South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[Colin Robinson]

Prospects don't look good...
Essayons!
Colin

[M-A Lagrange]

In Jonglei this came true. Authorities are asking the people to pay to get registered. They say it’s to be able to pay security forces while waiting for funds to come from the National Referendum commission… I like this idea: first you fight for freedom then you have to buy it once you’re free.
Freedom cost recovery… A new concept for peace building.

Jonglei referendum committee to extend dates at late starting centers“People are deceived that you have to pay 5 Sudanese Pounds (SDG) to register. This is not true,” Boloc said, blaming unspecified "people outside" for the false information”.
Jonglei state assembly passed a ‘Referendum Bill, 2010’ in September asked all citizens to pay a voluntary contribution to help the referendum process.
The bill asked for a non-compulsory 5 SDG from each household although this varied depending on income. It appears that failure to communicate that voluntary nature of the fee has led to some people in Jonglei believing the payment is a requirement when registering.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36974

Just to make it clear to everybody: it’s non-compulsory but mandatory to pay… I wonder why nobody came before with this idea of freedom fighting cost recovery by the population. May be cause that’s not a good idea. Who knows?

Otherwise… The propaganda campaign on who is threatening who has started:

Référendum au Soudan: les ex-rebelles et Khartoum s'accusent d'intimidation
Des responsables du Mouvement populaire de libération du Soudan (SPLM, ex-rebelles sudistes) ont visité samedi des centres d'inscription dans la banlieue de la capitale Khartoum.
A proximité, des "comités de citoyens", "bras" du Parti du congrès national (NCP) au pouvoir à Khartoum, recueillent les numéros de téléphone de Sudistes après leur inscription sur les listes, selon ces responsables.
"Le SPLM encourage les Sudistes au Nord à ne pas s'enregistrer parce qu'ils pensent que la plupart des Sudistes vivant au Nord sont favorables à l'unité. Et comme vous le savez, le SPLM est maintenant en faveur de la séparation", a pour sa part dit à l'AFP Mandour al-Mahdi, haut responsable du parti au pouvoir (NCP).

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...02f17de743.ef1

I translate :
Khartoum and Southern ex-rebels accuse each others of threatening the population:
Representatives of the SPLM visited referendum registration centers on Saturday in Khartoum suburb. Next to the centers, “citizen committees”, the civilian arm of the NCP are collecting Southerners’ phone numbers after they register, according to SPLM representatives.
The SPLM is encouraging Southeners to boycott registration as they think that most of the Southeners living in North are pro Unity. And as you know, SPLM is in favor to separation… Said andour al-Madhi, a high representative from NCP.
Well, SPLM accuse NCP to bully the people to vote for unity and NCP accuses SPLM to tell the people to not vote…

NCP Officially Protests to Referendum Commission Registration Obstructions
Complaint was handed-over by the NCP Deputy Chairman for Political and Organizational Affairs Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie together with NCP Chief in Khartoum State, Dr. Abdel Rahman Al Khidir.
"The commission has barred registration of some southerners for no logical reasons," said Al Khidir considering the move a violation of Article (25) of the Referendum Act. He added that the guides are under age and disqualified for the job.
"Due to these violations, the government has fixed new centers in each of Alkalakla and Shigla residential quarters. But those centers were dismantled by some parties who threatened to kill the NCP elements, "reported the governor.
According to him registration in the first day amounted to 1066 voters, 657, 800, and 566 in the following three days.
Addressing a press conference held last Saturday at the SMC premises, NCP Khartoum Deputy Chief, Dr. Mandour Almahdi reported apparent registration violations committed by the SPLM. He added that the movement was intimidating operators who had been persuading southerners to approach the centers.
It is worth noting that the NCP threatens not to recognize the referendum outcome should the referendum national commission fail to put right registration violations.
The memorandum raised by the Highest Council of Peace and Unity consists of violations under the following articles of the 2010- Law of Referendum in Sudan:
1. Article No. (22)
2. Article No. (23)
3. Article No. (25)
4. Article No. (26).
5. Article No. (27)
6. Article No. (49).
7. Article No. (51).
8. Article No. (51).
9. Article No. (54).
Here are some of the violations committed by commission's workers:
First: the ages of some of the workers are less than 40 years and this contradicts conditions of the appointment of the workers of the commission.
Second: refusal of registering southerners who have a northerner parents; this is a violation according to Article No. 25.
Third: (A) Observers in registration centers don't represent all southern tribes and the commission asks each person who wants to register to bring his/her Sultan with him/he the thing makes registration impossible.
(B) Refusal of housing certificate issued by the local authorities in addition to the refusal of military cards.
Fourth: Delay of the procedures of registration as the members of the commission arrive late and leave before the accredited time the thing wastes times.
Fifth: the members in the registration centers are at variance with intentionally so as to delay the process and such practice is a violation according to article No. 54.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=63450

