South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan army accused of killing and raping civilians in C. Equatoria
March 23, 2010 (JUBA) – Southern Sudan army, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) has been accused of killing and raping civilians in Central Equatoria state.

Government reshuffle in Lakes brings two spy men into power
March 22, 2010 (RUMBEK) – Five new county commissioners were appointed in Lakes state by presidential decree of the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS). Two of the appointees have served in special security branches.
In the new decree No. 32/3/2010, President Salva Kiir Mayardit relieved five commissioners, two state advisors and the state finance minister. He was acting on the recommendation of the caretaker governor to relieve the officials.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34516

The same is happening in many other Sates, especially when they are deployed in rural areas to secure potential threatening ethnic groups. The same with the State representatives. The caretakers have for mandate to secure the elections.

This shows and enlight all the difficulty of “securing” elections in a country when the government is temptated to use “quiete terror” as political campaign tool.
The military coup is going on and SPLA is placing its minutemen…


On the other side…

Bashir issues expulsion warning to foreign poll observers
March 22, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — The Sudanese president Omar Hassan al-Bashir today issued a strong warning to foreign election monitors threatening to expel them if they call for delaying the polls scheduled for April.
The warning appears directed at the US based Carter Center which last week called for a slight delay in elections because of logistical and procedural issues.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34508

Franckly, a slight delay for logistic reason is reasonable but would mean no elections before 2011…

[M-A Lagrange]

From reuter

Monitoring Hitler election
Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) Luis Moreno-Ocampo made the remarks during a press conference in Brussels where he met with European Union (EU) officials.
"It’s like monitoring a Hitler election.... The EU’s observers on the ground are facing "a big challenge," Moreno-Ocampo told a press conference in Brussels" Ocampo said.
The ICC indicted Bashir last year on seven counts of war crimes and crimes against humanity, but stopped short of including a charge of genocide. The United Nations says as many as 300,000 people have been killed since conflict erupted in Darfur in 2003, although Sudan rejects that figure.

Well, monitoring the SPLM is like monitoring the communist party in Staline times… Sudanese are just luky people!

From Sudan tribune:

Japan to monitor Sudan’s general election
Wednesday 24 March 2010
Tokyo is expected to send 15-20 personnel, including experts from the private sector and local embassy officials. These observers will work with those from other nations to inspect polling stations and monitor the counting of votes, reported Nikkei news service today.
Japan’s delegation is expected to remain there until mid-April, when the election results will have been announced.
The elections, to be held April 11-13, will select the president of the republic, the president of South Sudan’s semi-autonomous government, MPs to the national assembly, governors besides the members of regional assemblies.
Last October Japan granted 10 million US dollar to support the electoral process in Sudan. The electoral assistance which is the largest-scale contribution among Japan’s electoral assistances ever provided in Africa, is supplied through the UNDP.
Japan has been actively contributing to the implementation of the CPA in the areas of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR).

After China funding the election, Japan is monitoring it... A future Asian cold war in africa to come

From AFP :
At North and South border tensions are rising:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...9Ny3yzCBvfkF_w
(in French)
Misserya and SPLA are fighting each others.
Misseriya claiming for their rights to migrate with their animals from South Kordofan to Unity. And the SPLA saying they are SAF supported forces.
According to SPLA, Misserya have been attacking them with RPG.
SPLA complains that some Misseriya are traveling without children, wife and animals but only weapons and in battle dress.
Also, the UNMO are trying to find the 200 Misseriya combatants but are not capable to locate them...

All the nomads I know in the area are traveling with battle dress and AK or RPG…

And finally the other side… Of the resources cake:

Beltone to launch $1 bln Sudan agriculture fund
CAIRO – Egypt’s Beltone Private Equity and Sudan’s Kenana Sugar Company will launch a $1 billion agricultural investment fund next week, Beltone said on Tuesday.
Gulf and other Arab countries have been investing in a range of farming projects in Sudan, Africa’s biggest country by area and long viewed as having huge agricultural potential.
“We are launching the fund with the aim of deploying up to $1 billion for large-scale agricultural projects,” Osama Rashad, Beltone’s investor relations manager told Reuters, adding that the fund would be launched on Monday in Khartoum.
The vehicle will be called Mahaseel Agricultural Investment Fund.
Beltone private equity, a subsidiary of Beltone Partners, had over 2.1 billion Egyptian pounds in assets under management at the end of February 2010, mostly in real estate and retail.
Kenana produces 400,000 tonnes of sugar a year. Its biggest shareholders are the Sudanese government with 35.63 percent, the Kuwait Investment Authority with 30.5 percent and the government of Saudi Arabia with 10.92 percent, the firm’s website said.
The company’s farms span over 200,000 feddans (84,000 hectares) in Sudan.

