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Thread: South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

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  1. #1
    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    Default Building dictatorship and war

    SPLM says will not endorse national security bill

    The current law, the 1999 National Security Forces Act, allows the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) to arrest and detain people without charge for up to nine months, and without judicial review for six months. It also grants them broad powers of search and seizure, and contains immunity provisions.
    Yaser Arman, the leader of SPLM block at the Sudanese parliament and SPLM deputy Secretary General for northern Sudan, told Sudan Tribune Thursday they reiterated their opposition to the national security bill during the meeting because they "are opposed the powers to arrest, detention, search and seizure, and immunities for national security personnel," he said.

    http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33492

    I agree with them but they have to propose something. The old strategy of being opposed to everything did not work in any of the African countries. Opposition has to come with propositions and bill draft, not just oppose.


    South Sudan army minister says peace is vital for growth

    Defense forces have a critical responsibility of preserving, protecting and defending the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country to safeguard citizens from internal and external aggression, the minister said.
    Nhial further blatantly admitted Government cognizant of numerous challenges particularly those personnel in the defense force faces in carrying out their duties, he called on men and women in uniforms not to deviate from the cause of the SPLM.

    Here again, who will disagree with such the assertion that defense forces have the responsibility to protect and defend the people? No one.

    But in a nation, an army (here the SPLA) is not the army of a party (the SPLM).
    Once again, nation building hits at full speed its limits and our great incapacity to introduce and conduct security reforms in post conflict countries and fragile states.
    Nations are built on two things: the ownership of power sharing mechanism by the people (democracy) AND the ownership violence monopoly by the people through defense forces (the submission of the army to a State apparatus and not a party).
    US army is the tool of a nation not the property of a man or a party.

    SPLA has to be the tool of a nation and not the armed wing of a party.
    What we are building in South Sudan is a democratic dictatorship.
    Elections are not fake because parties will tickle the boxes but because democratic power basics are not in place in Sudan.

    As long as the elite of North and South Sudan will not be able to separate military and political power, the democratisation process supported by the UN will never build a democratic nation. It will just give another flavor to a dictatorship. In Sudan as in so many other places…
    But by saying so, I just said that nation building is not just limited to elections and replacing an elite by another. I just rejected all assumptions of nation building as we do it to day.

    But the worst comes from IGC:

    the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, examines the situation in the run-up to national elections due next year and the early 2011 referendum on self-determination in the South. It concludes that key elements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the two-decades-long civil war between North and South Sudan, have not been implemented. The failure to foster democratic transformation in the North has also undermined the chances for political settlement in Darfur and exacerbated tensions in other parts of the country.
    “Sudan is sliding towards violent breakup, and time is running out” says Fouad Hikmat, Crisis Group’s Sudan Adviser. “Less than thirteen months remain to ensure that national elections and the South’s self-determination referendum lead to democratic transformation and stability in the country”.
    The current negotiations between President Bashir’s National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) cannot achieve an all-Sudan peace. Both want elections but for the wrong reasons. Bashir’s party wants to re-establish its political legitimacy, the SPLM to ensure that the referendum, which must be no later than 9 January 2011, goes ahead.

    http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6438&l=1

    In one word, neither North nor South are looking to build a democratic nation through an electoral process but are looking for a just war coming from electoral boxes.

    And the proof of how bad it is from Small Arms Survey :
    According to Small Arms Survey, North army is strong of 225000 men and 310000 small fire arms. South army is strong of 125000 men with 175000 small fire arms. This is naturally without counting the 2 000 000 small arms hold by civilian population. Neither the 100 tanks bought by South and North military industrial capacity.

  2. #2
    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    Default And South Sudan goes deeper on the path of failed state building

    There has been a lot of news about South Sudan this week end. Elections, yes! But also many on core issues as the security bill, local governance, climate…

    First the serious news:

    Parliament voted the security bill

    The law voted on Sunday still gives power to National Security to arrest and conduct investigations without real accusations but the duration of detention has passed from 3 times 3 months to a maximum of 4.5 months.
    In fact the details are not that much different from what we have in our post 9/11 western countries.
    SPLM voted against and the National Alliance, Minni Minnawi’s party (from Darfur) left the parliament…

    In fact SPLM point is very clear and is one more time linked to CPA. This law does not comply with transitional CPA constitution.
    But as they do not comply so much with CPA constitution is South, specially on SPLA deployment locations… I wonder to who we could throw the first stone.