Juba authorities accused of arresting unity campaigner
Zuhair Hamid Suleiman is the deputy secretary of the NCP Youth committee and chairman of the youth subcommittee at the higher committee for the support of unity established by President Omer Al-Bashir on 7 November.
He was arrested Saturday at Juba airport and taken to unknown destination, said Abdel Mutti Mohamed Kheir, an official at the NCP Youth Secretariat, today in a statement released in Khartoum. He further said that Zuhair is supervising the NCP campaign in the greater Upper Nil states.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article37001

[M-A Lagrange]

Apparently, SAF bombed South once again…

North warplanes raid South Sudan, SPLA says
Four Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLA) soldiers and two civilians were critically injured when three helicopter gunships allegedly bombed an army base at Kiir Adem, an area located 45 miles away from Aweil North County, Northern Bahr el Ghazal state of Southern Sudan.
Kuol Athuai Hal, Aweil North Commissioner told Sudan Tribune by phone that Wednesday’s strike, which occurred at about mid-day, involved two jet fighter planes and anti-aircraft allegedly belonging to north-based Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).
"The two military aircrafts of the Sudan Armed Forces bombarded us again today in rotational shift. They were rotating bombardments. When one was bombing another was flying about in the sky waiting the other one to finish. They started at 10: am till 12: pm,” commissioner Hal told Sudan Tribune.
"There is a weakness on the side of our forces here. Why allowing the armed forces to bomb them twice. Why allowed them to kill our innocent civilian. What is the mandate of the SPLA if they cannot protect civilians,” asked Lual in a war like tone

http://www.sudantribune.com/North-wa...uth-Sudan.html

On the referendum registration side, it’s not going that well. Between 34 and 40% of the population in South did register up to now. Bt what is interesting is what is happening abroad.
It’s hard to say that Kampala is a NCP bastion… It rather seems that countries around are not that ready to have an independent South Sudan as neighbour:

Referendum Commission Investigates Threats to South Sudan Refugees in Uganda
The National Commission for South Sudan Referendum has reported that its committee in Uganda is investigating claims of phone- threats against south Sudan refugees there to prevent their registration for the referendum.

Commission spokesman, George Maker told Sudan Vision that they received clear information regarding the party that practiced such threats and their committee was investigating the cases.

http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/modu...icle&sid=63607

Death threats target Southern Sudanese in Uganda so as not register
Staff from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) running the registration have also received menacing calls and letters.
"There have been death threats by telephone, in letters, banging on doors in the middle of the night," a diplomatic source told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The source said the threats were targeting potential voters and staff working for the IOM. The Geneva-based migration organization declined to comment.
There has been conflicting reports last week that emerged saying that the SPLM asked Southerners in Uganda to boycott the registration but the ex-rebel movement denied making such a call.

http://www.sudantribune.com/Death-th...-Southern.html

And finally, an interesting exercise: how much would cost a war between North and South and can parties afford it?

Sudan: cost of a future war could be over $100bn
25 November 2010 - The Aegis Trust today released our new report on the future economic cost of war in Sudan. It finds the potential costs, conservatively estimated, could be over $100bn. In particular, costs could include:
• US$50billion to Sudan itself in lost GDP;
• US$25billion of GDP relative to a more stable situation in neighbouring countries; and
• US$30 billion in peacekeeping and humanitarian costs to the international community.

http://www.aegistrust.org/Sudan/-Dar...ver-100bn.html

[M-A Lagrange]

From the Northern Bar El Ghazal front…

Over 2,500 civilians flee aerial attacks in Sudan’s Northern Bahr el Ghazal
November 28, 2010 (ABYEI) – Locals and officials from Northern Bahr el Ghazal on Sunday reported that 2,500 civilians have fled areas at the north –south borders fearing aerial attack on the area by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).
"The previous bombardments which seriously violated the [Comprehensive Peace Agreement] CPA and referendum law, led to the displacement of 2,500 people in the area. This displacement at a time of voter registration has prompted the state high executive committee for referendum to relocate registration center formerly located at Kiir Adem to Malek Miir," said Kuot.
Kuol Athuai Hal, commissioner of the area in a separate telephone interview with Sudan Tribune from Gokmachar, the administrative headquarters of Aweil North County, also confirmed occurrence of the displacement, saying recent attacks have encouraged people to leave.
"People are moving toward middle and low land areas now. Everything is being moved. Children and elderly people are being sent out. They are leaving their original homes because they fear other attacks," Athuai said.
Colonel Deng Thiep Akok, former member of south Sudan legislative Assembly in Juba also said that they have received reports from relatives and authorities in the area on similar displacements.
"The information I have from communications and daily contacts with relatives and local authorities indicate that a lot of people started moving out of their homes at the extreme north of the area. This started on Thursday after the area was attacked again," said Akok.

