South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

Bashir expresses hope for unity in 2011 referndum, promises Darfur peace

January 3, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – Sudanese President Omer Hassan Al-Bashir, today expressed hope that southern Sudanese will vote for unity in a self-determination referendum scheduled to take place in January next year.
"Days are going towards the holding of elections (…) and will come the date of referendum where (people) have to say their word without pressure. We hope, with determination, that unity would be the fruit of peace and its biggest reward," he said
"We promise you that the peace circle will be complete, God willing, so as to be a really comprehensive peace that will soon be enjoyed by the beloved parts of Darfur and its steadfast and generous people" Bashir said.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33672

Either Bashir lost his mind about Darfur, either US and Chinese lobby is extremely strong. As I said since the beginning, South wants independence but they are more and more the only one. But as long it’s only Bashir who calls for unity, we are far from a unity option in 2011.

I was at a SPLM rally this week end and funny or not, they opened the meeting with the fact that 2010 will be the year of partition. May be, realizing after they had UN guest, they came back to 2010 the year for elections, but local, not national. Those presidential elections look more and more as a complete joke.

Actually the states with more than 100% of voter registered refuse to send their data to Khartoum to the NEC. They are saying they did not well do the census. Yes, right, that is true… But guys: why do you do #### work at the beginning and then look for a pretext to go for war?

Anyway, some candidates are coming, starting by my favorite for the moment
Hassan Tourabi announced he nominated Abdullah Deng Nial as Popular Congress Party. He will run as independent. (AFP news)
Abdullah Deng Nial is from South and is a former John Garang family member… (PCP information)

Let’s go for Rock’n Roll… An extreme extremist candidate and a former Garang family member… Presidential elections will be wild. I love this: a southerner radical Muslim running for united Sudan presidential elections…
I am waiting for what GoSS will come with: a Northerner Christian preaching unilateral declaration of independence for South?

Stan, I'am going on patrol for a week so sorry for not responding immediatly. But interresting question in deed.

[M-A Lagrange]

That ‘s normal I’ve been told but still, I have difficulties to go with it sometimes.
I'll make 2 post as too many stuff happened.

First of all, the coming elections:

Sudan’s URRP leader to run for presidency in 2010
The Umma Reform and Renewal Party (URRP) announced today that it has nominated its leader Mubarak Al-Fadil to run for president in the April 2010 elections making it the third party in the country to name its candidate.
Al-Fadil was appointed by Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir as a presidential adviser for economic affairs in 2002 before being removed in October 2004. He has became one of the fiercest critics of the NCP ever since.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33680

SPLM ends nomination of candidates in Sudan
The leadership of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) today confirmed ending of the nomination of candidates aspiring for parliamentary and executive seats as state governors across the country.
"Their names will be made public no later than 14 January 2010 after thorough discussions from political bureau," he said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33690

As I said previously, officials actually in post will have to resign to conduct electoral campaign. If that’s not a problem for North opposition (they are not in power) and Bashir (he just doesn’t care), this is a huge security breach for SPLM in South. They better choose wisely.

Then the referendum
It’s not me who say that, for ones, but:

Sudanese NCP official criticizes referendum law as ‘recipe for war’

The Sudanese presidential adviser Ghazi Salah Al-Deen Al-Attabani and the leader of the National Congress parliamentary bloc criticized a portion of the referendum law adopted in the national assembly last month saying it contains a ‘recipe of war’ in it.
Al-Attabani voiced doubts about the meaning of a partnership with a “secessionist movement that does not even recognize Sudan’s independence”. He said the SPLM is proposing the New Sudan project which he described as an incriminating proposal because it “criminalizes the history of Sudan and does not even recognize its independence”.
The NCP official also accused the SPLM of failure because of lack of clarity in putting forward the New Sudan project adding that this is also due to the paralysis of its political will.
He also referred to the Juba conference held last September under the auspices of the SPLM which included Northern opposition parties saying that it lost its moral legitimacy and was effectively a venue to put the NCP on trial.
And then came the crazy news:
South Sudan independence a “reality”, NCP official says
Al-Dardiri Mohamed Ahmed, a leading figure at the NCP, was quoted by local press as saying that the separation of the south from the north became the “reality and inevitable” blaming the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM) for this outcome.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33731

To be realistic, at the moment, there are 8 tanks and ACP, illegally imported from Kenya by GoSS that are stuck in the mud on Juba road guarded by SPLA beating up SAF soldiers… I am not sure they will wait for referendum to go at war.

PS: Stan, I do not forget your question. It’s coming. Give me time, I’ve several hundreds mails to respond to and a shower to take.

[M-A Lagrange]

Government slams foreign organizations’ report on return to war in Sudan
The Sudanese Foreign Ministry criticized a conclusion reached by some NGOs operating in southern Sudan that said that Sudan may be heading for a new cycle of war under the current prevailing conditions in the South.
The report, "Rescuing the Peace in Southern Sudan", was written on behalf of ten international non-governmental organization. It said that the upsurge of violence during the last year "could escalate even further and become one of the biggest emergencies in Africa in 2010."

