South Sudan: Watching a fragile nation

[M-A Lagrange]

SPLM Secretary General visits Japan
October 28, 2009 (KHARTOUM) — The Secretary General of the Southern Sudan ruling party who is visiting Tokyo discussed yesterday with the Japanese state secretary for foreign affairs the implementation of the peace process and South’s development.
Mr Pagan Amum, the Secretary General of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) is visiting Tokyo at the invitation of the Japanese foreign ministry.
Mr. Tetsuro Fukuyama, State Secretary for Foreign Affairs of Japan and Pagan on October 27 discussed southern Sudan development and the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
The meeting comes two weeks after a similar visit to Tokyo by Mutrif Siddiq, Sudanese Under-Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Fukuyama and Mutrif discussed economic cooperation, the CPA implementation and Darfur conflict resolution process.
Fukuyama stated that the new administration of the Government of Japan would continue and strengthen the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) process and actively address issues faced by Africa.
(ST)

They make less noise than the Chinese but they are everywhere in Africa. I met them in Chad, in DRC, in South Sudan…
It may come some how a little wired when they ask you if they can feed their tamagochy… And you are in the middle of nowhere.

From Reuters:
South Sudan probably faces corruption affair.
http://www.euroinvestor.fr/news/story.aspx?id=10701459
Unfortunately the link in is French but I am sure you can find it in English.
While nearly 1.2 million people are starving because of drought, GoSS officials pass contracts to import food for more than 3 billion US dollars.
The whole GoSS budget is 3.5 billion Sudanese Pounds… (Around 1.2 billion US$).

Those guys… Are they for real?

Kiir in Kenya: Borders Demarcation Federal JurisdictionStaff Writer
http://www.sudanvisiondaily.com/index.php

FVP, GoSS President, Lt. Gen. Salva Kiir Mayardit, who is visiting Kenya, held a meeting with the Kenyan President, Mwai Kibaki, where they discussed bilateral relations, CPA implementation progress and other issues of common interest.

Following that presidential meeting, GoSS Minister for Regional Cooperation, Oyay Deng Ajak, held a press conference jointly with the Kenyan Minister of Internal Affairs, Jeijer Shuang Alonq, on the issues discussed in the behind-closed-doors presidential meeting.
Ajak reported that the presidential meeting has decided the establishment of a joint committee for resolving the issues that caused conflicts between the respective Sudanese- Kenyan border tribes of Toposa and Turkana, adding that the two sides stressed the need to work jointly for restoring the peaceful coexistence that was prevailing before the current conflicts. He further stated that borders demarcation jurisdiction is vested in the Federal Government rather than GoSS.

What I like with South Sudan it is that when it goes bad, it goes really bad.
In addition to nearly being at war with Kenya, their ally and troops trainer, they just come out with a financial scandal.

Those guys just remind me some militia war lord from the bush you can find in DRC. They go to war in the name of the people, kill and harass the people they fight for and when in power miss use and abuse of their power.

Concerning Kenya army training… I’m not specialised in tanks but the body count is actually 30 kenyan policement against 2 Toposa youth.
Cattle raiders are crazy as they do it for pride and social status. But it does not look too good for SPLA in a North South war revival.

Ah, Garang… Where are you? We need you so much!

[davidbfpo]

Thanks to Professor Borum. He has id'd a website monitoring events in Sudan (not just the South): http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/files...dan/sudan.html and there is a list of other websites.

[M-A Lagrange]

Thanks David for reminding me that Sudan does exist… Time to end up vacations.

Good news, the ICRC hostages are in good shape according to them.
One million each. Sounds cheap, doesn't it.

keep on fighting.


Then comes the as usual depressive news from South…

US envoy discusses CPA with Sudanese adviser
November 17, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – Ghazi Salah Al-Deen, Sudanese Presidential adviser and the visiting US envoy to Sudan Scott Gration discussed today the CPA implementation and Doha peace process to settle Darfur conflict.
Mr. Gration will continue to push for a compromise between the two signatories of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) over referendum bill. On Darfur issue the US envoy plans to visit displaced camps and Jebel Marra to support groups planning to hold a unity conference there.
Gration’s visit is a continuation of the efforts of the U.S. envoy to resolve the Darfur problem and to complete the interrupted talks between the two peace partners —National Congress Party and SPLM — on the CPA implementation, said Ghazi following his meeting with Gration Tuesday.
He further added that American proposals put forward by Gration during his previous visit are still under study and it is on the table for discussion between the NCP and SPLM.
The US envoy proposed to hold nex April only elections for the Sudanese presidency and the post of president of southern Sudan government, as well as state governors. He asked to adjourn the legislative elections to the period of after the southern Sudan referebda. Further Gration suggested extend the National Assembly membership from 450 to 510 seats.
The US envoy proposed to the two peace partners during his last visit also to accept the results of the fifth census but to amend the constitution in order to prevent modification of the peace agreement with a number of voters less than 80%. Also he suggests guarantying southern Sudan 30% of the executive power as it is the case currently.
The SPLM withdrew from the National Assembly on Oct 19, saying it wants parliamentary schedule for the remaining laws of referendum and national security.
The southern Sudan party further said the current draft of security law enables the security apparatus to arrest, search and detain, adding all these are against the constitution.
(ST)

[M-A Lagrange]

As Sudan prepares for elections, North and South are debating over deep and fundamental ideas.