http://www.sudantribune.com/Over-2-5...ee-aerial.html

SPLM backs south Sudan’s president against reprisal attack
"We know advantage and disadvantage of war. This is why we appear reluctant because we put interest of our people as first priority because we know the 9th of January about few weeks away. So we must all put collective efforts to seeing this day becomes and answer to what our people need. Therefore, he said, we must try to avoid anything that would trigger return to war because it is obvious that national congress party and those who would wish the south to constantly remain in the northern bondage wants a retaliatory attack to light the flames of another prolonged war", Makueng said.
However, Awach Anei Wal, an intellectual from Northern Bahr el Ghazal blamed the south Sudan government for not releasing a statement on the incident.
"The fact that government of south [Sudan] did not release a statement or anything official condemning this incident is quite alarming. It seems that the leadership does not even care about its people, the people of Mading Aweil," Wal said.

http://www.sudantribune.com/SPLM-bac...president.html

What is quite interesting in addition to this military show of force is the new press offensive by Khartoum against Juba:

Sudanese official accuse Juba of planning to topple Khartoum government
November 27, 2010 (KHARTOUM) — A Sudanese presidential adviser accused on Thursday the southern Sudan ruling Party, Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) of planning to topple the government of President Omer Hassan Al-Bashir.
Abdallah Massar, told a meeting with local political leaderships held in Nyala, capital of South Darfur state that the SPLM plans to undertake a military action aiming to topple the Islamic regime in Khartoum.
According to the official SUNA, the Presidential adviser who leads a splinter faction of Party Umma said this hostile operation would start next March and with attacks from southern Blue Nile, Abyei and Nuba Mountains in southern Kordofan.

http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudanese...e-Juba-of.html

Sudan’s NCP says it is prepared for ’Plan B’ against the SouthAccording to a report published on Thursday by the pro-government daily Akhir-Lahza, Gosh was addressing a public rally at Karima town in the Northern state when he accused the SPLM of refusing to sign agreements relating to post-referendum arrangements under the influence of the U.S.
The presidential adviser also claimed that the U.S. had asked the SPLM not to cede the central contested area of Abyei, saying that the Washington has “hijacked” the ex-Southern rebel group.
Gosh said that the NCP was ready for its own “plan B” should the SPLM violate the CPA cautioning that the “battle smoke would cover the south and not the north.”
Salah Gosh even made an apathetic statement about south Sudan secession, saying that separation would not be evil and if it did happen, “we would turn to building the south and in that case, God will have removed the burden of developing and creating infrastructure in the south.”

http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudan-s-...-prepared.html

I do not know what was the plan A (probably the CPA) but the SPLM plan B to take over Khartoum is long gone with Garang’s death. The ones who do need an ennemy to stay in power today seems to be the NCP.
Out of the pure need of dictatorial regimes to have ennemies, those declarations come also in a tense political context in Egypt where the Islamist opposition has lost the elections. The Muslim Brotherhood is not only opposition in Egypt but also in Sudan. The heat Cairo is taking with Muslim Brotherhood will affect Khartoum sooner or later. Deturn attention on SPLM might be the solution Khartoum found for the momment.

[M-A Lagrange]

North Bahr el-Ghazal governor denies presence of Darfur rebels
"There are no Darfur rebels that I know operating in Northern Bahr el-Ghazal. I have never seen them. Who said they are in Northern Bahr el-Ghazal should have told you where they are operating, said Governor Awan who was speaking to Sudan Tribune from Aweil town, capital of Northern Bahr el Ghazal.
The governor added that calm returned to the area. "The area is calm. The general security situation in the state is relatively calm. The issue which created panic and fear along the far north border areas of the state in Aweil North County was the recent aerial attacks there but security there has returned to normal," said governor Awan.

