South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[Stan]

This could explain why Russians are more and more cooperative…
More seriously, Russians will not reconcider their participation to UNMIS. They have too much to lose and Bashir is almost insured to stay in powern the North. What ever happens in South, Darfour will still be there. I know, I know, they talk about peace... For the trillion times again, just before elections...
Chances to get peace in North a great but what is even better for the Russians is that chances to have war in South is even bigger.

But anyway, the big news comes from China, once again!

MA,
This is exactly what I was thinking. If Russia goes, the Chinese will be dead on their heals. Setting up a consulate means they are there to stay and guarantee a place for special envoy Margelov to watch the elections

[M-A Lagrange]

WFP warns against hunger coming... And they are right;

Sudan: UN agency warns of massive food deficit in southern region11 January 2010 – The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned today that Southern Sudan is facing a massive food deficit fuelled by drought and widespread insecurity.
The warning comes as Sudan marks the fifth anniversary of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended two decades of conflict between the central government in Khartoum and the southern-based Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.
“With tribal tensions reportedly mounting, there could be similar disruptions to vital food distributions in 2010,” warned the agency, which hopes to feed a total of some 11 million people across the entire country this year.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...1-unnews03.htm

The only thing is that I was present to one of the many meetings WFP had with donors. And to be frank, they were just the worst advocate in the world for their cause. Their argument was: we are WFP give us money so we will distribute food.
If I was donor I would just say: NO! GO BACK AND DO YOUR HOMEWORK!
But they are right...

Just for the pleasure to be politically paranoide, in the South Green belt, they exported 100 trucks of 25 tonnes of food to North Uganda this year, according to a State ministry of Agriculture.
Even if they did half of it, apparently Ugandan market is much more interresting than South sudan market. May be because in North Uganda there is also hunger but the people have money and the government is not broke?
But as I said, I'm a political paranoide.

Well, you also have to had this:

Sudan Stakes New Claim on Uganda LandThe meeting that was convened to discuss the border dispute between Uganda and Sudan turned chaotic after the Sudanese team tabled a document claiming more areas of Moyo and Yumbe districts.
In the 17-paged report presented by the Kajo Keji commissioner, Muki Batali Bulli, the Sudanese community of Kuku did not only claim “ancestral” ownership of the 5km-stretch of land that has been at the centre of the conflict but also other areas in Moyo and Yumbe.
The meeting chaired by the international affairs state minister, Henry Okello Oryem, at Multipurpose Hall in Moyo town on Saturday, was attended by political leaders and elders from both countries
Muki said the area continues westward to West Eria hill, Lefori and down to Wano, all places in Moyo that have previously been free of controversy.
Other areas claimed in the document include Dwani wano, Goburi land, Bori, Liwolo, Koriwa and several hills and streams.
On the site where the construction of an MTN mast was halted, Muki said the area was called Koturume and lies in the land of the Lito’ba clan from Sudan.
According to Muki, they stopped the construction of the Afoji-Lere road by Moyo district because it passes through Dwani Wano, an area, he said, was occupied by Ugandan refugees following the outbreak of the 1979 war.
“We received you warmly and allowed you to settle. Now the local authorities in Moyo have extended claim over Dwani Wano. The land is undoubtedly Kuku land,” Muki said.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=52828

As I said, I can't believe Ugandan army entered South Sudan just for the pleasure to hunt LRA. Actually, if you look at it closely, they are securing the Great Equatoria Green Belt. And USAID just decided to fund agriculture in South Sudan Great Equatoria Green Belt.
How to put it nicely?
US do not trust GoSS enought for security and does have the same analyses of the situation than Oxfam: South is falling into war and elections will not make any changes.
Also, they need to feed Museweny apparently. Democratic opening does not seem to be for everyone.

Let say it's a coincidence and not the too well known Kagame strategy to colonise a weak neigboor and his huge natural ressources...

[Stan]

MA,
I just coincidentally finished a documentary translated from French to Estonian on the GoSS.