North police just jailed SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amur and Yassir Arman for participating to a demo in Khartoum.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33374
As reply, South SPLM supporters burned NCP offices in Wau and vandalised NCP cars in Rumbek. http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33385, http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33384
In the mean time, North Sudan official media announced that UN are supporting Bashir… http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33373

I jailed your politicians against I burn your stuff… A great lesson of democracy in deed.
Well, I cannot blame SPLM. But as they say, if SPLM-DC wins the election: we (SPLA/SPLM) make a coup; if NCP win the elections in South: we make a coup; if my friend and military commanders do not win the elections: we make a coup…
So why do we want them to have elections?
Would not be easier and less efforts consuming to say: ok you have a gun then you are in power?

After Iraq, DRC and Afghanistan electoral processes, Sudan elections are strongly questioning the democracy/electoral postulate of stabilization and peace building.

More western powers are promoting democracy, more it looks like a standard colonial process with fake occidental like practices to empower friendly interlocutors.
But that’s probably all what satbilization, peace building and nation building are about.

[M-A Lagrange]

Darfur hostages threaten of death by Freedom Eagles in Africa
The head of Freedom Eagles of Africa, Abu Mohamed Rizeigi, told the AFP on Thursday November 26, they are targeting French aid workers to force French government to change its policy in the region.
He further warned they would attack the French diplomat and troops based in Chad.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33419

The situation is getting worst and worst in sub Saharan Africa for relief workers.
I am sure the guys in Abeche and N’djamena are already shaking like leaves….
More seriously, as insurgents or bandits taking political agenda cover in Africa are missing legitimate targets or are too afraid to target French paratroopers and other legionnaires taking some rest on the continent, they turn to civilians.
It raises the question of civilian participating to non war related nation building/support. Expatriated civilian seems to be safer and more secure in at war locations.

Talking about the situation in South Sudan and the progresses of the nation building process (you know, the promotion of peaceful and democratic resolution of conflicts and power sharing issues), I really like the SPLM last electoral move:

Gen Kiir forms South Sudan military command council
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33407
Just before starting the SPLM candidates selection process starts.

South Sudan democratic nation building process is really on tracks now… First you build the military apparatus and then you designate your candidates for elections.
I do not know where this is leading us but it is clear that the democratic elections on the continent (Chad 2005, DRC 2006, Kenya 2008, Zimbabwe…) are more and more looking like a formal process for western like endorsement of military dictatorship.
Only 20 year ago a wind of hope was blowing on Africa as Berlin wall was falling and democracies were overthrowing communist totalitarian regimes. Now, as Iraq and Afghanistan have completely washed out democratic elections processes credibility, Africa dictators to be are coming back to their old practices. In a global world: what is happening in one place has global impact.

It is far from being good news for African people but even a worst one for western countries. If the theory of global insurgency is correct, a global civilian surge is needed. The marches of the democracies’ empire are falling. Africa is proving us everyday that democracy enforcement and nation building is not just a formal exercise that western powers can tickle and abuse!

For all the soft rebels with a cause: Keep on fighting men!

[M-A Lagrange]

Sudan referendum law endorsed in cabinet, 51% ‘Yes’ vote & 60% turnout required
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33451

This shows how bad Khartoum wants to get rip of South Sudan. Well at their place I would do the same: South Sudan government went to bankrupt not even 5 years after being in charge.
There is ethnic violence all over the place.
Oil plants are in North, oil fields in South not exploited.
And basically no state and even less nation in South… Government even went to warn its administration members against self promotions for higher salaries.

Good news for once! :

Two UNAMID staff released by Darfur hostage takers
December 13, 2009 (KHARTOUM) – Kidnappers in Darfur today released two civilian employees of the joint United Nations-African Union peacekeeping mission. The Nigerian man and Zimbabwean woman had been held since August 2009.
http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33454

And now the proof that I am a master of evil in control of the world not knowing it, just like annonced in the The Conspiracy Thread

Sudan points fingers at France in stirring this week’s demonstrations
The Sudanese government today accused France of standing behind the demonstrations staged this week by a coalition of Northern opposition parties along with the Sudan People Liberation Movement (SPLM).

