South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[davidbfpo]

Moderators Note

In response to MA's critique that some disturbance in this thread by a series of posts speculating on the role of the external, or great powers in Africa, in places like Zimbabwe and what exactly will China do? I have created a new thread for the discussion and moved some of the posts to here and please discuss the issues there, not in this Sudanese thread.

The new thread is 'The role of non-African powers in Africa: a discussion':http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/...ad.php?t=10188

[M-A Lagrange]

Some reactions from various countries in the world.
And sorry, still nothing from China. But does China reaction on democratic opening really count? Let say yes but not that much in fact as they just target natural resources and will support any kind of regime which is commercially favorable to them, democratic or not.

African and Arabs organisations praise the conduct of Sudanese elections

"We cannot say that the Sudanese elections have met international standards, but that does not reduce what has happened, which is an important transition," said Salah Halima the head of AL mission in Khartoum today.
"What happened in Sudan was a historical event and a great achievement for Sudanese people," said Kunle Adeyemi, who is spokesperson of the AU observer mission in Sudan chaired by John Kufuor the former President of Ghana. "Looking into the fact this is a country that had not had a multi-party election for almost a generation... to say they are free and fair, to the best of our knowledge we have no reason to think the contrary," he added.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34808

Russia says Sudan elections fair by ’African standards’
The elections that were concluded in Sudan last week should be judged by African standards and not European ones, a senior Russian official said.
"In particular, voting papers were delivered late to polling stations. And polling stations themselves did not open on time. The names of some candidates on the lists were distorted or had the wrong symbols," Margelov told Interfax news agency.
"This country is just emerging from a state of war. Moreover, it seems European experts shouldn’t be applying their observations to the whole country - there is information that for security reasons they did not go to Darfur," he added.
Margelov also said that the opinion of the EU’s observers to the effect that the elections "did not meet the key requirements of the electoral process" were too categorical.
Margelov said the elections in Sudan should be judged by African and not European standards.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34819

South Africa criticizes Sudan’s rush to elections at an "inopportune" time

"It is a great concern. Sudan shares borders with 10 other African states, therefore... if it implodes... it destabilizes many other African countries. So it is in our interests to contribute towards peace and stability in Sudan" Motlanthe said.
"A number of... parties pulled out of the election. That in itself already creates circumstances for the election outcomes not to be accepted by all because they have these concerns about aspects of the preparations. The conditions are not ideal," he said. "These elections could not have happened at a more inopportune time."
"One would have asked for more time for the peace process to take root, as well as the outstanding question relating to the comprehensive peace agreement with the South to be addressed. Then the country as a whole could have gone to a better election," he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34807

US says Sudan elections ’not fair and free’, shifts focus to 2011 referendum
"This was not a free and fair election," said State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley. "It did not, broadly speaking, meet international standards."
"That said, I think we recognize that the election is a very important step" toward carrying out a 2005 peace deal that gave the south autonomy, a share of oil revenues and a route to independence via referendum by January 2011, he told reporters.
Crowley said many of those elected in the Sudanese poll, however flawed it may have been, would play important roles in whether "we have a credible referenda process that, quite honestly, is likely to yield the emergence of a new country."

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34817


It is interresting to see our Russian friend complying with AU and Arab Union statement. Particion of Sudan is also for them an opportunity to retake ground in Africa and counter China in what used to be their play yard... Especially the "Arab" Africa.
It is interresting to see how Sudan destiny is becoming another Berlin conference of 21 century.


To please our ecowarriors friends and to look a little more on the non oil issues, as it was done before, I would like to have a look at water.
I did previously flag the issue of agriculture and will of Arab countries to turn North Sudan in a gigantic wheat plant country. This can only be done with water. And negociations around water are not that easy with non "arab" African countries of the Nil sub region.

Egypt and Sudan approach Nile basin countries on need for cooperation
Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and his Sudanese counterpart, Omar al-Bashir have sent messages to their counterparts in the Nile Basin countries to invite them to set up a commission for the development of relations between them and financing of joint projects, Egyptian media said here Thursday.

http://www.apanews.net/public/spip.php?article122374

That was on 16/04

Well, since the results of the negociations were not that good in fact.
Egypt, refering to the 1929 water sharing treaty signed with UK, claim to own Nil water. A 1959 treaty allows to Egypt nearly 87% of the nile water.
Egypt minister of Water even leveled the issue of Nil negociation to national security.
(sorry, the link is in French, I could not find one in English but it does exist, I think on Al Jazeera.)
http://www.leblogfinance.com/2010/04...nationale.html

Eco wars, as ecologicaly (ecology as politic agenda) protracted, may be the new African issue in the coming years. As I was describing in previous post, Sudan secession is not only a oil/ethnical question. It is also a regional ecological resources management question.
This aspect of the crises (in Sudan) is fairly new (please, no climat refugees comment. For those who may see something in this, please go back to your history books and you'll discover that Darfur issue is more than 20 years old.). Or at least not taken in account in the CPA and the signatories parties. But the world food crises passed by and Countries as Uganda or Kenya do neet to secure food production areas such as South Sudan green belt.
So do Egypt and the Arab countries from Arab peninsula.
Sudan secession is no more just a story of oil and religious rights...