    Anyway, Human Right Watch already denounced it. I wonder what they will say when South Sudan will pass an internal security Bill…
    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...Ow49EJlorMlahw
    (in French)

    Elections:

    Once again, Catholic Church is call for rescue and legitimacy.
    Governor calls on church for moral supports during elections
    http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33525

    More seriously, once again, fake elections will cost a huge amount of money:
    UNDP funds $91m programme to support Sudan’s election
    The UNDP program, which is funded by the governments of Italy, United Kingdom, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Spain, Japan, Netherlands, France and the European Commission, will cover all the materials needed for the elections including voting cards, ballot boxes, and educational campaigns for voters, together with training sessions for election officers and local police.
    http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33503
    After the disastrous election funding in DRC, EU tries again to buy an African country…

    Local governance:
    South Sudan calls for traditional leadership involvement in conflict resolution
    The government of the semi autonomous region of South Sudan has called for traditional leadership involvement in conflict resolution in the region awash with fire arms and other weapons.
    The regional government has in recent past witnessed regular killing of innocent people mostly children, women elderly and other vulnerable groups.
    It is also experiencing public hateful and/or divisive speeches mainly from intellectuals seeking political appointments in the government as alternatives to reaching compromises.
    Do not want to be arch on this but once again, central African power calls “tradition” to the rescue. When will we escape from the infernal circle of the African tradition as the solution to all the problems, especially bad governance and corruption?
    If intellectuals are complaining about governance, monopoly of violence, accountability… It’s not in appointing local illiterate traditional chief that thingswill change.
    South Sudan is just taking the old path of a too well known African dictatorial regime. I guess the advice comes from Uganda. Former Ugandan leader used the same trick to lower down intellectual opposition.

    In my knowledge, it’s the same local traditional leaders who are complaining the youth is not listening to them.

    As stated into the very well documented and excellent “guide to rebuild governance in stability operations: a role for the military?”, traditional leaders are often the source of ultra local conflicts and use of violence.

    Then the funny news:

    Climate:
    Some are trying to use Darfur as the first climate war.
    http://www.cyberpresse.ca/le-soleil/...bonne-note.php
    Well, I am sorry, but Darfur war is based on power sharing and development benefit access. It is not even an ethnic war. Environmental changes have nothing to do with that ever going on war that pop up in western news papers only in 2004.
    What happened in Darfur since 2004 is more or less linked with the CPA (even more than less). Khartoum faced an insurgency after being defeated by another insurgency. The response is the worst in the word, yes. But it is not due to climate. Otherwise Chadian war is due to climate. And my experience in that beautiful sunny sandy desert tells me that mass population movement and thousands years of no environmental management is far from being at the center of the conflict. Politics, yes.
    Climate may be the war cause of tomorrow but do not try to reduce once again complex African political issues on power and economical access into a small tiny box!
    African wars are as political as Western, Arab, South American, Asian wars! To quote Wilf quoting Clausewitz: war is politic.

    I guess, as the opinion is coming from Quebec, it’s just Canada trying to get access to its oil fields. (But I am a political paranoid).

    And still the hostages:

    Red Cross calls for unconditional release of kidnapped staff members.
    http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33522
    Message is clear, nothing to add.


    For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!

  3. #3
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Default MA, I almost spewed my beer

    onto my keyboard and monitor

    "With the financial support, provided by the donors, the NEC can affirm its ability to organize free, fair and credible elections", he added.
    Have any of these so-called donors ever seen a free and fair election in Africa

    I did get kick out of the Carter Center's "However" regarding their campaign contributions

    Unfortunately, 13 of Sudan's 25 states fell short of the NEC's registration targets, including all three states in the Darfur region.
    So, exactly how many people really did register ?
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

  4. #4
    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    Default registration??? Is that the real problem...

    Stan,

    I will try to respond to your question on registration.
    In South, things went not that bad. The main problem is not really registration but rather the figures they will present.
    First of all, there has been an over estimation of South Sudan population by SPLA during CPA talks. Census and reality have shown that only around 4 million people are actually present in South Sudan. Then only half of them are in age to vote…
    Basically IDPs in Darfur used their last weapon to resist against the UN circus and elections: they boycotted registration.
    In South, as in the state where I am, I would simply say that even dead and babies will vote.
    Figures are anyway all fake from the very first day.
    - SPLA over estimated its population so they could threat Khartoum.
    - Khartoum is running an anti election campaign as they may loose presidential election if they go for transparency and fair elections.