http://www.sudantribune.com/North-Ba...-governor.html

South Sudan minister invites Khartoum to prove region is supporting Darfur rebels
“It time for our brothers in the north to come clean on some of these waves of allegations. Anyone who still thinks Darfur rebels leaders are hiding in the south should come and identify them. Infact, I will be more than willing to accompany them in arresting them in this process,” said Marial, who was flanked by Mustapha Biong, the Ministry’s Director General for Information.
“They are people in the north who do not want referendum to be conducted. They appear to have forgotten that the right to self determination for the people south Sudan was discussed and agreed by the two parties in the Naivasha,” said Minister Marial.
He said leadership of the two parties pledged commitment to implement the agreement at the time of singing in the presence of international community.
"The two parties pledged their commitment to fully implement the agreement in good faith and to the spirit of which it was negotiated but I do not understand why the Sudan Armed Forces launched offensive attack to drive our people out of their homes during registration. Why sabotaged voter registration?" asked minister Marial.
He said failure of Khartoum government to make unity an attractive option to the south Sudanese during the last six year of interim period shows that Northern Sudan is not interested in united Sudan.
“There is nothing that shows the north is interested in united Sudan," he said.
"They have not made unity option an attractive choice during the last six year of interim period instead they made secession more attractive option to the south Sudan people they have failed to convince them," Marial explained.

http://www.sudantribune.com/South-Su...r-invites.html

What ever you or I think (I have no opinion, that’s not my country), he is right about making unity attractive. Just have a look at what North official says:

South Sudan’s secession will rid the country from 3 "lousy neighbors": official
The Amman-based Al-Arab Al-Youm newspaper cited the Sudanese ambassador in Jordan Mohamed Osman Saeed as saying that Southern Sudanese want unity but said that certain parties are applying pressure so that separation is the outcome.
However, the Sudanese diplomat said that in the event of secession the North "will gain a good neighbor and will be relieved from three lousy neighbors".
He did not name the three countries but after the country’s breakup North Sudan will have no borders with Uganda, Kenya or the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

http://www.sudantribune.com/South-Su...will-rid,37126
With diplomats like this, you don’t even need wikyleaks…

[M-A Lagrange]

For a free, fair and transparent democratic consultation for administrations’ staffs follow the SOP:

Jonglei to fire unregistered officials

The Governor of Jonglei State, Kuol Manyang Juuk has said that his government will dismiss officials who refuse to register for the ongoing registration exercise for the forthcoming South Sudan Referendum scheduled for January 9. The move by the Governor is to encourage more people to list for the expected vote for independence in a referendum next year.
"Official who is not registered for the referendum should be terminated including those who will not vote on January 9th", Kuol Manyang Juuk has said.

http://jubapost.org/index.php?option...news&Itemid=67

More seriously, the things keep on going not good:

SPLA say that 12 soldiers killed by northern militia in Unity state

SPLA spokesperson Philip Aguer told Reuters that the attack occurred 25 kilometers north of Unity state’s capital Bentiu.
He claimed that 12 people had been killed in the ambush including 10 “10 SPLA soldiers and two civilians."
"They are definitely militia backed from Khartoum," he said. "It was a very coordinated attack."
The Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) controlled by Sudan’s Khartoum-based National Congress Party (NCP) has denied the attack took place.
"This is completely untrue — it’s not possible we have anyone in Unity state," SAF spokesman al-Sawarmi Khaled told Reuters.
The north-south U.N. peacekeeping mission (UNMIS) confirmed the attack to Reuters but could not identify the aggressors.
"We are aware of that an SPLA truck with soldiers and their families was ambushed by an unknown group yesterday ... in Unity state," said UNMIS spokesman Kouider Zerrouk.

http://www.sudantribune.com/SPLA-say...s-killed,37142

Truth is, at this stage, it could be anyone. Do not forget that South Sudan is like the wild wild west (without James West And Artemus Gordon unfortunately), bandits are everywhere and sometime much better equiped than SPLA.
Wait and see…

[M-A Lagrange]

Here are some news from North Sudan and the problematic of Islamist opposition. Some may have felt that my point linking the events in Egypt and the referendum in Sudan a little hard to get, but thanks to the Islamist opponents, here is the link:

Sudanese Islamist calls on president Bashir to resign
Al-Tayeb Zain al-Abdeen, who is a professor of Political Science at the University of Khartoum, was reacting to Bashir’s cancelled appearance at two events this week in Libya and the Central African Republic (CAR).
"President Al-Bashir must sacrifice himself for the sake of the nation to save it from existing and projected sanctions by stepping down from power and to establish a national transitional situation before holding new elections in the North agreed upon between the political forces after a period of stabilized conditions"

http://www.sudantribune.com/Sudanese...calls-on,37180

Al right, for those who will read the full article, al-Abdeen use the problematic of Sudan and more especially Bashir isolation in the regional political scene (Cf IGAD and EU-Africa submits). But this comes just after the Muslim Brotherhood got evicted from the political scene in Egypt. Sudan was, and still is, one of their strong bastions. Egypt and Sudan government are on the same line on Islamist political opposition (Cf Al Turabi misfortune after the 2010 elections).
NCP and Bashir in particular need an enemy to picture Sudan as a free country under siege by western powers for cultural/civilisation reasons and remain in power. But by doing so, he also accidentally opened the door for the Islamist opposition to attack him. Very wisely, the Islamist opposition choose the international community line as the “Arab line” would have disserved them and has proven to be inefficient in all neighbouring countries.
Could that be a unexpected side effect of the referendum and Bashir ending up in ICC a surprising collateral damage. I personally doubt of it, for many reasons but mainly because it would create a pro Islamist power vaccum in Sudan, something that no one, and certainly not Egypt or Ethiopia, wants.


Now back to the crazy Abyei situation:
I took some times before coming with the developments of the situation there but as a new round of discussions is opening; I thought it would e interesting to come back to it. Especially as he Misseriya decided to play the loose gun and be the wild cart in a loosing game.

Misseriya forms alternative government for AbyeiDecember 04, 2010 (KHARTOUM) – Chieftains of Al-Misseriya tribe has established an alternative government to supplant the current administration of the oil-producing area of Abyei, Al-Sahafah daily newspaper reported on Thursday.
Al-Misseriya is a group of cattle-herding nomads who have traditionally crossed the borders into Abyei area for nearly nine months a year to graze their cattle. The governing National Congress Party (NCP) in north Sudan wants Al-Misseriya to vote in the referendum whereas the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) of South Sudan insists that only Dinka Ngok are eligible to vote.
The new government, which has been scheduled to assume its responsibilities as of 25 December, is composed of 10 ministers. Members of the new government were selected at a meeting held on December 02 in northern Abyei.
The meeting selected Abdul Rahman Bikhtal to head the new government and Tariq Omer Shafiqah as deputy governor.
The move comes in response to an announcement by members of Dinka Ngok tribe last week that they would organize their own referendum if the NCP and the SPLM failed to break the deadlock over Abyei vote.
Tariq Omer, the deputy chairman of the new government, told Al-Sahafah that the step was a response to threats by activists of the Denka Ngok tribe

http://www.sudantribune.com/Misseriy...ernative,37161

Abyei MP calls Misseriya alternative government a “mockery”December 5, 2010 (JUBA) - The MP for Abyei has strongly criticized the recently formation of an alternative government in the oil-producing by the Misseriya tribe, who are demanding a right to vote in a referendum to decide the region’s future.
Abyei MP Arop Madut Arop responded to the move by saying it was “mere mockery system” created by a “merchant class of Arab slave traders with business mentality”.
He denied reports that the Dink Ngok tribe were planning to organize their own referendum, should the NCP and their southern counterparts, Sudan’s Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) failed to break the deadlock over Abyei vote.
The MP also accused Thabo Mbeki, the former South African President, who currently head the African Union high level implementation panel on Sudan, for “taking sides” in the ongoing Abyei negotiations.
“Thabo Mbeki has lost neutrality in the mediation process. His [Mbeki’s] brother has business links with the Khartoum regime and this is something we all know about. Now, how do you expect such a person to act as a mediator on sensitive issues like the one on Abyei?” Arop asked.

http://www.sudantribune.com/Abyei-MP...isseriya,37176

That could be just a joke but… It’s already had consequences on the field.
This shows clearly that there is a need of important soft component in the field at grass roots level. I’m not too much of a chamberlain fan and the communities comes first theory but in state building and peace building, there is definitively a need to have a better awareness/education community’s oriented component. Especially in areas where communities over and sudden become the stake of State/Peace building. Most of the time, they never saw any form of government during the past 50 years and from one day to another, without really fully understanding what is going on, they have to behave in accordance with the Law, respect a government and administration…
And I perfectly know that it is a burden for most of us. Even a threat to the fragile government to be in some cases. But what the Misseriya are doing is just proving that they got it all right: we do not want to be an instrument of the North or the South, so we create our own State. And this mess up a little more the North/South talks but in fact increase our representation in the talk. Will the State department go to discuss with the Misseriya government… That’s another story.