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33719

10 NGO call for peace as they see war coming and what Khartoum says: you are wrong!
Hey guys, just say: yes SPLM is not capable to enforce peace. That’s the same and closer to reality that just saying no. If NCP stays in power, they will just let the situation go worst anyway.

I spend the week talking with tribal leaders and elders. They all are on the path of war. Not against the government but against the neighbors with cattle… They’re just waiting the election campaign and the lack of authority to go for it, when it’s not already done.

Fighting in Warrap state leaves at least 139 dead
Clashes between Dinka and Nuer ethnic groups this week in Warrap state left at least 139 people dead. The fighting, purportedly over cattle, also left at least 90 wounded and several thousands head of cattle looted.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33707

NGOs urge Security Council to consider more resources for UNMISA group of aid agencies issued a joint report today that urged the UN Security Council to consider whether the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) needs more resources, pointing out that civilians in South Sudan are at risk, particularly in rural areas.
"The UN Security Council (UNSC) should emphasize that protecting civilians must be a priority for UNMIS and consider whether UNMIS needs more resources to meet its mandated obligations," states the NGOs’ Joint Briefing Paper issued today.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33709

Reminds me some bad times from DRC… The last 2 years actually!

More seriously, South Sudan is facing a real threat that will undermine any form of government in the coming future: ethnical fascism.
I know, it’s not politically correct to speak like this but the main problem all over the place is the Dinka tendency to believe that South Sudan belongs to them. Last year, most of the killings were due to Dinka and other tribes clashes. This year, it will be the same. Where I am, the only clashes taken in account by the government are the ones involving Dinka. I even went to a place where you had a chief for the local people and a Dinka chief to make the link between SPLA and the local chief.
According to me, South Sudan is a good example of the diseases of nationalism and failures of nation building: ethnical fascism legitimized by fake elections made in the name of peace.
SPLA should be a national army but it’s a Dinka army used by “politicians” to earn and eat the economical benefits of the war. You better be a Dinka or protecting Dinka interests in South Sudan if you want to live long…
The people I met on the ground were just afraid of SPLA. The only one who were not, were those with enough fire power to fight back...

What we really do not know to do is ending small wars. Backing up and training guys to fight in the jungle or freezing mountains… We’re all the best. But finding a path to stability and functional administration… We’re just a bunch of losers.

There is some highly theoretical work to be done on the subject.
I take a shower and come back.

[M-A Lagrange]

Russian special envoy remarks on Bashir’s reelection draw fire
The Sudanese political forces reacted angrily to statements made by Russian special envoy Mikhail Margelov in which he appeared to be endorsing president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir for another term in the upcoming presidential elections.
“I have not yet seen this alternative [to Bashir] even back in January when I had to convince [our] western partners that the arrest warrant by International Criminal Court (ICC) to arrest the Sudanese president is not viable and unrealistic” Margelov was quoted as saying in response to a question on availability of other candidates to run for president against Bashir.
Mariam Al-Mahdi, a senior figure in the Umma national party, deplored statements by Margelov saying that the choice of who to become president should be made by the Sudanese people.
“The Russian envoy has little understanding of the Sudanese political arena. He has limited his dialogue during his tenure to the two partners [in GoNU NCP & SPLM] so all he really saw was Bashir” the daughter of the former prime minister said.
The leader of the Popular Congress Party (PCP) Hassan Al-Turabi expressed “surprise” over Margelov’s position but downplayed its significance.
“The Russians have only recently been acquainted with democracy and are still carrying the burden of totalitarian rule. What he [Margelov] said has no impact on the ground and with no weight” Al-Turabi said.
“He [Margelov] did not meet with other political parties besides the ones in power or create channels of communication with us so his understanding is lacking. He knows nothing about Sudan or its problems like in South or Darfur or even the country’s history and what happened in the last twenty years [since Bashir came to power],” the Islamist opposition leader added.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33409

Actually Margelov comments are quite relevant and western powers do think the same; even USA. That is the main problem in fact, if not Bashir who else?

Basically, for the moment, Russia is providing the air transport to the UN (As usual). Up to now, MI8 pilots were mainly playing Khartoum game. It has been a hell to get the helicopters on some places long the Ethiopian and Kenyan border. But now, things are getting better…

Russia has to open consulate in South Sudan – envoy
Russia should open a consulate in the southern Sudan capital as over 20 countries have their offices there, said Mikhail Margelov the special envoy to Sudan in statements to Russian journalists.
"This is not the first year that the idea of opening a Russian consulate in Southern Sudan in Juba has been discussed, and I am deeply convinced that this should be done and not delayed," reported the Russian RIA Novosti news agency on Wednesday.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33405

This could explain why Russians are more and more cooperative…
More seriously, Russians will not reconcider their participation to UNMIS. They have too much to lose and Bashir is almost insured to stay in powern the North. What ever happens in South, Darfour will still be there. I know, I know, they talk about peace... For the trillion times again, just before elections...
Chances to get peace in North a great but what is even better for the Russians is that chances to have war in South is even bigger.