    Few months ago, a report called tickle the boxes went out to explain why all parts will cheat. And, at that time, my comment was: only Khartoum needs to tickle the box; in South, military will probably just make a coup if not elected.

    For more details on elections (what a joke) please, have a look at:
    Imagine the elections from NDI:
    http://www.ndi.org/node/15795

    Oxford analytica
    http://www.oxan.com/countries.aspx?country=Sudan

    And Carter centre…
    http://cartercenter.org/news/pr/sudan-081909.html
    But I must say that I am not very much impressed by them.

  5. #5
    Council Member Stan's Avatar
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    Default

    MA, Thanks for the links (especially another Carter Link !).

    I wasn't trying to be sarcastic

    I once visited Juba from Zaire, but then the governing authority were mostly military. So I find it hard to believe that something democratic will come from these "free and fair" elections in GoSS.

    I noticed there is also a reserved election position for a female candidate. I can't imagine what that will do in Khartoum

    Do the locals still refer to Khartoum as Qadaffi’s egg ?

    Regards, Stan
    If you want to blend in, take the bus

  6. #6
    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    Default I can't tell about the Kadafi eggs

    What I see for the moment is SPLA soldiers visiting villages and saying: tell what you need and the UN will give it to you.

    There is no such thing as free and fair election in GoSS. They all are former or members of the SPLA with stupid ranks. I did not even new that South Sudan could host so many divisions brigader general and major general and...

    But, yes, you just got it. GoSS is not a government of South Sudan people, it's a club for SPLA high ranked generals.
    The idea that an army is serving a government is just not crossing their mind.

    There is something to be written on Central Africa: the tomb of Nation Building...

  7. #7
    Council Member M-A Lagrange's Avatar
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    Default

    Elections:

    On December 22, NCP put a claim for fraud on elections registration.

    In South Sudan, more than 5 million individuals have been registered while only around 4 million were expected according to census. It is nearly 131% of the potential electors that have been registered in South Sudan.
    As I was mentioning in a previous post, the main question here id not who is cheating, it is the completely fake figures that have been used by all sides.
    In which country around this world, with a real democracy, 100% of electors are registered? In South Sudan, that is not a problem, it is even the norm.
    What I found amazing is that Carter Center and other watchers are not even reacting when South is doing such things.

    Referendum:
    2011 referendum is the core object of the for the moment legal battle.
    On December 23, NCP introduced a new amendment to referendum bill.
    http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33553
    Sudan’s parliament endorses referendum bill, SPLM protests amendments
    December 22, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — Leaders from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) along with other South Sudan political parties walked out of the National Assembly in protest of a new amendment introduced to South Sudan referendum bill.

    But on 23, NCP redrew its amendment:
    Sudan’s ruling NCP sends referendum bill back to parliament for reconsideration
    December 23, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – The ruling National Congress Party (NCP) today made a highly unexpected move and agreed to demands by the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) on removing the amendments made to the controversial South Sudan referendum bill adopted by the National Assembly this week.
    “We [SPLM & NCP] agreed on the fact that the law on the referendum will be resubmitted to parliament on Monday to be adopted with the article that had been removed,” the SPLM Vice president Riek Machar said.
    A political observer in Khartoum Sudan Tribune that the “extraordinary” change of heart by the NCP” is driven by the fear that the SPLM would join opposition ranks in an alliance against the ruling party.
    http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33567

    Anyways, this is not to please US:

    Washington accuses Sudan’s NCP of reneging on CPA accord

    December 24, 2009 (WASHINGTON) – The United States is “deeply concerned” about modifications made to the South Sudan referendum bill ahead of its passage Tuesday in the national assembly and accused the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) of breaching the terms of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
    http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33569

    What has to be understood is that CPA aim is not peace for the big people of this world… It is a tool to open Sudan regime to democracy. I do agree with the objective. But counting on South Sudan leaders and especially SPLM to be a democratic rone actor in Sudan… Well, you better look at it twice.
    I know the other and especially Northern opposition parties are “bad people” (they are basically Islamic radical based parties) but taking SPLM for something more than SPLA…
    Let’s have a look at the 2010 elections first and see what comes out, how SPLA, which should be the army of a country and not an armed group or political militia, will act and react to all the power changes.
    From ground, it is far from being done peacefully yet.

    And yet the funny look like news:

    In Juba police commissioner has ordered all shisha/water pipes material to be destroyed as he said: shisha tobacco is like heroin.
    I love when anti arab campaigns are run at such an intellectual level. Especially when it comes from guys who are managing semi alcoholic addict troops…

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