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article33444

Yes we do do that sometimes… But we don’t take hostages!
And supporting “nice guys” as Hassan Al-Turabi… Yes we do do that also, sometimes… But we don’t take hostages!
Supporting the ICC and support Bashir arrest… Yes we definitively do do that. But we don’t take hostages!
Meeting with armed movements from Darfur? Oh yes, we do do that! For the best or the worst. Depend on which end of the gun you are.

For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!

[M-A Lagrange]

Sorry, today, I did not have time to look for English versions.

Angelina Joli criticizes Barak Obama on Darfour.

http://www.parismatch.com/People-Mat...-Obama-152319/

Just to give an idea, here is the US strategy for Sudan:
The U.S. strategy in Sudan must focus on ending the suffering in Darfur, and building a lasting peace. The three principal U.S. strategic priorities in Sudan include:
• 1) A definitive end to conflict, gross human rights abuses, and genocide in Darfur.
• 2) Implementation of the North-South CPA that results in a peaceful post-2011 Sudan, or an orderly path toward two separate and viable states at peace with each other.
• 3) Ensure that Sudan does not provide a safe haven for international terrorists.


About the hostages:

Also, Chadian general Oki Dagache accused Sudanese secret services to be behind the 3 French hostages’ abductions in Chad and Central Africa.
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/depeches/0...24@7-60,0.html

For all the soft rebels with a cause: keep on fighting men!

[negotiator6]

Nuba Mountain, South Kordafan State: 2002
Juba, Sudan 2007-08

All the comments are generally exactly correct. The situation in Sudan was once defined by one of the locals as similar to an onion; peel off one layer and you find another layer of discord, tribalism and conflict.

I was at the celebration of the opening of the SPLA HQ in 2008. President of GOSS Kiir was the speaker; most in the SPLA/M understand the aspirations of John Garang was for a united Sudan; but, what from what I understand Kirr will support an independent Southern Sudan.

This split within the "party" is the foundation for armed conflict within the tribes in the South, accurately defined as the Dinka and Neuer tribes. I might add, the Vice President of GOSS is Neuer.

The entire foundation is based on oil. The Abeyei region in the along the disputed north-south "border" is where the "money is". Even, if the south could secure that region, the oil pipeline runs north past Khartom to the Port of Sudan. The Nuba Mountains is adjacent to the pipeline and under the control of the SPLA..I was in the mountains with the 5th SPLA Front in 2002 commanded by Ismael Karmis..the governor was Abdul Azziz (he remains governor today of South Kordafar State). The SPLA would attack the pipeline daily interrupting the flow. That said, the cease fire agreement signed in late 2001 just for Nuba Mountains was designed to lay the ground work for the CPA and to stop all military action against the pipeline. Nuba Mountains actually is located in the "north"..and as such, was a critical component to the CPA signed in January of 2005.

Should the south "vote" to succeed from Sudan forming a new African state..they would have no access to ports, no pipeline, no all weather roads and surrounded by countries which may or may not support a future Southern Sudanese state (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, DRC)

Other issues I have personal experience includes the UN initiative at DDR..De-mining, Disarm and Re-Integration (the most difficult part).

The UN's ability to organize a "true" election, plus all the other critical components is marginal at best.

And, lastly...the LRA..I absolutely agree..these guys must be killed or captured.

Sudan will be a struggle for many years to come. It was one hell of an experience....

RH

Other travels include SE Afgh/2003 and Iraq/2005..plus the Balkan Wars

[M-A Lagrange]

South Sudan would face humanitarian crisis after referendum

"We have to be ready, we have to have plans," said Southern Sudan government Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management James Kok Ruea before UN officials and aid groups in a meeting held in Juba today.
"The needs will be enormous, so we will need your support," he added.
[…]
"If the Islamic system in the north (National Congress Party government) decided to interrupt the smooth running of the referendum, then what do you think the situation is going to be?" He asked. "There will be tension and likely it will go back to war," he further added.
"What happens when fighting takes place? People are killed, properties are lost, the most vulnerable group are children, women, and elderly people. There would be massive displacement," he warned.
The U.N. Deputy Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Southern Sudan, Lise Grande, said donors have been very generous with Southern Sudan but said many people in the south still suffer..
Tribal violence in Southern Sudan last year killed some 700 people and displaced over 150,000, the UN reported.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article36012

Ok, that minister to keep his job needs a war. But in fact, he is so representative of South Sudan administration. SPLM and SPLA members do not know how to manage peace. If you give a close look at the situation, there is no police dispatch in rural areas, no real administration at county level… Then no real justice, no real understanding of the State and then democratic game by villagers.
The policemen are being kept as bodyguards by administrative staff in State/Province capital as if they were personal armies. They still manage the place as if they were in the bush fighting, securing road trades for personnal enrichment…
Even if South Sudan does not go at war with North, they will try to keep this place is state of emergency to have external powers to run it and flowed them with relief aid. What they do not get is that every body is tired of this, starting by the donors.
Still a long road to go for the people of South Sudan.