($1=5.488 Egyptian pounds) (Writing by Shaimaa Fayed; Editing by Greg Mahlich)
http://farmlandgrab.org/11843

Who said that oil isthe most important in a region where almost everyone is facing food deficit?

[M-A Lagrange]

Washington is prepared for South Sudan secession – Gration
"Looking at the realities on the ground, it is highly likely that the south will chose independence," Gration said.
Refugees International, a US based group in a report released today urged the United Nations, non-governmental organizations and donor governments to draw up plans for possible conflict around the 2011 referendum.
Ahead of the multiparty election and the referendum of 2011, the group said the US and international community "must do everything possible to ensure that the governments in north and south Sudan reach agreement on outstanding issues before the referendum, the humanitarian community must simultaneously prepare to respond if conflict erupts around the upcoming political events".
"I don’t see that the north has to reinvade the south and start the war again," Gration said. "If we can resolve these issues, I think there is a fairly good chance that ... the south can have a civil divorce, not a civil war."
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34547

I fully agree there are very few reasons why North would reinvade South. But there are many reason for the South to invade North.
First of them is that it’s pay back time for the South. Not the best reason but a real one.
Secondly, the oil payment. With all the money North has to give back and is not willing to… I know many countries who would go to war.
Finally: finish Garang job and change the North… Utopia…

Lakes’ Agaar-Pakam and Warrap’s Luanyjang sign peace
The communities of Dinka Agaar-Pakam of Rumbek North County of Lakes State and Luanyjang of Tonj East County of Warap State have agreed to settle their differences on Tuesday at the end of a three day peace and reconciliation conference held in Wunlit payam of Tonj East County.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34541

The country is just a mosaic of peace agreements between tribes and sometimes including the government…
Preventing civil war is also one of the major concern. And what is better than a war with North to hide a internal civil war and “ethnic cleasing”?

[M-A Lagrange]

Top UN Official Stresses National Ownership of Upcoming Elections

"Elections need to take place according to timelines subscribed by the CPA [Comprehensive Peace Agreement], and they have to be conducted in a conducive atmosphere to ensure a free and fair process," said Haile Menkerios today in Khartoum, in his first press conference since becoming the Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) and head of UNMIS.
"The CPA, however, is an agreement by the two Parties. And should the two Parties decide whether to have the elections on time or should they want to postpone them for a time, it is up to them," the Special Representative added.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201003290002.html

I believe it's a new approach for ownership: this belongs to me so I have the right to not do it. With election and democratization it's kind of funny/fuzzy.
I own elections so I have the right to not have it... But I stay a legitimete populace representative government.

Personnally, I love it!
And now, ladies and gentlemen, welcome the democraticly non elected dictators! Super cool!

Just for fun, here is the link for the Amnesty international sudan election observers briefing:
http://www.amnesty.org/fr/library/in...54/009/2010/en

[M-A Lagrange]

Yassir Arman quits Sudan presidential poll

A leading contender for president of Sudan has withdrawn his candidacy, casting more doubt over the country’s first fully-contested poll since 1986.
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) said Yassir Arman would not stand against President Omar al-Bashir.
The SPLM – former rebels from the south – blamed the continuing conflict in the Darfur region and “electoral irregularities” for his withdrawal.

http://www.africa-times-news.com/201...idential-poll/

Some even speak of a secret agreement:

Sudan opposition stunned by Arman’s withdrawal amid talk of secret NCP-SPLM deal
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34607

SPLM can say what ever they want, this was proposed to them longtime ago by Bashir.
There is nothing secret neither: NCP did not propose candidates for the Souh sudan presidentitial post neither for the States Governors.

Bashir and Kiir shared the cake and f### ##u the people, the West and your stupid elections...
Welcome in the new democratic Sudan!

Sometimes we should be a little harder with the people we help for decades!

[M-A Lagrange]

Is the boycott of the election really a surprise in Sudan? That’s the real question. The CPA, the core agreement leading to those elections has been signed by 2 parties only: NCP (represented by Bashir) and SPLM (represented by Garang).
What was the meaning of the CPA at that time? The opening of Sudan to democracy? Absolutely not!
It was a peace agreement between two opponents to cease the conflict. Democratisation of Sudan was like the sherry on the top of the cake, a collateral effect of the process. It was Garang objective. But Garang is no more and the CPA became the baseline agreement for the separation of Sudan in 2 independent bodies.
If you look closely at the election process in Sudan you can see that NCP is almost not present in South (at least not at decision making level). SPLM had only to find a good argument that would please the opinion and blame Bashir to do the same in North. And that’s what they did.

