South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

Washington is prepared for South Sudan secession – Gration
"Looking at the realities on the ground, it is highly likely that the south will chose independence," Gration said.
Refugees International, a US based group in a report released today urged the United Nations, non-governmental organizations and donor governments to draw up plans for possible conflict around the 2011 referendum.
Ahead of the multiparty election and the referendum of 2011, the group said the US and international community "must do everything possible to ensure that the governments in north and south Sudan reach agreement on outstanding issues before the referendum, the humanitarian community must simultaneously prepare to respond if conflict erupts around the upcoming political events".
"I don’t see that the north has to reinvade the south and start the war again," Gration said. "If we can resolve these issues, I think there is a fairly good chance that ... the south can have a civil divorce, not a civil war."
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34547

I fully agree there are very few reasons why North would reinvade South. But there are many reason for the South to invade North.
First of them is that it’s pay back time for the South. Not the best reason but a real one.
Secondly, the oil payment. With all the money North has to give back and is not willing to… I know many countries who would go to war.
Finally: finish Garang job and change the North… Utopia…

Lakes’ Agaar-Pakam and Warrap’s Luanyjang sign peace
The communities of Dinka Agaar-Pakam of Rumbek North County of Lakes State and Luanyjang of Tonj East County of Warap State have agreed to settle their differences on Tuesday at the end of a three day peace and reconciliation conference held in Wunlit payam of Tonj East County.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article34541

The country is just a mosaic of peace agreements between tribes and sometimes including the government…
Preventing civil war is also one of the major concern. And what is better than a war with North to hide a internal civil war and “ethnic cleasing”?