The Frenchman (MSF) claims that people are still being set on fire and villages plundered to drive the population north.

Although there was much USA-bashing for the current regime in Sudan, in closing they mentioned the Chinese ready to provide "economic aid" with the new elections.

[M-A Lagrange]

Stan,

I will not criticise MSF, I'm a former MSF and the saved me when I had malaria in lost place in DRC but...
They do not really know how to communicate. I believe we read the same article and I have to agree with them. But they are too often focused on the great western evil powers. They started to have a teeth against China, I have to recognise. But the Maoist heritage from Kouchner is heavy to carry and they have difficulties to throw it away.

It makes months I am trying to get them in a lost part of South Sudan where there is no health, no government, no NGO, nothing.
And they came to make a surgery assessment...
Sometimes, it's difficult to get them out of the glamorous spots. But as all the others, they need money and 2010 will be difficult.
Saying so, they did and are doing great job in all the worst places where LRA is or Jongley.
I am surprised MSF-USA (doctor without borders) did not publish it in english. But if MSF is a big familly, like in all families, they are not all good friends.

[M-A Lagrange]

Elections:

Sudan’s NCP hints at possibility of alliance with SPLM in elections

The Sudanese ruling National Congress Party (NCP) expressed openness to the idea of an alliance with its rival representing the South in the upcoming April elections, a senior official said today. The presidential assistant and deputy NCP chairman Nafie Ali Nafie, speaking at a press conference today affirmed that his party is committed to holding the elections as scheduled. Nafie stressed that the NCP will accept the choice of the people irrespective of the outcome, hinting to the possibility of alliance with Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) “in light of the keenness of both sides to implement of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and maintaining the unity”.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33764

Gration calls on EU to provide monitors, funds for Sudan voteMajor General (Ret.) Scott Gration, the US presidential envoy to Sudan, in a meeting with the press today called on the European Union to send some 300 elections monitors to Sudan in time for the April nationwide elections.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33749

The push for Sudan Unity is stronger and stronger from US. The EU seems to be keen to pay and control it but up to which extend?
The US strategy to let the former colonial powers deal with local indirectly terror linked issues in Africa seems to be still on the run.
But I cannot see EU doing it for free.
South Sudan agriculture and Rwanda/Uganda non interference in DRC against oil? Seems to be a loose deal.
May be EU expect AFRICOM to become the gendarme de l’Afrique in its place?

Any ways, official candidate list from NCP for North has come out. The one for South is expected in the coming days.

NCP Deputy Head for organizational affairs Dr. Nafei Ali Nafei said that his party has choosen the following:-
Fathi Khalil for the Northern State, Al-Hadi Abdullah for River Nile, Dr. Abdul Rahman Al-Khidir for Khartoum, Al-Zubeir Basher Taha for Al-Jazeera, Ahmed Abbas for Sennar, Ahmed Karemeno for Blue Nile, Karamallah Abbass for Gedarif, Mohammed Yousif Adam for Kassala, Mohammed Tahir Aila for the Red Sea, Yousif Al-Shenbali for White Nile, Faisal Hassan for Northern Kordofan, Ahmed Haroun for Southern Kordofan, Mohammed Yousif Kibir for Northern Darfur, Abdul Hamid Kasha for Southern Darfur and Jaafar Abdul Hakem for Western Darfur.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=53050

and the Chinese:

Sudan and China discuss expansion of Khartoum refinery
Sudan’s oil minister Al-Zubair Ahmed Al-Hassan was in China for talks on Khartoum refinery expansion, the official news agency SUNA reported today.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33765

Seems that Sudan is the new wild wild west of Africa those days. I wonder how that ménage a 3 (or more) between US, Russia and China will turn. Chinese are new players but strong ones with heavy arguments.

And this link on Sudan from our Quebecois friends:

General link on Sudan and UNMIS from University of Montreal
http://operationspaix.net/spip.php?p...=132&date=2010

A bit official but nice stuff on this site.