Did we really want to have a democratic Sudan?
Definitively not!
South Sudan is not unified and even less united. In most of the country, SPLA, SSPS and other organised forces are not capable to hold the monopoly of violence. So they cannot rule the place by the law as they do not have the capacity to enforce the law. The Rule of Law approach failed not because SPLM was not capable (SPLM capable of it is another question) but because the State administration was not functioning. So, for external and regional powers, South Sudan is more stable if there is a fake democracy.
In North, Rule of Law could have been implemented. But do regional and external powers want extremist Muslim parties in power. Does Egypt accept the idea to have a Muslim Brotherhood safe heaven as neighbour? Do the Western countries loose their influence in the sub region by allowing an extremist Muslim party to come in power? Absolutely not and every body acknowledge it.
The end of stabilization being stability in the country but also in the sub region, Sudan elections were doomed since the very first day John Garang died.

So what went wrong?
Nothing!
It’s only that the comprehension of CPA has evolved but not the position of bodies as the Carter Center or international NGO.
SPLM and NCP took beats and pieces of CPA as a draft of they separation agreement. And SPLM is not a master player...

What are Sudan elections really questioning in stabilization process is the definition of the end.
Is “fair and transparent democratic Nation” stabilization operation’s end?
During Cold War, the political model was at stake as it was reflecting an opposition of 2 economical models (Capitalism VS Communism). Nowadays, the real post Cold War consensus is the supremacy of capitalistic economical model but certainly not the democratic political model. But we are still focussed on the Cold War consensus of installation of democratic process as the end.
Stabilization operations, to be successful have to be revised. In highly economically degraded environment, what builds a real State legitimacy is not only the respect of the law but it is capacity to provide an economically population centric protective environment.
Otherwise, we will always end up with unstable regimes, elected but non democratic, weak and incapable to protect their population… And finally delaying wars but never ending them.
May be buying time is all what we can do.

[M-A Lagrange]

Renewed Conflict in Sudan

A key challenge facing the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement that ended the civil war in Sudan is whether the January 2011 referendum in which the South and the oil-rich region of Abeyi can vote to secede from the North is honored. Other triggers for renewed conflict between the north and south include political manipulation of the forthcoming general elections by the ruling party, failure to complete border demarcation prior to the referendum, and disagreement over-post referendum oil revenue distribution. The author calls on all stakeholders to enforce the CPA but singles out the United States as pivotal. To this end, she urges the United States and the international community to unequivocally back southern self-determination through robust diplomatic engagement so that neither party has incentive to renege on its commitments to the CPA. The author also recommends that the United States not endorse an election result that falls short of the minimal standards of credibility, which should be clearly defined in advance. Finally, she urges the United States to lead in preparing for the highly probable result of a separate southern Sudan.

http://africacenter.org/2010/04/rene...lict-in-sudan/

An interesting communication from council of Foreign Relations

Otherwise, an interesting development of the election boycott:

Withdrawn SPLM candidate violated Elections Act, says NEC
According to NEC’s Jersa Kide, Mr. Arman’s recent withdrawal should have taken place within a period of not less than 45 days prior to polling day, provided he notified the Commission of his actions in a signed written form that would have been legally authenticated.
Citing section 45 (3) of the 2008 Act, the NEC official said, "The candidate shall not withdraw her/his nomination after the period specified in section (1) and his name shall be included on the ballot paper and any vote cast for him/her on polling day shall be deemed valid".

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34652

And the US to wonder if some delay could be a solution. With Bashir insulting everyone at the end:
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34662

Despite the crazy talk from Bashir and the US and SPLM playing at should I go or should I stay… NEC is doing what looks to me as what JMM describes as lawfare. Well, at least to a fuzzy move to actually force SPLM to stay in the course and make those election credible.
I just do not see the benefit. Let's dream and imagine that SPLM candidate in North is elected while boycotting the elections. I do not see Bashir and SAF nicely and fairly saying: we lost, please take the keys of the office.
But by saying SPLM cannot redraw now, Bashir is buying credibility, at least legally. Rule of law, rule of law...

And here is what Moscow thinks about the situation: (Sorry the link is in french)
http://fr.rian.ru/world/20100405/186393760.html

Basically Moscow is saying let’s go for elections. For them, the elections have to happen because of Darfur peace process.
It’s a dam fair and bright comment. The only out come of those elections, part from an increase of tensions between North and South ARE the Doha agreement.