But anyway, the big news comes from China, once again!

China has been thanked by Kenyan government for its financial support for the construction of a road and rail way channel for Sudanese Oil to Lamu harbor in Kenya. AFP January 6 2010.

For the moment it's Port Sudan which is the main point for Oil export. This tells long about the efforts put to get South Sudan on tracks.
The only clouds I see, there is actually a conflict inside GoSS and SPLM/SPLA between pro Kenya and pro Uganda.
The coming elections will tell us who will win that battle. Uganda is actually having some strong positions in South Sudan. The LRA hunt has allow Museweni to send an important number of troops inside South Sudan. It's difficult for me to not see the Kagame mentor not applying Rwanda tactic to basically militarily colonize South Sudan. LRA looks like another fake FDLR threat to me…

[Stan]

This could explain why Russians are more and more cooperative…
More seriously, Russians will not reconcider their participation to UNMIS. They have too much to lose and Bashir is almost insured to stay in powern the North. What ever happens in South, Darfour will still be there. I know, I know, they talk about peace... For the trillion times again, just before elections...
Chances to get peace in North a great but what is even better for the Russians is that chances to have war in South is even bigger.

But anyway, the big news comes from China, once again!

MA,
This is exactly what I was thinking. If Russia goes, the Chinese will be dead on their heals. Setting up a consulate means they are there to stay and guarantee a place for special envoy Margelov to watch the elections

[M-A Lagrange]

WFP warns against hunger coming... And they are right;

Sudan: UN agency warns of massive food deficit in southern region11 January 2010 – The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned today that Southern Sudan is facing a massive food deficit fuelled by drought and widespread insecurity.
The warning comes as Sudan marks the fifth anniversary of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended two decades of conflict between the central government in Khartoum and the southern-based Sudan People’s Liberation Movement.
“With tribal tensions reportedly mounting, there could be similar disruptions to vital food distributions in 2010,” warned the agency, which hopes to feed a total of some 11 million people across the entire country this year.

http://www.globalsecurity.org/milita...1-unnews03.htm

The only thing is that I was present to one of the many meetings WFP had with donors. And to be frank, they were just the worst advocate in the world for their cause. Their argument was: we are WFP give us money so we will distribute food.
If I was donor I would just say: NO! GO BACK AND DO YOUR HOMEWORK!
But they are right...

Just for the pleasure to be politically paranoide, in the South Green belt, they exported 100 trucks of 25 tonnes of food to North Uganda this year, according to a State ministry of Agriculture.
Even if they did half of it, apparently Ugandan market is much more interresting than South sudan market. May be because in North Uganda there is also hunger but the people have money and the government is not broke?
But as I said, I'm a political paranoide.

Well, you also have to had this:

Sudan Stakes New Claim on Uganda LandThe meeting that was convened to discuss the border dispute between Uganda and Sudan turned chaotic after the Sudanese team tabled a document claiming more areas of Moyo and Yumbe districts.
In the 17-paged report presented by the Kajo Keji commissioner, Muki Batali Bulli, the Sudanese community of Kuku did not only claim “ancestral” ownership of the 5km-stretch of land that has been at the centre of the conflict but also other areas in Moyo and Yumbe.
The meeting chaired by the international affairs state minister, Henry Okello Oryem, at Multipurpose Hall in Moyo town on Saturday, was attended by political leaders and elders from both countries
Muki said the area continues westward to West Eria hill, Lefori and down to Wano, all places in Moyo that have previously been free of controversy.
Other areas claimed in the document include Dwani wano, Goburi land, Bori, Liwolo, Koriwa and several hills and streams.
On the site where the construction of an MTN mast was halted, Muki said the area was called Koturume and lies in the land of the Lito’ba clan from Sudan.
According to Muki, they stopped the construction of the Afoji-Lere road by Moyo district because it passes through Dwani Wano, an area, he said, was occupied by Ugandan refugees following the outbreak of the 1979 war.
“We received you warmly and allowed you to settle. Now the local authorities in Moyo have extended claim over Dwani Wano. The land is undoubtedly Kuku land,” Muki said.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=52828

As I said, I can't believe Ugandan army entered South Sudan just for the pleasure to hunt LRA. Actually, if you look at it closely, they are securing the Great Equatoria Green Belt. And USAID just decided to fund agriculture in South Sudan Great Equatoria Green Belt.
How to put it nicely?
US do not trust GoSS enought for security and does have the same analyses of the situation than Oxfam: South is falling into war and elections will not make any changes.
Also, they need to feed Museweny apparently. Democratic opening does not seem to be for everyone.

Let say it's a coincidence and not the too well known Kagame strategy to colonise a weak neigboor and his huge natural ressources...

[Stan]

MA,
I just coincidentally finished a documentary translated from French to Estonian on the GoSS.

The Frenchman (MSF) claims that people are still being set on fire and villages plundered to drive the population north.

Although there was much USA-bashing for the current regime in Sudan, in closing they mentioned the Chinese ready to provide "economic aid" with the new elections.