill.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33553
Sudan’s parliament endorses referendum bill, SPLM protests amendments
December 22, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — Leaders from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) along with other South Sudan political parties walked out of the National Assembly in protest of a new amendment introduced to South Sudan referendum bill.

But on 23, NCP redrew its amendment:
Sudan’s ruling NCP sends referendum bill back to parliament for reconsideration
December 23, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) today made a highly unexpected move and agreed to demands by the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) on removing the amendments made to the controversial South Sudan referendum bill adopted by the National Assembly this week.
“We [SPLM & NCP] agreed on the fact that the law on the referendum will be resubmitted to parliament on Monday to be adopted with the article that had been removed,” the SPLM Vice president Riek Machar said.
A political observer in Khartoum Sudan Tribune that the “extraordinary” change of heart by the NCP” is driven by the fear that the SPLM would join opposition ranks in an alliance against the ruling party.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33567

Anyways, this is not to please US:

Washington accuses Sudan’s NCP of reneging on CPA accord

December 24, 2009 (WASHINGTON) – The United States is “deeply concerned” about modifications made to the South Sudan referendum bill ahead of its passage Tuesday in the national assembly and accused the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of breaching the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33569

What has to be understood is that CPA aim is not peace for the big people of this world… It is a tool to open Sudan regime to democracy. I do agree with the objective. But counting on South Sudan leaders and especially SPLM to be a democratic rone actor in Sudan… Well, you better look at it twice.
I know the other and especially Northern opposition parties are “bad people” (they are basically Islamic radical based parties) but taking SPLM for something more than SPLA…
Let’s have a look at the 2010 elections first and see what comes out, how SPLA, which should be the army of a country and not an armed group or political militia, will act and react to all the power changes.
From ground, it is far from being done peacefully yet.

And yet the funny look like news:

In Juba police commissioner has ordered all shisha/water pipes material to be destroyed as he said: shisha tobacco is like heroin.
I love when anti arab campaigns are run at such an intellectual level. Especially when it comes from guys who are managing semi alcoholic addict troops…

[M-A Lagrange]

It’s a shame but it’s like this.

Depending on the sources, Salva Kiir is either concern that Sudan may go at war again, either encouraging his people to be “prepared”.
http://www.lefigaro.fr/international...la-guerre-.php

For APLM/SPLA, not being at war is highly dangerous. As they are just not good into governing a country they do not care of (at least the people), they need to regain legitimacy.
As the elections are basically a fake exercise to make sure that SPLA is legally in power, SPLM has to administrate the country. Unfortunately, we are far from Nairobi and the cozy houses they use to live in for decades. So a good war with North would be the best solution for them to go back to Nairobi in all legitimacy.

Just to confort this feeling, ICG released an exellent report on Jongley ethnic fightings.
(Some comments from Sudan Tribune, please visit ICG web page for full report)

The think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) in a new report examines conflict in Jonglei state of Southern Sudan. The report asserts that "inter-tribal fighting, while not a new phenomenon, has taken on a new and dangerously politicised character."
Titled Jonglei’s Tribal Conflicts: Countering Insecurity in South Sudan, the paper presents research on three main conflict cycles in the state: Lou Nuer against Dinka, Lou Nuer against Murle, and Lou Nuer against Jikany Nuer. The report implies that political competition at state, regional and national levels may be exacerbating tribal conflict.
"Politics and the personalities driving them in Jonglei may be linked to broader jockeying ahead of both elections and the referendum," asserts the ICG paper. "Some see the contentious debates over state leadership as an attempt to undermine Governor Manyang and alter the ethnic balance of power. Objections were also raised over his appointment of five state ministers, reportedly because they were ‘secondclass SPLM’ and supporters of Vice President Riek Machar. This hints at broader competition for paramount leadership of the Nuer, an unofficial position held by Machar, the highest ranking Nuer in the GoSS."

Here, we are far from the ethnic clash between pastoralist and displaced people. The political nature of South Sudan internal conflicts is fully taken in account.
Yes, war between former SPLA and SAF supporters is still going on. As in so many other countries (like Rwanda, DRC…) poorly educated people living from a harsh peace of land are abused and their natural feeling of attachment for their land (their resources, economical and social) is used for complex political battles between elites.



As CPA comes to its end, UN Secretary General took radical decisions:
Georg Charpentier from Findland has been nominated Deputy Special Representative, Resident Coordinator and Humanitarian Coordinator.
While General Jasbir Lidder from India has been nominated as Deputy Special Representative.

Good bye the nice guys doing nothing to not unpleased Khartoum. Welcome the European heavy Weight…
Guess who is funding the elections?

The road to Sudan, United or divided, as a Peaceful Nation is long…

[M-A Lagrange]

It looks like a joke but it isn’t. China just granted 3 millions for Sudan elections.

China grants three million USD for Sudan’s election

The announcement was made today by the Deputy Chairman of the National Commission for the Elections ((NCE), Mr. Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, who received in his office the Chinese ambassador to Sudan Mr. Li Chengwen.
Following the Chengwen reiterated China’s support for the electoral process in Sudan and expressed the hope that the election will lead to the democratic transformation, in order to achieves stability and development. He also praised the developing relationship between China and Sudan in all fields

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33611
Apparently the US push on China, in Africa, to become more and more a “normal” donor and power in Africa had some results.
Also, most of China investments in Oil are in North Sudan… So United Sudan does looks like something they may be interested in.

After some difficulties, the referendum bill has been approved:

Sudan referendum bill finally sees the light

Sudan official news agency (SUNA) said that the national assembly adopted articles 27 and 67 dealing with voter registration centres and the criteria by which a Southerners in the North.
Under the law, south Sudanese living outside the south and born before January 1, 1956, the date of Sudan’s independence, must vote in the south.
But south Sudanese living outside the south and born after January 1, 1956 would be able to vote in their place of residence, whether in the north or abroad.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33630

I’ll try to come with a copy of the bill. But the issue is still not clear and closed. Who are the South Sudanese livings in North? How many are they? What liberty do they have to actually go to South to vote?
Referendum battle is not ended yet.
But first things first: Presidential and general elections. On January 10th, the candidates should be announced. This candidate nomination will probably tell us long on the direction South Sudan will take. Will we witness only former military from SPLA (most probable scenario) or will we see the up rising of a real civilian political class?