MA
as a longterm Sudan watcher, I would say the short answer is No, we cannot as long as we persist in supporting the illusion of a single Sudan.
Tom
MA
as a longterm Sudan watcher, I would say the short answer is No, we cannot as long as we persist in supporting the illusion of a single Sudan.
Tom
Well, the question of an active participation of the UN in security, even for stabilisation, is a pure theoretical one. The South Sudan mission is under chapter 6, with the possibility if there is huge deterrence of the situation to use chap 7 privileges.
But the SRSG reaffirmed that up to now and for the future, UNMIS would implement a full chap 6. In clear a wait and see UN mission. The other problem is manpower. No one is really ready to provide more troops for SS.
Also, if things go bad, UN will redraw. And that is what the oldschool UN South Sudan wants: to go back to Naerobi and its confort (we are far from people centric concerns). Basically if violence errupt, UN loose their mandate...
So UN tried to push, and is still trying, SPLA to intervene into cattle wars. But as said previously, there are numerous question marks on the role of SPLA into starting the clashes. For me, it looks like calling the incendiary guy to play fireman.
On the other side, GoSS is trying hard (they say) to show they do have control. But… If they are not as bad as FARDC, they not too far from them in terms of discipline. Sometime, I even wonder what they have in mind. They contracted Kenyan army to train them. I have pretty low knowledge of Kenyans army records, but still, SAF in Khartoum must be laughing.
From Sudan tribune Who and what is militia in South Sudan?
In Warrap state, according the media reports, heavy artilleries were used in fighting involving two Dinka clans. In Lakes state Agar-Dinka had recently attacked the SPLA convoy destroying a number of their vehicles using Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPGs). In Juba’s weapons search it is reported that even anti-air craft weapons plus RPGs, PKMs, etc., were found in the hands of civilians. So if the Lou-Nuer attackers used such type of weapons it should not be something new to any body.
also, I was talking with people from Human Rights about LRA. They asked me my solution. I answered: hunt them, kill them and when you catch one alive put him in jail.
their solution has been: let's go for reintegration...
Why can't we call a dog a dog? A civil war a civil war and not development with pre-election difficulties or war criminals just misleaded youth?
Last edited by Tom Odom; 10-07-2009 at 09:17 AM. Reason: fixed links
Sudan denies recruiting former US officials as lobbyists
First announce with big highlights, North Sudan is denying now recruiting US officials as lobbyists. Well, once thing is sure, they need some in DC to be on their side.
Kiir accuses Sudan’s ruling NCP of arming Southern militias
On the other side, What ever President Kiir may say, the last reports from Small Arms Survey are pointing out the leakage of weapons and ammunition from SPLA Stock piles. When you want your dog dead: accuse him of rage…
Bentiu clashes purely SPLA affair: official spokesmanAnd just to confirm that they are really far from capable, SPLA started to fight each others, turning a so called army of clowns, into a gang of militia.
But we are going for elections, free and fair…
Last edited by Tom Odom; 10-07-2009 at 09:23 AM. Reason: Fixed links
Sudan War---5 Decades and Going Strong
And in the category of unending conflict
Good article and here is the money line:Africa’s Last, Next War
Darfur isn't the worst crisis in Africa. In fact, it's not even the worst crisis in Sudan.
Arab horsemen toting Kalashnikovs provided by the Sudanese government thunder into a town. Women are raped in their huts. Men are gunned down as they flee for the bush, and children are packed off on the back of the raiders' horses while stolen cattle are herded away to be sold.
It's a scene that's become all too familiar for those who've followed the crisis in the western Sudanese region of Darfur over the past five years. But this isn't Darfur circa 2005. It's any one of hundreds of villages in southern Sudan in the 1980s. Or 1992, or 1997, or 2003, and quite possibly 2010.
Before there were Save Darfur panties or George Clooney-led Darfur peace missions, Sudan was engulfed in a much longer and more destructive civil war between Khartoum's Islamist government and the country's animist and Christian south. The most recent phase of that war, from 1983 until 2005, killed an estimated 2 million civilians—more than six times the number thought to have been killed in Darfur over the past six years. Now, as U.S. attention wanders, it's coming back, and it will be worse than ever.
But that argument assumes Sudan, as currently conceived, is a functioning state—which it isn't. Counting the two failed pacts signed with Darfur's Sudan Liberation Army and eastern Sudanese rebels in 2006, "the whole country has ceased to exist and become a collection of peace agreements," says Medhane Tadesse, an East Africa analyst for the Ethiopia-based Center for Policy Research and Dialogue. "And [Khartoum] knows these peace agreements won't be implemented.
What I love with South Sudan is that they fear nothing even being ridiculous. Now they remind USA that they have laws to pass for them to have their independency…
Is not a failed state we are building it is a silly joke.
SPLM diplomacy stresses importance of referendum law
Saturday 10 October 2009 04:30.
October 9, 2009 (WASHINGTON) – With the Comprehensive Peace Agreement set to expire in January 2011, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement is trying to stress to the international community the importance of the terms of the proposed referendum law, which would govern the vote on popular determination in 2011.
When the CPA expires, the oil-sharing provisions will be terminated. Part of planning for the post-referendum period involves not only how to conduct the vote for separation, but how to run the oil economy after the outcome of the vote.
An official delegation was sent last week by the President of South Sudan, first to attend the UN General Assembly Meeting. The delegation was led by GOSS Minister of Cabinet Affairs, H. E. Dr. Luka Tombekana Monoja and the GOSS Minister of Regional Cooperation, H. E. Gen. Oyai Deng Ajak.
Last edited by Tom Odom; 10-10-2009 at 10:00 AM.
Sudan’s SPLM gives ultimatum to NCP over law package
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article32766
After reminding international community, they blame Khartoum. We are on the road to peace…Sudan ex-Southern rebel group today issued an ultimatum to its partner in the Government of National Unity (GoNU) saying the dominant National Congress Party (NCP) has week to agree on a number of draft laws.
The laws include referendum and national security laws hotly debated with the NCP for most of this year.
The SPLM submitted a memorandum to the parliament speaker saying that these laws need to be tabled within a week or else they will boycott the national assembly.
“We are going to boycott the whole parliamentary session if they do not respond positively,” Yasir Arman, head of the SPLM’s northern sector was quoted by Reuters.
“There is an absence of political will from the National Congress” he said.
The SPLM stressed that this is the last session of the parliament before the April 2010 elections and thus these laws need to be passed as soon as possible.
For sure!
And I forgot the most hilarious :Salva Kiir death rumour spead by... Whe don not know yet.
This joke gonna turn to disaster as sure it is a joke.
May be it is time to have a closer look at what is going on in South Sudan.
Or in 6 month, I believe the same old folks will meet in Juba to patch the disaster.
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