[Jedburgh]

CIGI, 20 Apr 10: Security Sector Reform Monitor: Southern Sudan

This edition of the Security Sector Reform Monitor: Southern Sudan will explore disarmament and security issues in Southern Sudan with an emphasis on the community level, examining how internal and external dynamics contribute to human insecurity. Civilian disarmament is an intractable problem that was not addressed explicitly in the CPA. The problems posed by small arms in Southern Sudan are enormous and current measures to contain their impact are inadequate and, in fact, undermine the credibility of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS).

[JMA]

A quote: "The elections that were concluded in Sudan last week should be judged by African standards and not European ones, a senior Russian official said."...

That statement would be considered outrageously racist where I come from. Yet the Russians think they can get away with it?

[M-A Lagrange]

JMA,

I fully agree on the fact that it is racist. I am also ashamed that such statements are cautioned by African countries. The will to be seen different is a good reason to lower the standards. And this is one of the many problems in stabilization.
As long as standards will be seen as a foreign thing and process will be done to comply with foreigners view/interrest/funding opportunities, this cannot work. The ownership of a stabilization process starts will the recognition of egal needs/rights for any African populations (or any non "western like" culture).

In that sense the Sudan elections are interresting. Both North or South have agreed to have low standards. But they also agreed on the same level of low standards. And the worst, in Russia position, is that most of African countries will find this statement relevant and clever because it goes with their will to portrait them selves as different.
This is probably the main issue here: ownership of a non natural process at its highest level. How build ownership of a process which is seen as an artificial tool and obstacle to reach war end (secession in the case of South Sudan).

[M-A Lagrange]

If, as likely, South Sudan decides to secede from the North at its January 2011 self-determination referendum, it will need support from Sudan’s neighbours to ensure the decision is respected and new conflict is prevented.

http://www.presseafricaine.info/ext/...isisgroup.org/

The ICG on last elections: A MUST READ!!!!

[M-A Lagrange]

A lot of events happened in a short time (1 month more or less). I was taking some rest from Sudan but followed this closely and waited it to mature to really try to put some comments on the situation.

First of all the situation in North Sudan: Bashir is building up the results of the election and his preparatory work for post referendum war in 2011.

Sudanese security arrests opposition Hassan Turabi
May 15, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – Sudanese security service arrested Saturday the leader of the opposition Popular Congress Party (PCP) Hassan Al-Turabi.
"At around midnight (2100 GMT), a group of security officers arriving in three cars, came and took Hassan al-Turabi from his home," his secretary Awad Babakir told AFP.
His family said ignoring the cause of the arrest but his son Sidiq sait it might be related to an interview with a Sudanese daily newspaper where he accused the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of rigging the elections.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35091

Sudanese army captures Jebel Moon kills over hundred JEM rebels
May 15, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — Sudanese army has killed over one hundred insurgents and captured a key rebel stronghold area in West Darfur in less than two weeks after the suspension of peace talks by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), the army spokesperson said.
"We liberated Jebel Moon from the Justice and Equality Movement, killed 108 rebels and captured 61 alive," said Alsoarmi Khaled, the spokesperson of the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).
He also said they seized a number of trucks, vehicles and heavy weapons, adding that SAF troops will hunt down remnant rebels who are pulling out of Jebel Moon area.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35086

Secondly, the unsolved problem of Nile water. As Egypt and Sudan, for obvious food security reasons but also to allow Arab Union States to turn this part of the world in their wheat plant, refused any discussions on Nile water, some other stake holders took the initiative to revise the Nile water partition without them:

Some Nile Basin States Sign Deal, Egypt Objects
Four east African countries signed a new deal creating a permanent commission to manage the River Nile's waters on Friday, putting them on a collision course with Egypt and Sudan.

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...2/Default.aspx

And finally the full messy post election situation of Jongley and Gen Athor refusal to respect population decision.

Renegade general warns civilians to evacuate Bor town before attackSunday 16 May 2010 Send
May 15, 2010 (JUBA) – The renegade general, George Athor Deng, has warned civilians living in Bor town to leave the town before he attacks it in the next few days.
Athor issued the warning through another interview he conducted with the Nairobi-based Sudan Radio Service (SRS). “I believe that within days, my attack will be against Bor town because I have learned that Salva is somebody who only likes fighting and he doesn’t want to talk. So it is for him to listen to what we are saying, I am organizing my forces for Bor town,” he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35092

And a letter addressed to Gen Athor and president Kiir from Calgari:
To Gen Athor:

We would also like to urge Gen. George Athor very strongly not to repeat what had happened two weeks ago. We all knew that you were one of the military influential figures of the SPLA/M during the liberation struggle, more committed and loyal to SPLA/M system, but now we wanted you not to obliterate your wonderful legacy by killing your own citizens and fellow Comrades whom you had previously sacrificed your life to rescue them from Arab domination. They offered their precious live voluntarily during the movement for the name of our mother land, human rights and freedom to all marginalized people of Sudan.

To president Kiir:

We really appeal to GoSS and SPLM leadership to forgive General Deng since continuation of this conflict will claim more lives of our civilians and soldiers while we all want them to enjoy peace dividend. Your Excellency, we the Southern Sudanese citizens in Calgary are kindly requesting the government of southern Sudan, under your leadership to exhaust all necessary mechanisms with consideration of the following resolutions:

First and foremost, prolonging this internal conflict, would caused insecurity and instability which will hinder the preparation of the imminent referendum in 2011 whereby people of South Sudan would determine their future either to retain unity of Sudan or opt for South Sudan separate government as one of the cornerstones of liberation struggle.

Secondly, turning guns against citizens is completely irrelevant because we will lose innocent lives of our people at this juncture and it will undermine ultimate roles of the SPLA army while their main function is to defend South Sudan and to maintain the CPA.

Thirdly, our partner is very seriously advocating false allegation to international community that we people of south Sudan are incapable of running our own affairs and warns the international community to refrain from supporting secession of South Sudan. We the SPLM Calgary and other Sudanese elders want the SPLM leadership and the government of southern Sudan to prove them wrong this time and alert the people in the world that we the Southerners are more than capable of governing ourselves by maintaining lasting peace in South Sudan.

http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...0/Default.aspx

And some details on what is going on in Jongley view through disarment angle:
Jonglei 2010: Another round of disarmament
http://www.gurtong.net/ECM/Editorial...8/Default.aspx

What is sad in the Jongley story is that general Athor has won the elections in only 1 couny on 11. It gives you an idea of his support.
But unlike SPLA says, some say he may have up to a thousand soldiers with him. (I know the figures battle… anyways, he probably has more than 100 and pretty much less than a 1000).

What is interresting in this story, is that Athor was proposed position in Juba, in the new government and he refused. The assumption that peace has a price (so precious to UK) here is proven to be fault again. War has a price which is even more attractive than any one put on peace.
Why? Simply because war opens more opportunities than peace to a larger number. Now the main question is who benefits from the crime?
GoSS? Certainly not.
Khartoum? Most probably but it is not that obvious. My point here is: Khartoum is actually bringing on his knees JEM in Dafur and will be soon free to prepare war with South (if this happens after 2011 referendum). Gen Athor ran elections as an independent. He basically lost all his supports inside SPLM. He was more or less proposed to reintegrate SPLM through a position in the government and refused.

This could be a manoeuvre to destabilise GoSS but internal affairs inside SPLM could be the problem. And let us not forget the complex problem of Nile water. A strong south Sudan is a problem for Egypt and North Sudan on that matter but also it is an issue for the other stake holders of that negotiation. Nice guys as Uganda president are involved in this. It would not be the first time hat he plays against South Sudan.
Too many have motives to destabilise South to look only to North.

[M-A Lagrange]

Kiir casts doubts on negotiations with renegade general
May 16, 2010 (JUBA) – Salva Kiir Mayardit, South Sudan President-elect, has casted doubt on GOSS willingness to negotiate with George Athor Deng, the defeated Jonglei State gubernatorial candidate in April elections.
Many voices in southern Sudan called on the regional government to seek peaceful means to end the rebellion of General Athor in order to preserve peace and security in the semi-autonomous region which will hold a referendum on self determination next January.
The UN Mission in Sudan proposed to broker a negotiated settlement to the conflict. Athor welcomed the move but Southern Sudan government pledged to make further consultations and review the situation before to give its final decision to the UN body.
During the May 16th celebration here in Juba, Salva Kiir vowed that civilians’ safety and transformation of SPLA are the SPLM focus in the next term office besides ensuring successful conduct of January referendum.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35103

South Sudan ruling party accuses NCP of backing Athor uprising At a media briefing held at the party’s Southern Sector Secretariat on Saturday, Mr. Amum said his party had secured credible information that the National Congress Party (NCP) was fully backing Gen. Athor and forces loyal to him.
Asked to substantiate further on the NCP’s alleged involvement, the SPLM Secretary General said the party’s [SPLM] intelligence report strongly link the renegade General’s rebellion to the Khartoum regime’s continuous trends of providing logistical and financial support to “enemies” of Southern Sudan.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35098

As far as I know, negociations were rejected by Salva Kiir and SPLA troops are surounding the 500 to 800 troops of Gen Athor.
This situation questions the doctrine of negociation with peace spoilers in stabilisation. Is it always worse to negociate with peace spoilers? Sometimes the answer is no, unfortunatelly.
Somehow, negociating with a general who clearly lost election would undermine GoSS legitimacy and democratic process initiated in South Sudan. Not that I am in favor of use of force to settle any problems similar to this one but...
But when the democratic defeat is clear, then negociations has to be very limited. Buying peace spoilers would work if they have some popular back up as you would fuel insurgency. But when the guys have no popular support why should democraties negociate?
Democratic process are inclusive but in order to build strong democracy, it should be also archknowledge that they do have the right to impose people decisions to those who reject people choice by using force.

Concerning the NCP links... I am doubtful by I am very much not well placed to judge as I miss too many info.